Reported new daily Covid cases in the UK were around 120,000 today and it is suggested that 1.4 million people in the UK currently have Covid. Yet despite the high numbers, the overall death rate has remained at the 112 persons per day level of October 2021 when the infection rate was less than one-third that of today.
Even the most blinkered statistician can't ignore the disparity and after several weeks of denying the validity of the reports coming out of South Africa regarding the reduced dangers associated with the Omicron variant, the UK Health Security Agency has issued an analysis that states Omicron patients are up to 70% less likely to need hospital care compared with previous variants.
Other reports point out that whilst antibody levels are low with those whose vaccinations were several months ago (lowering protection against infection), B Cell and T Cell response remains good (which helps prevent serious illness). The Omicron variant is better at infecting the upper respiratory tract but has a less powerful effect on the lungs—as some will realise, it's far better to have bronchitis than pneumonia.
Only a proportion of PCR tests are analysed for Omicron (90,906) but using SGTF S-gene dropout as an indicator suggests 193,783 cases—still a wild understatement. But of these 193,783 cases, only 300 have been admitted to hospital and 24 have since died. According to medical staff, the vast, vast majority of admitted patients are unvaccinated.
I've been studying the London statistics and it seems new daily cases are close to peaking. The rolling average deaths in London for the last eleven days have been 12 per day which is less than the rate in early November when cases were one-fifth those of today. Just under 2,100 patients are in London hospitals, mostly unvaccinated, compared with 7,900 at last January's peak.
Elsewhere in the UK cases are still increasing and one of the fears is that a milder virus could still put pressure on hospitals because it spreads so fast. The UKHSA says its early findings are "encouraging" but the variant could still lead to large numbers of people in hospital. The Agency also says there is also uncertainty about what will happen when Omicron reaches older age groups because most of those catching it and going into hospital so far have been under the age of 40.
So it's way too early to give Boris a pat of the back for not imposing a lockdown (hell will freeze over first for many people
), and in any case this virus has a habit of twisting around and coming up with new surprises. Where does this leave restrictions? The devolved administrations of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have each introduced more restrictions than England's eight regions (which weirdly are all larger than any of the devolved 'nations').
Staff shortages have reached 30% in some London hospitals and if cases peak and then start to fallback in the next two weeks the NHS will be saved from meltdown, but the UK population may not have garnered sufficient natural community immunity (polite expression for herd immunity) that will protect against Pi, Rho or Sigma—whatever the next 'variant of interest' is called.
Will this ever end?
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