Are we in overlanding purgatory?

[jfman]

I have started to seriously talk/think about plans for the next big trip.

Part of me thinks it's pointless to plan right now because we don't know what the travel limitations will be in the near and distant future.

Part of me thinks it's going to go back 100% like it was in a few dozen months.(give or take)

Somewhere between these two statements lies the future.

What are your thoughts on this time period and what it means to the motorcycle travel and overlanding community?

Are the good days behind us?

Are the businesses that operate in the community going to be there on the other side?

Will the common overlanding paths/trails be left unbroken?

Are some new restrictions to be permanent or semi permanent as 2nd and 3rd world countries will be the last ones to defeat the virus?

On a more positive spin; Is the pent up demand going to make the type of travel we enjoy surge on the other side?

What are your thoughts?

[mark manley]

I am not expecting to go very far before 2022, but hope to see some more of the UK in 2021.

[Grant Johnson]

There are a LOT of people eager to get out and go, BUT it will be 2022 at least before it's "back to the way it was", and 2023 or even 4 wouldn't surprise me. I DO think it will explode - but maybe more a controlled burn like a combustion chamber actually does

In the meantime, we can do local trips, see our own countries, go to the places that the tourists see - and we tend to ignore but shouldn't - and go as far as we safely can. (Susan and I have lived in several countries - and missed all the major tourist spots to our chagrin because we ran out of time at the end!)

We can plan and prepare so when we feel it's safe to go on the particular route we're interested, we can just go.
Remember that different areas / routes will open up at different rates. There may even be a closed country we have to fly over, but that's been the case before, so will just have to be included in the planning.

[Surfy]

Originally Posted by Grant Johnson

There are a LOT of people eager to get out and go, BUT it will be 2022 at least before it's "back to the way it was", and 2023 or even 4 wouldn't surprise me.

I guess that is what we will get, for completely unrestricted travellling 2023-2024

So planning an RTW Trip will be a mess, as long as you are not willing to airfright (easier as biker), to avoid a stop on land borders or to fly over an country.

So multi-border stuff like a Panamaricana, the Silkroad or Transafrica will not work in the near future. That will be one of those things who are possible after everything else was possible...

But dont panic - you can do other stuff. Flying in a Country, doing stuff with rentals.. I strongly suggest to do stuff, which you cant do easily with your own vehicle.. China or Myanmar with rentals vehicles and no guide - gives you a outstanding experience... Yes yes, it is not possible. Same was to read about Laos - and I had a wonderful selfdrive overlanding trip in laos at a time where every expat laos forum wrote - you cant rent a car So why dont research deeper about?

Alternatives are too around. Plan travelling with your vehicle with crossing less borders. What is about the transsibiria instead of the silkroad? Guess It will be possible sooner than the southern leg! Less Visa, less borders, less quarantaine, less PCR Tests and so on.



Or Flying to brasil, get a rental - or buy locally a car/bike - it is too a huge country and has a lot to see.

As long you "have to go by your own" vehicle, you had some more restrictions I guess.

So all who has their perfect timeframe for an atw trip now: sell too your rig/bike - and the world looks a lot more unrestricted if you are able to fly and buy/rent - also when you would starting today

Maybe it was necessary for us kilometer eaters, that we did detect againg - the way is the target, not the target itself. So this RTW thing (who never was an real rtw thing) gets a new focus.

Surfy

[Alanymarce]

Originally Posted by Surfy

But dont panic - you can do other stuff. Flying in a Country, doing stuff with rentals.. I strongly suggest to do stuff, which you cant do easily with your own vehicle.
Surfy

Yes - for example, we may have to go to Argentina (business) at the end of this year, so we'll rent a vehicle and do some exploring while there, as we've done a few times previously. There's a lot to see and do, it's 4000 km north to south, with climate from desert to tundra. Probably not practical to do much more than stay in the country though.

Thanks for the Wüstenschiff link.

[Erik_G]

Originally Posted by Alanymarce

Yes - for example, we may have to go to Argentina (business) at the end of this year, so we'll rent a vehicle and do some exploring while there, as we've done a few times previously. There's a lot to see and do, it's 4000 km north to south, with climate from desert to tundra. Probably not practical to do much more than stay in the country though.

Thanks for the Wüstenschiff link.

I would be happy if that will be possible.
Escape winter in Europe. For some months. Fly i, rent or buy/sell. Enjoy. No shipping of bikes.

Argentina one time
Colombia next year
Vietnam 3rd year
Mexico 4th year
Chile+ Peru next year
South africa
Australia....

