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10 Jan 2011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard K
You might think so. But then we don't hear too much about their commitment & strategy in the area generally. My point is, whatever is going on, it all looks very pro-active on the ground.
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Info from those kidnapped themselves in the recent past has not been forthcoming either (as far as I can tell). Its only been the Canadian diplomat who provided useful details. My guess is that those who have been set free have been asked to keep details away from the public domain.
Richard, can you say more about what you've seen on the ground?
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10 Jan 2011
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This was a daring kidnapping in down-town Niamey, where French may have thought they would be safe. One gets the impression that Aqim are willing to strike anywhere, even where the odds for a successful operation are not the best.
But the risk-reward factor has changed over the last year, after the ransom was collected for the Spanish there hasn't been any easy paydays for Aqim.
This time noone has accused touaregs and it appears the kidnappers were Aqim proper, from their appearance and since they ultimately killed their hostages.
Even if Aqim stronghold is still in north Mali, there is a lot of dodgy business going on in the Gao-Menaka region that is spilling over into south Niger.
I wonder what had happened if the victims had been, say Swedish? Dutch? British? Surely the reaction from the French and Niger army would have been less?
Would that be a good or bad thing, from the hostages POV?
I hope the bad guys were roughed up enough they won't try this again, but one never knows. I wonder who and where they will target next. Impossible to guess, but perhaps not in Mori. I would be careful esp. if travelling through Niger now. North Nigeria may become the next Aqim stronghold. In Mali, the festivals are going on this month and I hope visitors are vigilant.
Touareg news from the area Actualités - Temoust.org | Le portail du peuple touareg berbère Kel Tamasheq
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10 Jan 2011
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Good coverage in French. Aqmi serait bien-a-l-origine-du-rapt
Quote:
"Eliminated coldly"
The two French nationals kidnapped Friday in Niamey were "coldly eliminated" by their captors, also said Francois Fillon. "The hostage-takers, when they saw they were followed, hostages were eliminated coldly according to preliminary results available to me." "Obviously the investigation is thorough. And all the results will be communicated to families."
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The victims, very young.
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10 Jan 2011
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On scenario I am interpreting from reading the above is that the French guys were killed in Niger during the first rescue attempt in the night near Ouallam (where it was initially reported the Nigerienne forces backed off for fear of killing the hostages).
AQIM then fled back to Mali 'safe haven' by which time the French had been mobilised and took them on there, possibly knowing the 2 guys were already dead and so without needing to hold back unduly.
Ch
but from what follows below, perhaps this was a generous interpretation. C
Last edited by Chris Scott; 13 Jan 2011 at 10:11.
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10 Jan 2011
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A detail added by this report
French helicopters comb Mali skies: News24: Africa: News
notes that four French choppers, based in Menaka, took part in the attack on Saturday.
This is either additional to the reported choppers from Ouga or else one of the reports is not right. Menaka is well located between Niamey and NE Mali to make the intercept.
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11 Jan 2011
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11 Jan 2011
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13 Jan 2011
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From the article DTH has just posted:
Abu Mohammed, who identified himself as a media official for Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) ....... said the abduction came "in the context of responding to France's repressive policies against Muslims and its participation in the crusade in Afghanistan".
AQIM has also abducted nationals from Togo and Madagascar (in the raid on Arlit) which makes a nonsense of this sort of statement.
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13 Jan 2011
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I would say if money is the prime motive, then dont get distracted with sensational/risky hits like Niamey, although really I think Niamey was mostly convenient.
'... left alone if he does not engage in hostile action on our soil' it says here of MBM in Mali.
Maybe that explains why the last 5 grabs have not been in Mali even if all are destined to end there. If Col. El Hadj gets a slice of the pay out, no harm done as far as he's concerned.
Would it be possible to conceal the fact that there were French gunships based in Menaka, right on their path out (as suggested)? You'd imagine not.
We all know that hostage rescues go wrong, like the Scottish woman in Afghanistan, but assuming we have the right end of the stick, this does not sound like much of a rescue. Why not keep going and shoot out the camps where other 5-7 Arevas are holed up in north Mali. That could finish off AQIM up there at the cost of a few colaterals.
I suppose the French are now bargaining on the 'human shield' aspect of no reprisals on the Arevas.
On the whole I think the discussion about 'which bullet killed whom' misses the critical point.
If the gunships went in blazing without warning and knowing the 2 guys were in there, it's a whole new ball game. But we may never know that for sure.
I wonder how it's all going down with French public. It's a bold bluff to call but could put an end to French being targets. Perhaps a quick scandal will help bury it, or the French can see the big picture.
Ch
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10 Jan 2011
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One of them was a just new worker in my company (Capgemini).
Quote:
Originally Posted by priffe
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10 Jan 2011
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Washington
Info from those kidnapped themselves in the recent past has not been forthcoming either (as far as I can tell). Its only been the Canadian diplomat who provided useful details. My guess is that those who have been set free have been asked to keep details away from the public domain.
Richard, can you say more about what you've seen on the ground?
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I think it is an open secret that the French mil are in Mauri to stay and in a significant capacity. Just as it sounds like they are in Mali
In December there were daily military flights of cargo planes, helicopters and what looked (to my non spotter eyes) like prop-engined trainers over and around Atar. Even a couple of times the rattle of canon fire and explosions (French/Mauritanian target exercises apparently).
So presumably they are training the Mauri's and one would speculate providing air support way out East to where the real activity looks to be. Also lots of stories of big army convoys trucking out that way.
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