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14 Jun 2010
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They had lots of rain in September iirc, flood devastated Agadez.
Rain makes desert people lighten up, even AQ fighters then.
Richard, AQMI are not the insurgents defending their homeland, the touaregs are.
If MBM and the others are attacked, they will defend their business interests more than the land.
None of the guys on the video look touareg to me.
I just wrote to Bahanga suggesting he makes a move on Aqmi. We'll see what comes out of it 
I don't think the military base at Iherir is a secret? What goes on behind the walls may be.
Last edited by priffe; 14 Jun 2010 at 20:35.
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14 Jun 2010
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The raindays from 2009.....
It looks like July 18th was the big one.
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14 Jun 2010
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and the rest from 2009....
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14 Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by priffe
If MBM and the others are attacked, they will defend their business interests more than the land.
None of the guys on the video look touareg to me.
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We might be talking past each other a bit here.
As for making a stand: where else does this gang have to go to? Seems to me they will fight for the patch. Their business is where they are, so although it might not be their land historically, there are not so many places they can operate from, notwithstanding the size of the Sahara. NE Mali is pretty much perfect for them. The Air is not a bad second.
Sure, the guys are not Touaregs. But they have married locally and recruited locally, so I read.
Suppose AQIM were set up in a base in the middle of the Sahara where there was no other population. Under these conditions a raid on them would be more straightforward. But from what I understand, they hang out fairly close to Touaregs (recall the Austrains escaped and managed to come across some locals - who refused to help and turned them in). A crucial task of any counter insurgency raid is therefore to differentiate who is whom. In the heat of an attack this is more or less impossible. Any raid that goes in and takes out the local population by mistake is only making things harder on themselves next time. AQIM will know all this. So the longer AQIM are there, and the more embedded they become, the harder it will be to dislodge them.
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14 Jun 2010
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Although it might help, I must say the explanation - we cant take them out because they've become too integrated - does not sound adequate to me. Since when do Mali military care about Iforhas Tuareg any more than Niger govt cares about Aïr Tuareg? Certainly NE Mali is an ideal location and they have few other places to go.
IMO it's come to be a lucrative business arrangement involving all parties - that's why the situation endures. And your Op Flintlock is just window dressing, possibly to justify US Africom. Any news of the new command centre in Tam?
As for a distinctive Tuareg look, there isn't one in my experience - it's as often cultural as ethnic; the smiley guy who points a gun at the camera looked a lot like a Tuareg tour op I know.
It's as likely young Tuareg men are drawn to AQIM as any others from Maghreb or Sahel. With the collapse in tourism and hostile southern govts, they dont have that many choices.
Ch
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15 Jun 2010
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Flood that destroyed Agadez was in early September. I had email telling excitedly how the desert was green even as their adobe walls came a-tumbling down. http://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hub...ez-niger-45094
but the pics could be taken anytime June-September I reckon.
Some of them have been rooted in Tessalit-Kidal but they are looking to expand into Mauretania-Niger-Nigeria. Ennahar Online - Threat of an alliance between AQIM and "Taliban" of Nigeria
Wherever government is weak and they can recruit some support by their ideology.
The guys in the video speak Arabic dialects suggesting they come from Morocco, Algeria, Mauretania and Tunisia.
I don't think many touaregs or other Saharians/Sahelians are tempted to join the forces. But they are tempted by the drug and kidnapping money. They also believe they have a traditional right to a share if it takes place on their territory.
As for touareg looks, I agree they really can look a Frenchman to an Arab to a black African and anything in between.Still the guys in the video look arabic to me.
And they are estimated to be some four hundred strong. With a handful of leaders. What if - what if a few of the leaders were targeted and taken out? Then what?
And the surprising gathering we see in the video would have been a good time to attack, no?
Last edited by priffe; 15 Jun 2010 at 04:32.
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15 Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Scott
Although it might help, I must say the explanation - we cant take them out because they've become too integrated - does not sound adequate to me. Ch
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I agree. Then I don't think it is being floated as an explanation by the Malian govt or any other forces in the region. The real reason nothing has happened is bound up in widespread inefficiencies and poor levels of capability in the region.
It sometimes feels like the community here is more bothered by the AQIM presence in the Sahara than anyone else. The reason I raised the point about local assimilation here was that when who-evers forces finally come round to having a go at AQIM, it will have become harder to dislodge AQIM as a result of their assimilation and familiarity with their surrounds. Its been 7 years now that they are in NE Mali.
In that sense my comment was more a prediction of how hard it will be than an explanation of why nothing seems to have happened. One tactic on the part of AQIM under the conditions of a known raid would simply be to bury everything and bomb-shell off into the local community that they seem now to be mates with- and lie low there. Who does the raiding party shoot then? Everyone in the hills of NE Mali? The tactic wont work for the MBM & co, but these guys will already have found themselves a quiet spot that is well out of reach.
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16 Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Washington
It sometimes feels like the community here is more bothered by the AQIM presence in the Sahara than anyone else.
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It may seem so, but I believe local support for Aqmi is minimal, and they would be ousted from the desert in short order if they weren't protected by those who gain from their activities. They have bought their support. From locals, from Bamako and Niamey and likely also from north of the border.
I also believe that touaregs not least in Kidal region are those most anxious to throw them out. If it appears otherwise it is because the touaregs have other and even bigger gripes with both Bamako/Niamey and the French. But most people have lost and not gained from the Aqmi presence.
The Aqmi guys are not only propagators of kidnapping but also victims of their own game. It appears one Mauretanian was not the cat but the mouse when he was kidnapped north of Timbouctoo and turned in to the authorities. The cat in this case was an arab narcotrafficante who was supposedly paid 322M CFA by the Mauri/Alg for trying to round up islamists. Then he was in his turn the mouse after Aqmi responded by kidnapping him in Inhalid in broad daylight(anyone familiar with this place that seems to be a center for trafficking of vehicles and humans?).
And he is now said to have confessed to his "dirty deeds" on video on islamist sites.
This what I hear from the Kidal grapevine.
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16 Jun 2010
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kidnapping him in Inhalid ... anyone familiar with this place that seems to be a center for trafficking of vehicles and humans?
A story from 2004 here, though hard to pin down a location:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/25/ne...ed3_.html?_r=1
I wonder if that's the same as Ikhalil, just inside Mali a few miles south of Bordj Moktar. (Zoom right in and you see it).
In 2006 we stayed there on two occasions. What's left of my Hilux is still rotting at Ikhalil. On those occasions it looked like a semi-abandoned smuggling trading post, a series of walled compounds that seemed to have recently been left to its own devices by Malian officials. Stuff passes out blatantly from Bordj. Back then we had the impression it was tolerated contraband-lite; cigs, fuel, sugar, etc, bound for Timbuktu and occasionally raided by the Algies. Maybe not.
They have bought their support. From locals, from Bamako and Niamey and likely also from north of the border.
And in case we forget, that is why travel in the Sahara has become dodgy for the likes of us. Otherwise it would just be regional organised crime, easily avoided by 'civilians'.
Ch
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16 Jun 2010
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Hmmm...seems Ikhalil/Halid/Inhalid is the same place.
Going from there to Tessalit and onwards unharmed seem a real challenge these days-
I also just realized we came within miles of the purported AQ camp when we drove Timiaouine-Kidal last year
(good thing we didn't know)
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