There are more trips of that kind than I can do in my lifetime

I would love that. Is is frome more interesting than drive from A to be with the goal to tick that trip off the list (Alaska-Ushuai on the gringo trail)

[Mezo]

Originally Posted by mark manley

I am not expecting to go very far before 2022, but hope to see some more of the UK in 2021.

Agreed, who knows how the new variants will affect us anyhow? these jabs bay be ineffective in two years from now. If i was still in blighty i would explore places likes Wales or in summer (scoff) Scotland would be where i would head up.

That`s what happening here in OZ, nobody allowed in & nobody allowed out, so everyone is exploring their own back yards.

Mezo.

[Alanymarce]

Echoing some of the above.

Next "big trip" - we had planned to go to South Asia this year, that's not going to happen. We think there's a reasonable chance of being able to do a 3-6 month trip in Canada this year, with all of the quarantine periods etc.

Meanwhile - during the periods in which we are able to travel locally (below "red alert" level) we've been able to make several excellent trips to parts of the country in which we live which are new to us. 2-5 days on average. We plan one of these once a month on average until we can make the Canada trip.

We hope things will not "return to normal" but will improve in terms of social and environmental responsibility and sustainability.

[backofbeyond]

Certainly seems to be plenty of bike travel still going over in the HU Facebook pages ...

Meanwhile, here at BoB Towers we've now just abandoned our two big bike travel trips for the second year in a row. They were the ones that needed planning, shipping, flights etc so stuff had to be arranged months in advance. Everything is too uncertain to want to put money down with only a partial chance of getting it back if things don't improve like everyone hopes. It was a real struggle to get refunds last year and I don't want to spend out again until there's a substantial chance of things actually being able to ahead.

So this year I'm going to stick to 'spontaneous' travel - that's stuff where I can go / not go / make it up as I go along/ at short notice etc. Not necessarily local but where I don't have to plug too deeply into the travel 'industry'. Wherever that takes me (and I have a few ideas on the list) it almost certainly won't be anywhere 'touristy' - beaches, seaside resorts, cultural centres etc as they're all going to be swamped with a tsunami of summer lockdown release travellers.

Certainly in the UK the vaccination programme (for once) actually seems to be quite successful and is getting needles into people's arms. So (assuming it works anyway) by the summer the virus itself may not be the biggest issue. It'll be retained restrictions based on a 'just in case' fear of removing them mindset. How far other countries (European ones in particular) get with their vaccination levels (and the consequences of it) is going to be the big unknown. I'm keeping my fingers crossed in the hope it'll all improve but I'm not laying out any money either.

Next year though ...

Originally Posted by Mezo

... in summer (scoff) ...


Mezo.

All very true (sigh). I'm reminded of a quote from Gustav Flaubert, the 19thC French novelist when talking about the weather in his native Rouen:

"this damned country where one sees the sun in the sky about as often as a diamond in a pig's arse."

And that was France - what hope have we got in the UK.

[TheWarden]

There are still people out there travelling, some still on the road from before the pandemic and some on new trips started after it hit the world.

[Tomkat]

Originally Posted by mark manley

I am not expecting to go very far before 2022, but hope to see some more of the UK in 2021.

Pretty much my thoughts, in fact that was the conclusion I came to when I cancelled my Siberian plans almost exactly a year ago. Today, I'm still hopeful that the world will be 95% open in a year's time but it does depend on the success and rollout rate of the vaccines. Fingers crossed for a degree of success here, and I'm sure the desire to entice back the tourists and the income they bring will drive authorities to find ways to open up again. Some degree of restriction is likely though, and not unreasonable - vaccine passports being the most likely, whatever the outraged libertarians and conspiracy theorists think.

Bring it on, but in the meantime I think staying close to home and being patient for a little bit longer is on the cards.

[Surfy]

Originally Posted by Tomkat

Some degree of restriction is likely though, and not unreasonable - vaccine passports being the most likely, whatever the outraged libertarians and conspiracy theorists think.

The german Traveller Forum Wüstenschiff is maintaining a list of Countries and how the handle vaccination or natural virus antibodies after you had corona for travel purpose

https://www.wuestenschiff.de/phpbb/t...mp-t56218.html

We dont had to do vacination to all people. Over 25% of the population already has corona in the EU in the mix. But till now there is no "norm" how you can validate that for international travelling.

At least one thing the WHO should do - so that travelling is possible sooner..

Surfy

[Wheelie]

I think it is safe to assume that it will take a minimum of three years before we are at a place that resembles somewhat "normal" - atleast in Europe and North America. For other places in the world, assume it can take much much longer.

First of all, it will take a long time before all corners of the world is vaccinated - with every new mutation that will come about knocked down, atleast to a level where countries that seemingly have things under control will open up towards countries or regions that seemingly are out of control.

