Yes, I spotted the rather pointed 'Coptic' ref too.

Re: the US Africom base in Tam. As we know there is a nearly finished installation there just north of the airport but with no exclusive runway.

I read a few documents by a US Saharan counter-terrorist specialist Lianne Kennedy-Boudali the other night (2 from 2007 on Welcome to the Combating Terrorism Center, and one Senate testimonial from 2009) in which she suggests people, including locals, assumed the installation was for Africom because it was being built by Brown & Root (Halliburton subsidiaries?), when in fact it was for the Algies. (Construction stopped amid corruption allegations not unlike those plaguing Sonatrach at the moment). You do wonder why the Algies could not build this themselves unless it is super hi-tech and was built in return for oil and gas concessions.

Of course writing for West Point might cast doubt on LHB's impartiality, but nothing else I read in her docs looked like it had a hawkish agenda. She seemed rather rational and coherant, especially about the move from GSPC to AQIM as well as predicting Droukal's shaky position which seems to have come to pass according to Dave's post above.

Regarding the French engineers building new? air strips in north Mali. You wonder why bother, they have all the all-weather runway they need at Bordj Moktar, the same at Agadez (both just 600km from the near-Menaka 'Red Zone'), and a mile long strip at Chegga (all in 'safer' Alg, Niger and Mori respectively).

Perhaps part of the deal is Mali gets improved runways at Tessalit and especially Kidal and nice new airstrips elsewhere to better control the area in the future.


Maybe this is has been said already but the more I think and read the more I feel there are two separate 'narco-Salafist' groups out there in north Mali:

MBM (whose latest arrest warrant Ulrich has announced above) based somewhere in the Taoudenni region for many many years - good for fast smuggling routes. Notably MBM never joined up with the re-branded AQIM and long before this all started was seen as purely a crim-businessman and even a Robin Hood figure (who has also been killed/arrested several times/retired to Togo/blamed for the falling £/got an amnesty/surrendered/works for the DRS/does not exist at all).

And hardcore AQIM Abou Zaid down to the southeast, north of Menaka, where most hostages have been/are being kept, including unfortunate Edwin Dyer. Definitely exists and not a Robin Hood figure.

all idle speculation of course...

Ch

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Morocco Overland 4 (2025) • Trans Morocco Trail

If the campaign is planned around fighter/bombers (like Mig23) then 600km is probably too far (response time too slow, fuel/range a problem) and dirt strips like at Chenachen (not Chegga?) are too short and the wrong surface for the Migs. That said, a bombing campaign is misguided. Better to base it round some Mi-24 choppers (easy to refuel anywhere on the ground, easy to chase targets on the ground and with appropriate kit on board). Butterfly tactics work well (chopper one stands 10 minutes off), chopper two flits around, lands here and there to draw attention and when the attention finally arrives, chopper one joins the party. Its worked well elsewhere. Bombing runs, by comparison, are more miss than hit.

"(not Chegga?)"
Added by Ch: There is a 1.5-km airstrip 4.6km west of Chegga fort, but as you say, big helicopters better.
Added by RW: 4.6-km east of Chegga fort?

Howz about drones? The americans are starting to us them in Somalia, and also targeted killings.

I heard that Alg are blocking transport of water and commodities to Tessalit region - could this be at all effective? Evidently it has been a successful tactic in pacifying the south, controlling water and fuel.
But the border is huge and there is enough water in Tessalit, no?

maliweb - Enquêtes sur le terrorisme sahelo-saharien : Au cœur de l’empire salafiste

Gogoonisch - E

maliweb - La métastase Belmokhtar

Gogoonisch - E

Ulrich

Both interesting articles from Ulrich from a Malian POV.

Of MBM they say the ...man is credited with all the powers, starting with the gift of ubiquity. You see him everywhere at the same time, Blida, Algeria, Tedjerert Mali, Mauritania Alegh, Agadez in Niger... A sort of Lucky Luke in turbans...

but this time they speculate the game could be up for him.

Ch

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Morocco Overland 4 (2025) • Trans Morocco Trail

DW - Diplomatic row threatens Western-backed alliance in the Sahel against al Qaeda

Ulrich

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