Good time for Mexico Travel ... Exchange Rate is UP!

[mollydog]

The Peso/Dollar exchange rate has been going up sharply the last few months.
Big jump up just from a year ago:
About 12.5 to 13 per dollar a year ago.
NOW: about 15.0 to 15.5 per dollar.

And the exchange rate appears to be continuing UP ... Where is this going?

If this continues ... watch for a total devaluation and currency change. This has happened many times before in Mexico ... at times with disastrous consequences for those heavily invested in Mex. Pesos.

Things are more stable now ... with more controls in place ... but who knows? After all, it's Mexico!

I was there in '95 when the last "Crash" happened. One day, it was about 3.2 per dollar, next day, went to 10 per dollar and a whole new currency was introduced (pesos nuevos) ... and in a few months the "old" money was worthless. (coins too!)

The insiders were ready, put all assets into dollars, then came back in after the devaluation and bought up everything CHEAP. They made Millions ... But millions were burned.

For now, the 15 to one makes Mexico a pretty good deal for travelers ...but in reality this barely keeps up with Mexico's inflation ... about 10% to 15% per annum, depending who you talk to.

Have fun!

[Tony LEE]

We have pretty much given up worrying about exchange rates simply because, like food and fuel prices, there isn't much you can do about it in the long term.
Doesn't always work, but we do carry a reasonable wad of US dollars and that can come in handy when visiting countries like Argentina with healthy currency black market, but even then, it eventually runs out and that just leaves whatever comes out of local ATMs

[MikeMike]

In 1994-1995, the peso went from 3.19 to the dollar to 7.4 to the dollar during a two week period. It did not go from 3 to 10 overnight. I had already been living here for two years when it happened and remember it quite well. I was working and earned a salary in pesos. The peso stabilized around 6 by May 1995.
Nobody was giving anyone 10 to 1, in peso to dollar, a day after the devaluation began. That, like a lot of stuff on this HUBB thread is total bullsht. The new pesos with the dropped zeroes were already in circulation and the last of the old bills and coins were gone a few years later.

[mollydog]

You're probably right Mike, but IIRC, the peso went up to 10 very shortly after the event, yes?

I believe within a few months or maybe a year, it stabilized at 10 and stayed there a long time. My memory is a bit vague ... the main thing I recall is how ANGRY some of our Mexican friends were who had ALL their money in Pesos in Mexican banks. Others had converted to dollars and kept US dollars in banks in Miami. They were lucky.

one note ... All the Americans on the Movie Crew I was working on (Yes, I had an official work permit) all were selling cash Dollars to our local Mexican crew members ... as at the time, hard to get dollars from banks.

the rate? 10 to one ... and they were very happy to pay that as many thought the rate might go even higher.

What is your opinion of the situation now? Do you believe the Peso will continue to Drop in value against the dollar? Are you in favor of Mexico selling off Pemex assets to foreign companies? (like in the 1940')

One Hotel owner I talked too (well educated guy) felt that many Mexicans were living on Credit ... as now Credit cards are easy to get for Mexicans.
He said too many living off Credit cards ... paying huge interest rate as they could not pay off the debt.

Your thoughts?

I hope the tourists come back to Mexico ... with more tourists driving to Mexico ... like the old days. This way money is spread all round the country ... not just Cancun.

[MikeMike]

The black market peso dollar at that time never went to 10 to 1 outside of your movie set. The peso sat around 7 for awhile and then it fluctuated some more under both Fox and Calderon. Now the problems are more profound as government budgets were tied to a high price of oil and a minimum of $70 dollars. The price of oil is below that and creating havoc. There are massive problems with infrastructure, fraud, corruption, and some state governments are bankrupt. It was inevitable with a return to "the perfect dictatorship". The peso will sit at 15-16 until social unrest or an unexpected political event happens. Barring that it will recover slightly. The guys on your set were likely trading on fear mongering.
I would blame those pesky grips, they all have a twisted sense of humor when they get bored.
The civil unrest hasn't even started yet here. This is going to be a tough year.

[mollydog]

Originally Posted by MikeMike

The black market peso dollar at that time never went to 10 to 1 outside of your movie set. The peso sat around 7 for awhile and then it fluctuated some more under both Fox and Calderon. Now the problems are more profound as government budgets were tied to a high price of oil and a minimum of $70 dollars. The price of oil is below that and creating havoc. There are massive problems with infrastructure, fraud, corruption, and some state governments are bankrupt. It was inevitable with a return to "the perfect dictatorship". The peso will sit at 15-16 until social unrest or an unexpected political event happens. Barring that it will recover slightly. The guys on your set were likely trading on fear mongering.
I would blame those pesky grips, they all have a twisted sense of humor when they get bored.
The civil unrest hasn't even started yet here. This is going to be a tough year.

Well said Mike. It's sad things have to get so bad that people are forced into action. Same here in USA. Nothing happens unless we take to the streets.

Pesky Grips! RIGHT! Have you ever seen the sign placed in the bathroom on
a set? (put up by electricians)
GRIPS: PLEASE DO NOT EAT THE URINAL CAKES!

Good break down of things. But remember, Oil was up OVER $100 a barrel not long ago, not $70. As you say. Forgot how high it went. It crashed but it slowly creeping back up now.

Funny, crossing at Nogales Mexican fuel was around $3 a gallon (nationwide), but cross the border in Nogales, AZ? $2.67 !!! (it's come back up since then)
A very long time since we've seen That!

Speaking on infrastructure ... riding North last November, mostly on and off Mex 15, once North of about Culiacan, I saw massive road projects going on. Literally hundreds of tractors, earth movers, Cement and Gravel trucks, D5 Cats and more. A HUGE effort. (mostly on Mex 15)

Projects would go on for 60 miles! (I kept track) ... then there would be a break, then it would begin again. Those Northern states must have made some sort of deal ... or?

Huge efforts rebuilding, widening, modernizing the highways. Bigger than anything I've ever seen even in the USA. I've no idea where the money is coming from ... but there it is. Thousands of guys at work, thats the good news I guess.

What's your analysis of this? Also saw a fair amount of road work and other projects like Bridges, flood control out on smaller back roads as well.

[travelinhobo]

As someone living here in MX, and with growing pesos to exchange since October, do you really have to word your message so...pessimistically? We are quite aware of the situation, quite aware that "this is Mexico", quite aware that that drop has been going on for almost half a year now. Good for you, but bad for us and you could remember that.