Travel now?

[LD Hack]

I'm trying to decide whether to travel to SA this September/October - Peru in particular, staying in country. Currently their vaccination rate for at least the first shot is around 30%. They had very high infection rates during the spring surge, to the point where one person I know believes this created a level of herd immunity throughout the country. The WHO weekly confirmed new cases chart is quite low.

This is a difficult decision to make, mostly assessing the level of risk, and whether it's of a level of high concern. Another variable is the potential for an upcoming surge; the delta and lambda variants becoming established.

Then there is the issue of "gringo traveling in small villages" and the local population's perceived threat that a traveler may spread covid. Yes, I'm vaccinated, but I wonder what the perceptions well be. Will the traveler be shunned, cautiously or reluctantly welcomed...

I'm interested in hearing what other travelers are thinking about this issue.

[brclarke]

The way I see it, there are three possibilities: things could get better, things could stay about the same - or things could get worse. The first two situations, you know how to deal with, but what about the third? If you're in the middle of your tour and things get a whole lot worse, and the borders start to shut down again, what's your plan? Worst case scenario is that you'll have to lockup the bike for 6-12 months and fly home.

I have no idea what the odds are of that third scenario. Perhaps 1 in a million, but it could happen. You have to decide if you can afford to take that gamble.

[Rapax]

I think there is still a big misunderstood existing regarding vaccination. Right now the vaccination rate of a country or a continent doesn`t predict anything about the future progress of the pandemic or your personal health condition as a traveller.

Think about Isreal or UK. Both have a quite the same vaccination rate and both show an increase of infections. Also both, Israel earlier than UK, decided to easing restrictions for different reasons. None of the vaccines both countries used offer a complete protection against hospitalization due to the Delta variant.

The experience and evidental data the world has got up to now with C19 vaccination shows if a partially immune population starts replicating a virus by high numbers of infections, it will inevitably produce escape variants of the virus. India is the best known proof for this.

What will the world do if one this escape variants will be vaccine-resistant?

You should be aware of that even if you are vaccinated by what vaccine whatever, you can get infected with a C19 variant. In the majority of cases you will be protected against a perilious course of illness.

You as a vaccinated traveller and the vaccinated people of the area or country you are visiting could be a possible spreaders as well. There is no medical evidence given up to now that excludes these possibilty of virus reproduction. This fact could give power to virus to convert itself into a vaccine-resistant one.

It is equal if you travel or if you stay in your home country. Every country which isn`t vaccinated to 100% or to a rate to recieve herd immunity will take part in the game of virus mutations.

In the moment nobody can predict in what kind of pandemic situation the world will be in 2 month. The worldwide vaccination rate is still everywhere much to low to prevent further mutations.

As brclarke said: It`s a gamble in the moment and you decide about your bet!

[Tomkat]

Personally I'm staying in my own country this year. The situation with the virus is still too unpredictable, as are the actions of governments at their borders. Even though I'm fully vaccinated I don't want to get stuck somewhere or quarantined or be the one who brings the virus to a village. There's plenty of time to travel without being foolish or selfish. I'm planning my big one in 2022 but I won't firm up plans until early in the year, just in case.

[newguyjon]

My friend and I plan to start the ride from USA to Argentina in November of this year.
In my experience traveling the world, it has always been one thing or another.

In Mexico City it was an earthquake.
In Indonesia we had to cancel plans due to Mt. Agung erupting, and had to cancel Rinca Island due to flooding.
We visited Myanmar just in time before the country again became embroiled in civil war.

That said, you just have to exercise caution and discipline during the pandemic. Naturally, avoid crowded areas, be clean, and wear a mask (at least one country along the route requiring two masks now). I know that of the <40,000 tourists to Thailand in the past year, people were able to enjoy entire beaches and other retreats all to themselves. The same holds true in other tourist destinations, such as CA and SA. Yes, COVID is rampant, but less crowds and tourists out and about = less human interaction, which is my type of traveling.

The world is very, very small now. I know that if I waited or canceled travel due to unfavorable circumstances, I would not have visited many of the places that I have been to.

Make no mistake, I am not recommending you to travel if you are not comfortable with it, I am just adding food for thought.

[TerryTheLuddite]

This is something I've contemplated a lot since covid sprouted up. I've been saving for a few years and originally planned to leave February this year. I bet a November departure would work out.

