Quote:
Originally Posted by Rapax
It`s imaginable that a case rate can continue to expand by a factor of ten as well as it is imaginable that it can continue to expand by a factor of 100.
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Sorry, but this is not the way mathematics work. Start with a hundred cases. Sustained expansion by a factor of ten exceeds the population of the entire world in 8 days. In 9 days it exceeds the population of the world by a factor of ten. No matter how many repeated or "multiple" infections you imagine, this is not possible. If you doubt this, just keep going: ten days, or eleven.
Theoretical expansion of this sort works in a very limited way--the first couple of days, the first week. After a certain point it become impossible to sustain, no matter what sort of system you're describing. This includes pandemics, multi-level marketing schemes, gifting circles, you name it.
The same applies when you apply lesser expansions--say, a daily doubling of cases--but more slowly. I'm too lazy to figure it out precisely, but if you start with, say, 64 cases it only takes a bit more than a month before you've again exceeded the population of the world. Keep going and...well, you get the picture.
Mark
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