I think your start date is probably too late in the season.
We hit snow mid August trying to come into Lake Zorkul from the east in Southern Tajikistan. The road turned muddy and very slippery- impassable for at least a few days.
Later, at the end of August, we rode over Kyzlart Pass (4280 m., between Sary Tash and Osh) in another heavy wet snowstorm. There was 15-20 cm of snow, but the road was warm enough so that other vehicle tracks were mostly wet and we got over.
My guess is that by mid October your chances for riding through there would not be too good. (I have only been there once, so my knowledge is limited.)
.................shu
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