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Originally Posted by Tim Cullis
At the moment Germany appears to have massive power in the EU and the balancing forces should be France and the UK. But France currently tends to act in tandem with Germany.
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In diplomatic historical terms what you quite rightly point in this paragraph is an historical anomaly. Historically, the UK always managed to incite a balance of power between the Germanic and the Francs. Even, the UK has never been shy on putting its weight behind the weakest of the two with the objective of restoring the balance of power in the continent whenever circumstances warranted such action.
It's not as if France is willingly on the side of Germany. France simply doesn't have an alternative right now and Hollande is way too blind to see any other way. Between the rock of Germany and the hard place of ideology, Hollande, like Captain Renault, simply blows with the wind. And the prevailing wind right now happens to come from Berlin. This concubinary relation won't last forever but it's where we are now. What does this mean to the UK? It means that the balance of power in the continent is now much harder to achieve than in the past. But, then again, Brexit may quite well be the straw breaking the camel's back and things revert back to their ancestral course.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Cullis
Should the UK exit, Germany's percentage of the rump EU GDP rises from today's 20% to 25% further increasing the perception of power. Only France is an economic challenge (if challenge is a viable word with Holland running the economy). With argumentative Britain out of the room, Germany will have even more freedom to meld the EU in the direction it wants.
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It might quite well be the real and undeniable end for the EU.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Cullis
Could a rump EU hold together? Would other countries (Netherlands?) be tempted to follow the UK's lead?
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Is there still an EU other than on paper?
The Netherlands? From all countries why did you mention them? Given their affinity with Germany I'd see them as the least probable country to try an exit from the EU. In any event, in case of a Brexit, I see most likely a continued erosion of the EU albeit at a faster pace than what has been happening until now followed by an outright implosion rather than other individual countries following the UK to the exit. But if I had to speculate on this last scenario I'd say that Denmark was the strongest candidate for an exit. The Danexit.
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