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Photo by Marc Gibaud, Clouds on Tres Cerros and Mount Fitzroy, Argentinian Patagonia

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Photo by Marc Gibaud,
Clouds on Tres Cerros and
Mount Fitzroy, Argentinian Patagonia



View Poll Results: Should Britain leave the E.U. ?
Yes 109 50.00%
No 46 21.10%
No.. But things MUST change 38 17.43%
I don't care 14 6.42%
Undecided 11 5.05%
Voters: 218. This poll is closed

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  #11  
Old 19 May 2016
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Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: London
Posts: 18
An outside opinion

I'm relatively new to HUBB, so I should probably confess two (or three) things about myself first:

1. As I recently broke a few bones in an accident, I currently got way too much time, which is probably why I read through way too many comments here - no offense!

2. I am German by birth and citizenship (living snd working in the UK for some 5 years now), so I'm not unbiased to all of this but can perhaps contribute to somewhat of an outside view on this.

3. I am an economist and, having previously worked in finance, am currently doing a PhD in international monetary economics. So I can say a few things about the economic arguments being made.

I can understand the emotional case people make for Brexit in the UK to a certain degree. Britain has a very proud tradition of the oldest parliament in the world among with the pioneers of free markets and human rights, and it has defended this continent against evil in some of its darkest times, which was appreciated by the turn of history with the loss of an empire. Given all that, advise coming from the other side of the channel is understandably not always appreciated.

But then there is the reality of international policy in a globalising world: We don't live in a colonial world any more and and we face a whole bunch of problems that require international cooperation. And for that we need to move to a new understanding of governance, one based on international cooperation. Where we negotiate international treaties that are then defining our understanding on how we work and live together, trade, travel; how we protect ourselves from abuse, fraud, our consumers from malpractice etc. Since these treaties are being negotiated, one will have to commit to compromises and, yes, it implies a loss of sovereignty.

Then there is the economics of it. The biggest case seems to be made about migration. Europe seems to be overrun by refugees, in constant crisis and as a consequence everyone seems to want to the UK. First, let's establish that there is a difference between a refugee and an economic migrant and that Europe is by no means overrun by refugees, but rather behaving like a giant ***** in the light of crises in our direct neighbourhood, that we have in many cases at least contributed to. Let's also establish that roughly as many Brits live on the continent as vice versa. But more importantly, that immigration is a good thing! And yes, even in low wage segment.

A paper on the economic effects of the balkan refugee wave on the Danish labour market was published this year! Interestingly, since it used panel data one could "follow" specific cohorts of sample individuals and in away track the careers of people. It turned out that, yes, migration did increase competitive pressure in the lower wage segments. But, because the Danish labour market is very flexible, people reacted to this pressure simply by moving occupations to more productive jobs. This led to an increase in wages and employment throughout the whole labour market spectrum. Other research is usually inconclusive or shows insignificant effects for low-wage migration. But I don't know of any recent reputable paper that shows unambiguously significant negative effects of migration. So what matters isn't migration but the labour market structure.

Then, there seems an odd conviction of the British that the continent would be economically dragging along. As a matter of fact recent figures suggest that the UK is actually growing below average in the EU, that average income, taking living costs into account, is about average, that overall welfare as measured by the HDI is about average. Yes, the Euroarea is a bit of a pain but given the crises it was confronted with it is doing alright - there were crucial reforms to banking supervision, and, although not complete, a banking union is almost standing. The banking sector has consolidated (not just in Europe) and public finances in most countries have improved. But, yes, there still is a long way to go. But then, we were hit by quite some crises, and the UK has a quite a bit of a public deficit as well I believe. So no exception here.

Now, trade. Well, it's actually quite simple. The EU is a customs union. If you leave it you gotta pay tariffs. Thinking that you just simply adopted a no tariff free-trade regime sounds nice, but is also incredibly naive. Do you really think the government would simply scrap all tariffs? Come on! Think Tata, to name just one example. But also examples of tariffs or embargo's used as tools for foreign policy? Surely, the EU's protectionist policies were often horrendous - especially agricultural subsidies. But that has lost more and more in significance. In fact the often dreaded common agricultural subsidies took more than 70% of the EU budget in 1982. Now it's just about a third. When it comes to trade, don't fool yourselves. Yes, Germans will still be selling cars, and French food to the UK but it'll be more expensive and hence less. But more importantly, they'll be all too keen locking up their service sectors and that'll be a real blow to finance in the UK.

Regulation. Yes, there is silly regulation coming from Brussels. But guess what, you'll find that everywhere and Brussels bureaucracy is actually relatively small considering the size of the single market. Most of it actually considers norms and consumer protection. I actually appreciate that electrical appliances need to be tested before they can be sold and that food needs to be labeled. Also, the EN norms I think were quite useful. Yes, indeed, you can go on measuring things in stones, pounds, yards and inches, but sorry... it isn't very practicable. Can you give me one good reason why we should have different power plugs? Emission controls I believe are a good thing as well. Or the ban of certain pesticides or animal protection regulations when it comes to a lot of farming ect. But more importantly, you'll have to meet all these regulations anyway, if you want to trade with the EU.

Well, then, is the EU democratic? Yes, of course it is! All legislation that comes from Brussels has to go through the European parliament and the European Council. Actually, the Lisbon Treaty crucially strengthens the parliament and enabled it to draft own legislation to become the main legislative chamber. The EU Commission is elected by the parliament in the same way every government is and was clearly running campaigns with candidates for the presidency. When just less then half of the population is casting a vote but a clear majority is complaining about a lack of democracy, well whose fault is this then? It seems to me, that the reason people perceive the EU as undemocratic is because national decisions can be overruled. Well, but then a majority of Europeans was against it. That's democracy!

Jurisdiction: The European Charter of Human rights was essentially following a blueprint of an understanding of universal human rights drafted British lawyers after WWII. It enshrined the right to a fair trial, privacy, freedom of speech among other things. It's exercised at the European Courts of Justice in Strasbourg. The UK appoints one of the judges and one advocate general for it. Theresa May has recently criticised it for its rulings on anti terrorism laws and its enforcement on the right for privacy. But frankly, the way the UK government dealt with these rights was at times appalling and people should be more concerned about this. Today I actually saw a discussion on this on the BBC: A "constitutional expert" in defence of Brexit argued against the ECJ because it weren't British judges ruling there. What a condescending thing to say!

But frankly what I found quite surprising is to find so much Euroscepticism on this platform. Of all the people, you are the ones benefitting from it. You travel a lot across Europe and clearly benefit from open borders. You only need one currency in Europe and wouldn't have to deal with a multitude of exchange rates. And I bet many of you got holiday homes in Europe or even live abroad. Not to mention cheap airfares. So, you can't be serious when you want to vote for a lot of hassle to come just for a bit of national pride!

Cheers and apologies that this ended up so massive (as said: too much time)!
 


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