Totally disagree priffe. Ok so you dont have to be specially trained to point a gun at someone and lead them away, but you have to have balls. Planting explosives requires technical competance. The last think you want to do is underestimate an enemy combatant when he/she is prepared to die for their cause. To be opportunistic requires adaptability, and the first thing they teach you as a combat soldier is to adapt to your enemy.

So they're pretty good at what they do.

Thanks Chris for establishing a cooler climate (thread) where we can openly discuss our intuitions and share our experiences regarding tactics, logistics and the who responsible for ongoing crimes in the Sahara region.

Granted, my "on the road" African experience is limited to 3 weeks travel in Morocco, but I have 17 years in Mexico, Central and South America where, kidnapping is also problem, even for a few motorcycle adventurists.

I have all my chips on the table betting that the tactics employed regarding the 3 Spanish "volunteers who went missing off Maui's main road, were well planned, perhaps with local/inside assistance as opposed to an opportunistic strike. Here is why.

1. According to international press releases, those who went missing were described as more than "cooperantes" Spanish term used to describe the volunteers who help distribute relief via convoy etc. Who they are and who/what they represent is readily available in past press releases.

2. Apparently, arguably, the 3 "highest rank" "cooperantes" were trailing the convoy, a logic defying order of march.

Therefore, I also bet the tactics included the targeting of these specific people, and logistics that included a hand off/selling of the hostages to a third party.

Logistically, I still hold with the idea of some earthen, underground, cave, mine etc is being/was utilized. I agree with those who forward the idea of the "human shield" tactic as a strong possibility, but also hold that the plan was not to transport, via land, to Mali, but by much swifter transport to another location in Mauritania and then out of the West African region.

Eat, Drink and Be Careful xfiltrate

EDIT: Chris, I rode out 150 K (very wet) to welcome my friend Jeff Condon, and the Globebusters Saturday 05dec, they have arrived safely Buenos Aires. Kev and Julia were pleased with the tour.

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xfiltrate, you have to put meat on those bones.
Why a boat?
Why a cave?
While clearly a possibility, why a third party?
They snatched the last car, so how could they have targeted individuals?

Been trying to read up on the subject. Aqim desert branch doesn't seem hard to understand. Motivate recruits on religious grounds. Generate cash to buy weapons and power. Have close connection to drug smuggling and other criminal activities.
Talk about reviving al-Andalus. Then kidnap spaniards. Take them straight to the safe areas. Settle down, let a few weeks go by, then make claims for release of Al Qaeda prisoners in spanish jails. When that doesn't work, settle for huge ransom.
As noone has claimed responsibility yet, it leaves room for politically motivated accusations, such as Morocco suggesting Polisario involvement, or Algerian sources pointing at Morocco.
I could of course be dead wrong, but isn't this what we're seeing now?

So let us speculate on what is going on.

As for Algeria, I only get more confused the more I read, esp. from sites like this Algeria-Watch: Information on the Human Rights Situation in Algeria
They use what someone called "reverse science" - you start out with a hypothesis. Find all the evidence that can be made to seen as supporting your theory and disregard the rest. Arrange the chosen facts using lots of references and build your own logic. Present it as the unquestionable truth. Mr Keenan is a good example of this kind of writing.
One of the more interesting theories was that the Algerian situation can be understood as a power struggle between Bouteflika/parts of the army on one side, and the DRS (Secret Service) on the other. That may explain some of the bewildering developments in Algeria over the last decade or so. But how could we know anything about this? Until someone on the inside decides to tell the story.

Libya - I am thinking that general Qadaffy has monopolised the right to practice terrorism in his country, just as he has monopilised everything else. Thus no kidnappings or even attempts.

Two kidnap attempts in Niger botched so far this fall (Arlit and Tahoua, scant reporting on these incidents - no journalists allowed to work in Niger perhaps?). So Aqim may not be as good at their job as some think they are. edit - at least the first kidnapping may have been done by others than aqim
In Niger, they had this unit Niger Rapid Intervention Company - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia that were trained by the Americans.
They reportedly defected wholesale to become part of the rebellion in 2007.

