MHO, backofbeyond nailed it when he introduced the price of oil/gas factor - related to the demise of gas burning engines...one of the most difficult challenges for the automobile industry is calculating the future price of oil. As long as gas prices remain affordable, there will be a delay of total electric and hybrids will be having more of a market share. But when manufacturers determine that the market wants electric because the price of oil is too high, there will be made available electric engines. And, the public will buy electric.

Meanwhile the hydrogen engine - with a 300 mile range and 3- 5 minute refuel will be introduced. Who knows if the infrastructure to support hydrogen engines will be put in place? I do not.

As for automated cars, "guardian angel" systems that allow a driver to drive, but warn and take over to avoid accidents will begin appearing en mass around 2020 and totally automated cars, with operators choice of self driving or not, will be introduced for general public consumption around 2025.

Guardian angel systems for motorcycles are beyond my imagination and I would enjoy hearing from anyone in the industry who knows anything about the development of automated motorcycles. Perhaps 3 wheel motorcycles will be automated???

Somehow I foresee a positive correlation between alternative engines and automation. I am not sure why, but as the people begin to trust alternative engines, MHO they will also begin to trust automated vehicles. The gas engine represents the old established culture just as driving might represent another old established culture.

I remember in 1964, after graduating high school in Ankara, Turkey I entered a university in the States...and was completely lost when my peers began speaking about the number of barrels their carburetors had and went on and on about the silver discs called hub caps or wheel covers on their cars. It was all insane to me - What a waste of time....I sincerely believed the social conversations were being carried out in some code I did not understand and more important issues were really being discussed.... how could grown men - well almost grown men - spend so many hours discussing carburetors, and when that was settled begin all over again on the merits of wheel covers.

That was the old established culture I speak of. In Turkey we did not drive and had a chauffeur - provided for my Father, needless to say I had not yet learned how to drive so was not of the old established culture, and I saw cars as means of transportation only.

My interest in motorcycles began when I began to need personal freedom and that having a motorcycle was much like owning a horse in another old established culture.

Comments welcome.
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