For me it's less about whether I can technically ride through all the borders and more about when the most optimal time is. I bet I could ride for a long time in mexico and thread the needle through the borders as I'm able to, but the whole thing would be a lot more enjoyable if i could press forward in a more carefree manner. A big aspect of travel is interaction with people. If some countries have populations which are apprehensive about outsiders, I fear that the experiences have a lot less potential.

On a personal note, having to push the departure date for myself has caused me to back out of the escapism mindset I've been in for these last two years. I'm going to love traveling (probably next year), but its been good to save more and explore the mountains here.

[Erik_G]

This with Covid 19 has two sides.

Number 1:

The risk to catch the virus and get sick.
The base is off course your vaccination.
It reduces the risk to get infected, significant.
And almost removes the risk to get serious ill.

You can also control the by your own behaviour. Riding solo. Camping and sleeping by yourself in a tent. Prepare most food yourself. Avoid restaurants, bars.....
Keep distace and avoid crowded areas.

Vaccin + common sence should reduce risk to a "low" level.
That would not be an issue for me.

Number 2:

Political decisions about restricitions.
You can't predict this or influnce it.
Borders open and close. (At the moment, most SA bordes are closed. So it is not up to you to take risks or not. They will just not let you in)
Driving on roads goes from OK to forbidden.
You risk to be in a country somewhere and not be allowed to leave the house. This has happened both in Europe and South America. You can't even get to an airport to get home. And not to mention the bike, if you are able to get home. This can happen any time, any where.

From my view, I would not bring my bike somewhere outside the country where I live. Only go on a journey where I could rent a bike. Or maybe buy a local one. And stay inside that country where the bike is registred. No Temporary Import Permits to other countries. So I could leave the bike and return home.

But that is my view. Everyone can have their own view.

My advice is to look into the stories on Youtube by
Itchy Boots and
Pedro Mota
That where in SA when the restrictions hit.
One get stuck in Peru. The other in Argentina.
I do not write their stories here. Watch yourself.
=

I had plans to go to SA. But the Covid stroke ½ year before by departure. Of course I was/am disapointed. But very happy that I not were in SA when that happened.

[Erik_G]

Risk number 1:
To have to leave the bike. And maybe loose it or get a lot of problem to get in home in the future:

You do not have that risks, since you already have a Peru registred bike stored there. And leave canleave it there again without problem

Risk number 2:
Get stuck due to closed borders.
Well, as long as you stay in Peru, that will not be an issue.

Extra
The considerations you have done so far will be a good base, when you finally get there.

=> I consider the risks, with a trip like the one you are planning, to be rather low.
=
I hope that you make a decision that you will feel was the correct one.
And, if you go there: please write about your journey. Here on this forum.


==

I am actually looking for doing something similar. Instead of my planned trip around in some SA contries,. To go to Colombia or Argentina. Colombia for the moment is maybe not so good. So I look for Argentina.
To go there. Buy a local bike. (Maybe an Argentinian made Royal Enfield Himalayan). Drive around inside Argentina incl the complete Ruta 40. And sell the bike before returning.

It is a legal and rather simple process for a non resident to buy an Argentinan bike. But you are not allowed take it out of Argentina.

Argentina's borders are closed for the moment. But I keep the situation on the radar during the European winter.

==

[tohellnback]

if you pick Colombia you have made a good choice in my opinion It is dirt cheap here and whatever floats your boat for choices of motos.
I Cruze the national buy and sell regularly looking at used bikes, the prices are par with anything you will find in Canada. Not the US because of the greater volume, the buck is stronger so you win anyway .
Argentina on the other hand is expensive compared to here, Sure its a beautiful country but has winter in the south, Its like being in Canada put your bike away.
In one hour from where I live 1000m 26c I can be in the Paramo eg, alpine 3400 or higher in one hour or two
There are plenty of problems here with civil unrest, corruption and extreme poverty But once you get out on the country roads to the real Colonial Colombia towns you wish you could never leave
Visa is Necessary and its all about choices
Expat Canuk living in Colombia

[Snakeboy]

Most certainly for future trips Im gonna buy or possibly rent locally. Because that saves me money for shipping and expensive insurances. And also I can buy a bike thats common in the country I travel and thus is easier to get fixed and find spare parts for.

But for longer travels like RTW, Alaska to Ushuaia, Europe to Australia or North Cape to Cape Town or similar its of course better and more practical to have one bike for the whole trip.

But for future trips I have been thinking of like roundtrips in Vietnam, Philippines, Myanmar (might be a looong time into the future unfortunately) India/Nepal - buying something locally makes much more sense….