Regardless of our views on the military campaign and withdrawal from Afghanistan, the reality is the Taliban are back and will rule the country as they see fit. As travellers, how is this likely to affect us? Allegedly, strict Sharia law reduces banditry, and one would hope that now the Taliban have control over their country there would be less inclination to engage in acts of terrorism towards tourists.

Am I being over hopeful? It would be interesting to hear the views of those with some experience and depth of knowledge of the region. I plan to ride the Pamir Highway next year and I'd like to do it with open eyes. Who knows, now they are not fighting a guerrilla war might the whole country open up to visitors? OK, maybe not by next year...

It's far too early to say. Unfortunately, the occupying forces never had the diplomatic skills to engage a more lenient cadre of the Taliban (a term applied imprecisely to a variety of insurgents). They had to be painted as 'bad guys', with the America-led forces and weak Kabul government the 'good guys' for the media and morons back home. So the Taliban have been kept as 'bad guys' and have attracted a lot of very undesirable elements, jihadists from across the region (Syria, Iraq, Chechnya etc) who obviously have absolutely no interest in a stable, peaceful Afghanistan. Even if the Taliban leadership, who currently seem to be exercising restraint and have a nod of approval from countries such as Russia, China, Turkey, wanted to rid Afghanistan of such people, it would be a huge task.

There are some good signs though, the Taliban entered Kabul with seemingly little fighting, very different from the early to mid 1990s when (after another power vacuum triggered by the Soviet withdrawal and ending of American support of the Mujaheddin) the city was virtually destroyed by civil war. Seeing the rapid advance of the Taliban, it's very obvious that they enjoy widespread popular support. Especially surprising was how easily they took the north, traditionally bitter enemies of the Taliban. The Northern Alliance seems to have pretty much evaporated.

On the flip side though, this is a very complex geopolitical problem; although the Americans have made their characteristic mess of the country, it can't be blamed on them entirely; The Taliban receive a lot of support from Pakistan, who want to keep Afghanistan in their sphere of influence, and keep Indian influence out. Afghanistan's largest neighbour, China, is also keen to open the country up to Chinese infrastructure (trade routes) and investment.

The Wakhan area of Badakhshan, the part of Afghanistan you would be looking at from Tajikistan, was traditionally isolated from the civil war and Taliban control, so to see that taken by the Taliban is big news. They now hold more of the country than they ever have done. Another worry is Bamiyan, populated by Shia Hazaras. In the 1990s the Taliban committed various atrocities against them and it remains to be seen whether they will fall back into this. As far as I can tell, Bamiyan is about the last part of the country not under Taliban control, though as they are isolated high in the mountains surrounded by Taliban territory, I doubt they can hold out for long. My heart goes out to them.

Back before Bush steamed into Afghanistan, the Taliban brought a good measure of peace to the war-torn country as a whole (though they did not control the entire area). Of course, they came against a background of bitter civil war and committed numerous atrocities, as well as introducing a very hardline interpretation of Sharia law. But peace is in my opinion is the most basic expectation from a government. Westerners just cannot see that Afghanistan is a deeply traditional country and can't get past the medieval take on things like women's rights. As Churchill said, 'a bad peace is better than a good war'. It was possible to visit the country, though tourists weren't exactly flocking in.

So I think it could go either way; the Taliban run a fairly peaceful state with a degree of law and order through very hardline Islamic values that make Western liberals whine. If you are willing to follow these, a visit could be quite safe. The Afghan people are proud, chivalrous and deeply hospitable and no government will change this.

It could also go rather badly, with the 'Taliban' splitting into factions, with certain areas clear no-go zones due to the presence of some very unpleasant ISIS types who have no aim in life other than fighting.

Afghanistan has always been rather lawless, even in the heyday of the 1970s when long-haired, stoned Hippies crossed Afghanistan by bus and car ('driving ordinary Afghans into the hands of the Marxists' according to Chatwin). It will always be a destination for the adventurous, but it is a truly wonderful country to visit. Almost certainly, next year will too soon to make a call on this, unless you want to be the one testing the waters. Let's see if you can even make it to Tajikistan though.

Just for information, I drove across Afghanistan from Pakistan to Iran in about 2 months in 2009 / 10 and it was the most memorable journey I have made. I've tried to stay abreast of what is happening there, kept in touch with friends I made there (sadly all emigrated now) and also have a friend who until right now has been running regular package tours there. I long to go back and explore the parts which were too unsafe on my last visit; to travel the southern road through Zaranj, Lashkar Gah, Kandahar and Ghazni, and more of the central highlands. I'm patiently waiting.

EO

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EurasiaOverland a memoir of one quarter of a million kilometres by road through all of the Former USSR, Western and Southern Asia.

Thanks EO, a nice summary and I suspect very accurate. In particular the big unknown will be how much control the (possibly more restrained) centre can exert over the outlying young hotheads. For sure, the country is likely to be too "hot" to visit for a while yet, and we'll definitely need to keep a close eye on what happens in neighbouring states. I do hope TJ isn't adversely affected - I've put this trip off for 2 years now, the Pamir is a big part of it and I'm not getting any younger.

Taliban now seem to be in control of Bamiyan province. Only the Panjshir Valley remains out of their control, the home of Ahmed Shah Massoud and now seat of the remains of the Northern Alliance and the old vice president who claims a Taiwan style 'Islamic Republic of Afghanistan' in that valley, with the rest of the country under the Taliban. Let's see if that flares up into something major. Taliban have issued an amnesty and claim they will respect women's rights and not make Afghanistan a base from which other countries are attacked.