Why haven't the Americans set up a similar unit in Mali? Or have they? It is exactly what they need in northeastern Mali.
Would Bamako allow such a unit, consisting of touaregs expertly trained, equipped and motivated? Here's an American training Mali soldiers in 2008

I am thinking such a unit could do away with Aqim in one short season, especially with a little air support. They should preferrably wait until kidnapping season's over and all hostages released. And the desert turned to mud.
Wouldn't this mean saving huge money in the long run? Rather than paying 10 M€ ransoms every year.
The MBMs of the desert could then restrain themselves to other lines of work.
But Bamako perhaps have had it with touareg soldiers: "Public and government in Mali appeared shocked by the level of violence in the north of Kidal, Ménaka and the Sahel region, as well as by the effectiveness of the rebel force, which the government has said is led by Ibrahim Bahanga, a Malian Armed Forces officer who had deserted early in the summer of 2007."
Tuareg Rebellion (2007–present) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

So place your bets - where will the Aqim strike next?
And feel free to disagree.

All nicely summed up priffe. Or at least that's the way I see it too.

Would Bamako allow such a unit, consisting of touaregs expertly trained, equipped and motivated?

I would have thought not a chance, even if they're probably the guys who could do it. How hard can it be in north Mali (as I have said many times before here). If the Moris had radars protecting fennecs several years ago, surely now the tech is up to finding, tracking and liquidating AQIM in open desert.

The Americans have been spending and 'training' in the Sahel since 2004, changing the name of the Initiative or Operation from time to time. What good has come of it? Not much in Niger from what you say and there was a theory that these ops were some ploy by Germany-based US 'Africa/Middle East Command' or something to help justify their budget or existence - but maybe that was a Keenanism that got stuck to my shoe at some point).

But after the Mali Tuareg have finished off AQIM they'll have more gear and know-how to carry on fighting for the concessions they want - or so Bamako might fear. And possibly some in the Mali army/state are talking a cut from or involved with AQIM smuggling ops (as exposed just after 2003). These southern kickbacks may all be lost once Tuaregs move in on them.

So Mali leaves it as it is, no one of any consequence gets harmed up in the empty desert apart from occasional unlucky foreign hostage, AQ aren't banging at the walls of Bamako any time soon and meantime a few get a nice new VX to go with the villa.

Ch

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Priffe, your Argentine "asado" reference was not lost here. But the "meat" on the bones of my analysis will come through the filter of official press releases that are like an "asado al punto" tender but without blood.

You, yourself have helped to flesh out my armchair analysis.

1. My "much swifter transport to another location in Mauritania" included but was not limited to "boats," as this is a general speculation forum my reasoning was based on this article.

Latin American drug cartels find home in West Africa - CNN.com Latin American drug cartels find home in West Africa - CNN.com

And the following data:

Your own Aqim desert branch description alleged "close connection to drug smuggling.

Latin American drug smugglers have "boats," aircraft and quickly become known, feared, and integrated into areas en route to market.

The province of Puerto Limón, Costa Rica, for example, has been infiltrated by the Colombians, to the extent that the cartel has voice in the Costa Rican legislature and in another voice instructs the "authorities" to leave them alone in Puerto Limón or there will be violence in the capital San Jose.

These "tactics" are also also evident in other Central American Republics since US/Mexican operations have pressured the cartels to create more southern routes to the US market.

Horrific murders as well as the kidnapping of high value targets for prisoner exchange as ransom, is a common along all of the cartels drug routes.

Why would the Latin American cartels abandon tactics that have worked well in Latin America and create new tactics for the West African route to the EU market?

2. I am a practicing "remote viewer" google: Ingo Swan, Hal Puthoff, Stanford University's government funded research project "remote viewing, Army/CIA remote viewing programs or Maj. Ed Dames if you are unfamiliar with remote viewing. Much of what is known about remote viewing is still classified.

I am also well read in scientology as are the founders of the official remote viewing programs utilized during the cold war.

Before it was international news that one of the missing was CEO of a large company that tunnels through mountains, under cities (subways) etc I posted on another thread about a potential underground location, in retrospect I may have been picking up on the credentials of this particular hostage. A person with an interesting vocation that might have attracted the interest of the cartels.

The cartels have little trouble buying information and services from local inhabitants along their routes to market, they have unlimited resources compared to the resources available to nations struggling to combat them.

A second remote viewing session resulted again in some underground dwelling as a place the hostages were taken. The Latin American cartels have constructed and utilized underground passageways to transport their product. Why would this be different in West Africa?

3. You have already concluded the identity of my referenced third party.

Eat, Drink and Be Careful xfiltrate

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