Unfortunately for most of us, many of the most exotic places that we want to go to the most, or that we simply have to pass through, will likely be the places that are last to get things in order, with few options to cirumvent them. Many of these will also likely be the first to fall victim to both local and international politicization - that's just the nature of how power hungry operators operate.

It is also safe to assume that there is a high probability that this politicization (on all ends of the table), and consequent retaliations that follow, will happen in more ways than you can think of at this time of the planning stage. On top of that, hate crime and terrorism could also come about as a direct result of sufferings and acts of tyranny where it is assumed that the likes of "your kind" is to blam. This could take forms, and in places, you are not likely to be able to predict at this stage.

It could take a very very very long time before all routes are back to what it used to be. As for businesses, not long after things open up, the "new" will replace the "old". Also, those countries that open up early will rebound fairly quick (i.e. tourism) - simply due to international supply and demand. Those that open up last may "never" truely "recover - atleast while it is still relevant to the trips we plan to undertake".

This much said - where there is will there is a solution - to every problem.
Personally I would not let this virus get in the way of planning - planning is half the yourney and half the fun - it inspires and paves ways for hopes, dreams and happiness - without it you will feel like you are stuck in house arrest with all your freedoms to roam taken away indefinately. In addition, if you plan - when opportunity knocks, and it will, you will be ready where you otherwise would be kept at home for being such a pessimist!

It might not sound like it, but I am an optimist - the world needs to move forward, and I'm confdent much will become much improved very soon - starting off with the wealthiest countries and their closest military, political and economical partners (a good place to plan your trip to start and to linger for a while). I would assume that much will be much easier allready early in 2022 for much of the world, with some things becoming harder in some places - but over all, much easier than right now.

If you plan for worst case scenarios along your routes, with several contingencies - I'm sure you would be able to make it arround allready now. I'm not sure how that would look like though - but I'm confident you could do it. Maybe you would need to swap vehicles in different countries, find other means of transport on some legs, find ways to skip sections by air or sea, find work permits that would allow you to enter countries or regions or simply pass through? I would assume that some countries would make special conscessions for transit in special contexts, etc. Also, citizens of different countries will likely be treated differently in different places, etc.

One of the things you might have to plan for though is for your trip to be a much slower one than originally planned for - giving you ample time to sort out red tape, take advantage of smaller windows of opportunities, sort of financial challenges, etc, etc. This might prove to be a good thing - so many of us travel too fast with nothing to slow us down.

I bet that in not too long, HU will florish with all sorts of tried and tested ideas to circumvent or deal with just about every obstacle - and you will probably amongst those that will come up with ideas or lend credibility to the ideas of others!

Like it was mentioned by @TheWarden eralier - there are people travelling as we sit here and discuss wether it is possible or not!

So, I say - go for it! Good luck!

[Tomkat]

Originally Posted by Surfy

The german Traveller Forum Wüstenschiff is maintaining a list of Countries and how the handle vaccination or natural virus antibodies after you had corona for travel purpose

https://www.wuestenschiff.de/phpbb/t...mp-t56218.html

We dont had to do vacination to all people. Over 25% of the population already has corona in the EU in the mix. But till now there is no "norm" how you can validate that for international travelling.

At least one thing the WHO should do - so that travelling is possible sooner..

Surfy

Thanks for that, a very useful resource and I wonder if HU would like to do something similar?

However, I think countries will have to change their attitude towards "covid recovery" being some proof of fitness to enter. Experience has shown an increasing number of cases where people have been infected twice, with as little as 5 months separating cases. It seems infection actually does not provide much long lasting immunity, especially as viruses mutate, certainly if only a mild case presented the first time. Only vaccination is proving to be a long lasting and versatile means of preventing infection (and thus carrying the virus), but I think it will take until the end of this year to find out just how effective and long lasting. I'm expecting everyone to need annual boosters, which of course takes you back to vaccination passports.

[Jay_Benson]

Originally Posted by Tomkat

Only vaccination is proving to be a long lasting and versatile means of preventing infection (and thus carrying the virus), but I think it will take until the end of this year to find out just how effective and long lasting. I'm expecting everyone to need annual boosters, which of course takes you back to vaccination passports.

Annual boosters with the mutations covered makes sense to me - I have no medical qualification - which means that an internationally recognised vaccine passport makes even more sense. So that stuffs up British travellers as our government has assured us that they will not be getting involved in a vaccine passport. Plus this lot would probably screw that up as they have with every aspect of the pandemic apart from letting the NHS treat people and plan and deliver the vaccination programme - the government repeatedly locked down late and ineffectually, bribed people to mix socially in the summer and allowed the borders to remain open with no enforced isolation until mid February 2021 thereby creating a tidal wave of cases for the NHS to try to tackle.