The first Algerian kidnapping since 2003 happened in Alidema, near the Tadrart, ESE of Djanet in the early evening (6pm) of 2 February 2011.

The Algerian domino has fallen. What can be learnt from the incident?

1. The kidnapping occurred in an area close to the Algerian/Niger/Libya border, but particularly close to the Niger border. Reports are that the bandits took off for Niger during the hours of darkness but first destroyed the lights of the guide's car - presumably to buy time. The UK FCO travel warning for Algeria has long posted the following warning: "We also advise that you exercise extreme caution in the areas bordering Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Libya and Tunisia." While much of the Algerian Sahara open to tourism is reasonably secure, the border areas cannot be secure. The FCO warning has proven to be accurate. Many tourists who know Algeria have known to stay clear of the border areas, particularly the far, far south near Niger and Mali. The kidnapping location was well chosen - a short drive to Niger. The timing of the kidnapping at or just after sunset suggests that the tactic was to clear off to Niger as soon as possible. On 2nd February there was no moon. The night would have been dark - part of the plan no doubt.

2. The incident seems to have happened near a known camping spot in the Alidema region - a region famous for many rock arches. It seems that the bandits expected more than one tourist.

3. For the first time the bandits have kidnapped a woman on her own. Previously women have been taken as part of a group which included men (e.g. Austrian from Tunisia, Spanish from Mauri, Italians from Mauri). In some cases, the women have been released earlier than the men (e.g. Spanish) or have been offered release earlier than men (e.g. Italians from Mauri). The tactic of taking a lone woman is a first. I think it was unplanned on the part of AQIM.

4. The bandits have reportedly told the tourist agency in Djanet that tourism is un-Islamic. While AQIM have succeeded in closing down tourism over vast stretches of the Sahara, this is the first incident I know of where there has been a direct instruction to cease tourism. One would imagine that the instruction would be unpopular in places like Agadez, Djanet and Tam where there is little else to the current economy. Now that there has been a direct instruction to close tourism (compared with tourism being damaged as a result of AQIM activities), can we expect attitudes to AQIM in the local community to change? I would have thought so. But will that make any material difference to the fortunes of AQIM? I don't think so.

5. There has been long standing discussion on the Sahara Travel Forum about why no kidpanning has happened in Algeria since 2003. There has been discussion, for example, about the role of the guide in somehow preventing the kidnappings although no one could be clear about exactly how this worked - in other words exactly what it was that deterred AQIM from taking tourists in the presence of guides. That all seems to have changed now. There does not appear to be anything on AQIM's side from stopping AQIM from taking tourists in Algeria in the presence of guides. Clearly AQIM have preferred not to operate in Algeria, but there seems to have been no ideological reason why they did not. Perhaps scarcity of tourists elsewhere have driven them there - in the same way that they had to go to Niamey to find the two French guys.

6. In this case, on the morning before the kidnapping, the tourist returned to Djanet, where the car(s) refueled and then drove out to Alidema. One suggestion is that the tourist was followed or that news on the destination was passed on. In my view it is not possible, when travelling with guides, to keep travel plans and destinations secret. The only way to ensure this is if one were in one's own vehicle and without a guide/cook/driver. But travel without a guide is not permitted in Libya/Algeria/Niger etc.

7. The towns in Algeria (e.g. Djanet and Tam) and some routes away from the borders in Algeria remain secure in my view. AQIM know that the security is too tight this far in to Algeria. But the open desert 70km or so from the border cannot be secure.

8. What does this mean for Libya? My feeling is that AQIM will consider SW Libya fair game. And what about Maroc?