They are certainly making all the right noises.

For the rest of your trip, I hope you can make it. I've not been to Afghan Badakhshan (Wakhan corridor) but there is a lot to see in Tajikistan and the rest of Central Asia. But with Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan currently closed, there would be no way to get there as things stand now (except flying). Hopefully thing improve next year...

EO

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EurasiaOverland a memoir of one quarter of a million kilometres by road through all of the Former USSR, Western and Southern Asia.

EO,
your are very well informed about the situation and I fully respect and share your view on Afghanistan.

But let´s be honest with a clear future view:
Due to their strong reference to the pashtums code of priviledge and right system and as well due to the sharia law it will never happen that Taliban will respect women`s rights!

Unthinkable in the way of our western thinking but also never ever in the way like other "liberal islamic countries" do.

If Afghanistan will convert in future into a base from where Talibans will spread attacks (again) to non and to islamic(!) countries will only be depend on how strong and cash-rich western politics will be. And as we saw in the past weeks the game of pressing advantages was opened by the talibans in conferences with western countries.

In my eyes it`s an absolute inhuman shame what is actually happening there and how the world reacts to this. But nobody can stem fast the tide which started decades and centurys before. I allways thought that Churchill was right when he stated that a bad peace is better than a good war. But in the moment I am still asking myself where will be difference for the Afganis when a Taliban goverment will show that a bad peace and a good war will be the same.

I was never really interested to visit Afghanistan but especially Pakistan is still on my list. Talibans recruited in the past a lot of fighters from pakistani pashtums who are a minority in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. It will get existing to see what kind influence in view of safety, economics and attacks in Pakistan will be driven in the future from pakistani pashtums.

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Thanks for the reply Rapax.

The question is whose view of women's rights? It won't be (I imagine) yours or mine, but is that relevant? Afghanistan is dominated by Pashtuns (not pashtums) who have a very traditional tribal coda that gels well with fundamentalist Islam. Strict Sharia law (or even mild Sharia law, which is the law where I live) is not equitable to women. Afghanistan is never going to be a great place to live if you are a woman who wants equal rights with a man. But this Western mentality of cultural superiority is partly what is behind these kind of occupations - let the Americans come and save the people from their repression - they want Macdonalds and Nascar racing right?? Because who wouldn't?? Do you think Afghans are getting ready to send their army over to the West to solve our societal ills? The Western media pick a few of the small, urban middle class elite to justify the occupation while ordinary Afghans feel violated and humiliated at having foreign invaders in their country, on their streets, pointing guns at them - and they need only look to Iraq to see what these invaders are capable of doing. My blood ran cold in the streets of Jalalabad when the US Army came through in armoured vehicles.

I think it remains to be seen if the withdrawal of the occupying powers turns into a tragedy. Unfortunately I think there is a significant chance that it will, but we have not seen that yet. The issue in my opinion is not the Taliban we are seeing in news conferences, but the jihadists and extremists who are mixed among them.

FYI a person from Afghanistan in English (which I appreciate may not be your first language) is an Afghan. The Afghani is their currency.

Taliban attacks again? Who did the Taliban attack outside Afghanistan? The Pakistan - Afghanistan border is highly porous and I don't think anyone really knows who is Afghan and who is Pakistani Taliban, but I don't think the Afghan Taliban have been seriously implicated in attacks in Pakistan. In fact it's more the opposite; Pakistan has a murky but undeniable hand in arming the Afghan Taliban. If you think that the Taliban had much to do with the World Trade Centre attacks in 2001, that's way off. The Taliban harboured Al Qaeda (though I doubt that they were aware of plans to execute the hijacking and attack) and refused to hand over bin Laden to the Americans (who months earlier had paid the Taliban millions as a sweetener for a pipeline deal across Afghanistan...) and so in they went.

Great that Pakistan is on your list. I totally fell in love with the country and even lived there for a short time. Still my very favourite place to travel with so much to see, and much easier logistically to travel in (in the past) than Afghanistan. Sadly, I think Pakistan can have a very negative influence on how events unfold in the near future in Afghanistan.

EO

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EurasiaOverland a memoir of one quarter of a million kilometres by road through all of the Former USSR, Western and Southern Asia.

The worry to me would be that a spat would erupt between the Taliban and a Western power or its ally, and dependant upon your nationality, you may end up a pawn arrested for some ‘crime’.

Poor Afghanistan.


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At the moment Taliban show and behave extremly "too" friendly to all western goverments. The country is colapsing every day more and more. It`s a big difference to fight in a war than to gover a country and to keep infrastructure und a financial system healthy alive.

Afghanistan is fully bankrupt and its only a question of time when it will break down completly. Winter is coming and most of the food must be imported as ever. Without currency import business isn`t possible. People are standing hours and hours in a queue in the hope to get a small amount of the weekly maximum of possible 200$ from the atm.

Western goverments decisions are right now only humanitarian made and not politically motivated. At that moment when Taliban think that the issue with finance looks solved for them, they will forget friendlyness and show their real faces to the world.

Its a diabolical game what taliban are playing right now with the western goverments and media.

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A long read, but perhaps the best piece of journalism I have read on the occupation and the lead-up to current events.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...r-afghan-women

EO

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EurasiaOverland a memoir of one quarter of a million kilometres by road through all of the Former USSR, Western and Southern Asia.