This is a general response to the question of whether it is safe in Mauri at the moment. At the start I've assumed that AQ-M did the hit on the Spanish. If that has been confirmed already, then I've missed it. The short answer is that for the moment I wouldn't go but the chances of being taken are low. I wouldn't go because the enjoyment factor would be a limited. I like to enjoy the desert.

What AQ-M have shown now is that they can take prisoners from tar roads near capital cities (Spanish in Mauri, Canadian diplomats near Niamey, Niger) and from the street in front of hotels. They are confident, bold and appear to plan well. If you're in their sights, there is not much you can do to escape. Driving in a convoy won't necessarily help. Driving during the day won't necessarily help. On the other hand, if they haven't made a plan to kidnap you or someone passing through at that time, your chances of free passage are excellent. The Spanish convoy was hugely conspicuos. It would take one lad with a phone to report the passing of the convoy at km X in order to make the hit 10km down the road. Easily done. And once AQ-M and hostages are all in the same car, there is not much that can be done.

There was a case a few years ago of German tourists in Mali who bumped into AQ-M in the desert. The Germans were held overnight and then released the next day so that they could not raise the alarm overnight. In this case it seems AQ-M had not planned to take anyone. They were either not set up to do so and/or their command structure is hierarchical and the troops can't make spontaneous and opportunistic moves. If true, that makes the chances of not being taken very, very much higher. Its only if you're in their sights at the time.

Am I right in thinking AQ-M has 4 people now (3 Spanish + one French)? The last session involved slightly more (2 Canadian + Edwin Dyer + another German?+ the Austrians). I think this is a spread betting technique. First it is a manageable number (I doubt they'd go for 32 again) to maintain in the desert and second, there are economies of scale. You can line them all up at once to phone families to argue for ransom. Doing one or two at a time would not be as efficient. So what does this mean? To me, near the start of the winter season, it suggests we could see more action. Perhaps 2 more. But probably not in Mauri.

If caught, its essentially a long, long wait and a lot of uncertainty. At the moment there is not much anyone can do, even if one's position is known.
It is plausible that the premature announcement that the Spanish had been found was simply that. The Mauri army knew where they were but could do nothing besides allow AQ-M free passage (that in order to keep the prisoners alive). That, I understand, is the basis for the passage of the Austrians who were taken from Tunisia to N Mali via Libya/Algeria. Its the same off Somalia. A destroyer can stand-off from a 30 foot yacht filled with pirates + hostages and do absolutely nothing.

There are some interesting, open questions. Why no kidnappings in Algeria or Libya? Is Gadaffi an important link for the ransom payments and, in response, have AQ-M made a deal to stay clear? In Algeria, perhaps it is the guides, who sign their live's and the lives of of their families away to look after their clients. But why exactly do AQ-M care about the guide and the guide's family? I don't understand that part.

I would say the risk of being kidnapped on the NDB-NKT road is near nil. And this haven't changed last week, other than it may be even safer now than before.
I'll be passing through in January and not worried. There's a lot of other things that can go wrong. I think I'll leave the Mauri desert to be explored another year.

The news that the hostages were released seems to have come from a Moroccan source trying to put the blame on Polisario. It was quickly corrected.

I also thought about the numbers. That is why I wrote that their quota may not yet be filled, and there may be more action in the coming month or two.
Six to eight would be a reasonable number of hostages. Having 32 wouldn't yield much more money and the logistics would be a challenge.
If there hasn't been any kidnappings in Libya I would think it is because nobody wants to mess with Qadaffi. And in Algeria, there are too many gendarmes. Niger and Mali is much easier. Tunisia was the surprise. And now Mauri, meaning there isn't a safe place anywhere.

Boy I'd hate to be kidnapped. Not afraid of death, but the boredom of spending months with those fanatics in the wild would surely be a fate even worse. I would flat out refuse to go anyhwhere.

It was said last night on one of the Moroccan TV channels (sorry for the lack of precision but I have not seen it myself; the info. was relayed to me later on) that the Moroccan-Mauritanian border has been closed. Rumours go that it is also no longer possible to cross the Mauritano-Malian border at Nioro.

We are cycling and not so keen on crossing the Western Sahara, only to be told at the border that the frontier is closed, but we no longer want to stay on the Moroccan coast with other travellers and wonder what's going on either, so we will just carry on as normal and hope for smore reliable news as we get closer. We could not find anyone on their way back from Mauritania to talk to but will definitely post something here as soon as we get any confirmation on the border situation.

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[I moved Alg comments to Algerian doubts - this one is specifically about Mori travel info since Nov 29]

Ch

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Morocco Overland 4 (2025) • Trans Morocco Trail