Honduras situation as of July 17
From travelsecurity.com:
17 Jul 2009 - Supporters of ousted president block highways across country; further protests scheduled for 17 July
Supporters of ousted president Manuel Zelaya on 16 July blocked several highways across the country, including the northern and southern entrances to the capital Tegucigalpa, in the cities of Comayagua and Copan, and at border crossings with neighbouring El Salvador. Traffic disruption was also reported on roads connecting the north-western city of San Pedro Sula with the cities of Puerto Cortes and Santa Rosa de Copan, as well as at El Durazno, near Tegucigalpa. While the roadblocks in Tegucigalpa were lifted after several hours, Zelaya's supporters have vowed to repeat the protests on 17 July.
Earlier on the same day, the interim government announced that it would be reimposing an overnight curfew, after claiming that Zelaya's supporters were rearming themselves. The curfew will be enforced from 00.30 to 04.30 (local time). Unconfirmed reports had indicated that Zelaya would attempt to return to the country on 16 July; interim president Roberto Micheletti earlier warned that Zelaya might attempt to cross into the country on 18 July from Nicaragua. Additionally, the second round of talks between representatives of Zelaya and Micheletti are scheduled to resume on 18 July in Costa Rica. Meanwhile, the US State Department on 16 July extended its recommendation to defer non-essential travel to the country until 29 July.
Comment and Analysis
The latest incidents indicate that protests in support of Zelaya are likely to continue for as long as the political crisis persists. However, a genuine popular uprising in his favour is highly unlikely. Although the curfew has been reimposed, the overall security situation remains relatively calm. Indeed, while the curfew may be reflective of growing concerns over possible renewed violence, its reinstatement will probably help diminish the risk of widespread violence. Despite the government's claim that protesters were arming themselves, violence linked to the recent political crisis has remained isolated and small in scale.
Protests have been occurring on an almost daily basis since Zelaya was ousted on 28 June; these have mainly focused on government buildings. Demonstrations and associated clashes involving the security forces or rival political groups will become increasingly likely if Zelaya attempts or manages to return to Honduras, appears publicly or is arrested. The security forces are not averse to using heavy-handed measures, including the use of tear gas, water cannon and batons, which will pose an incidental risk to bystanders. Precedents also indicate that Zelaya's supporters may attempt to erect roadblocks in other areas, especially in San Pedro Sula. The authorities had on 5 July closed Toncontín International Airport in Tegucigalpa following fatal clashes there as a plane carrying Zelaya attempted to land, and only announced its reopening three days later; renewed attempts by Zelaya to return to Honduras may trigger a similar response from the authorities and subsequent travel disruption should be expected.
Congress appointed Micheletti interim president following Zelaya's arrest and deportation from the country on the day on which a controversial referendum on constitutional reform was scheduled to be held. The legislature had reportedly unanimously voted in favour of Zelaya's removal, accusing him of violating the constitution and disregarding the orders of the supreme court, which had declared the referendum illegal. Talks between Zelaya and Micheletti's interim government have reached an impasse, though it is unlikely that the ousted president's supporters will seek to incite widespread violence as that would alienate moderate supporters in the international community. The military has thus far shown relative restraint in curbing the political unrest and there is no indication that there will be any significant changes in the country's security environment in the short term.
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