Hi Toby,
We went that way about 7 weeks ago. We were in Tashkent, and actually had some friends there ring up the police and other local authorities to check on the border situation as we were looking to cross at either Osh or Namangan. We were told that it was currently open so the next morning with 48 hours left on our visa we filled everything we had with petrol. Even the soldiers at the checkpoints along the Farghana valley said it was open. Arriving at Namangan that evening we were told that the border was closed, had been closed all week and wasn't opening soon. With 24 hours left on our visa and little fuel left we headed back towards Tashkent some 400km away only to arrive the next morning at the Kazak embassy and find that the visa section is closed all day friday!
Only the help of the british embassy saved us from huge fines as we tried to get an extension, and only because the ministry in charge of borders didn't know they'd closed the border either!
Ended up exiting via Kazak and entered Kyrg about 80km west of Bishkek (i forget the name but all info is on our blog - see below)
Either way, take whatever you're told with a pinch of salt.
Good luck!
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