There are a number of reasons why I suspect that it will be likely that COVID-19 vaccination certificates will become the norm in many parts of the world.

The transmissability of the disease person-to-person is far higher for COVID-19 than it is for Yellow Fever and whilst the fatality rate is lower it is possibly for the disease to rip through a community very quickly infecting many people. So whilst the fatality rate is a little lower than Yellow Fever depending on your age group and where you are being treated far more people infected and so more people die.

It is an easy, cheap fix to ensure that people coming in are less likely to be bringing in the virus - why wouldn't you take an easy option?

The duration of the immunity that is offered is unknown at thsi is point but the duration of similar vaccines is around 18 months - the expectation is that the COVID-19 vaccine will follow a similar timeline for efficacy. This may mean that we will all have to have a routine vaccination to boost the levels and to introduce immunity for new strains as they emerge.

As for forcing people, well when you visit a country you have to play by their rules and it may be that they say "no vaccination, no entry". No one is forcing you to go to that country, it is your choice. Whether that country is France or the DRC is irrelevant, it is their rules. It may be that the government stipulate that requirement for pubs / restaurants for a period of time - given a choice between limited opening for those that have had the vaccine or closed completely I will go for the partial opening.

As regards the stopping of giving the AZ vaccine to under 30s well our middle child (21 years old) has had her first dose as she is classified as extremely vulnerable (she has a dodgy immune system but this vaccine is OK for her - not all are) and she will be bhaving the second dose as planned. The highest risk for her is if she gets COVID - as the risk of the clot is lower then she will minimise the overall risk by getting the vaccine.

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You will have to do without pocket handkerchiefs, and a great many other things, before we reach our journey's end, Bilbo Baggins. You were born to the rolling hills and little rivers of the Shire, but home is now behind you. The world is ahead.