Libya February 2011

[Roger Bruton]

Is he any crazier than Mugabe??

No-one seems bothered about what THAT nutter gets up to!

Oh! That's right! ... There's no oil in Zimbabwe!

[Knight of the Holy Graal]

The situation of that man inside his bunker in Tripoli reminds me the last hours of Adolf Hitler inside the Reichstag in flames, 30.05.1945.
Who knows if it'll finish in the same way...

mercenaries from Mauri too

still, he's a dead man

[pecha72]

The inability to make wise decisions is probably why his people have now finally had enough.

Not stepping down, and the ugly crimes he´s performing against his own people just add to that long list of bad decisions... No way that bastard will ever get away with this.

[Richard Washington]

These are some thoughts on the changing scene in Libya as it relates to those who want to spend time in the desert in Libya.


For a long time now, Libya has been a Saharan destination which has allowed safe travel. I think it is the only Saharan country (bar Morocco) in which there has been no kidnappings in the last 10 years. I expect that the situation will be different after the dust settles in Libya because:
1) Whatever has kept AQIM from operating there will probably have passed. AQIM is losing no time in wading in. For example see:
Qaeda vows to back Libya uprising: News24: Africa: News
"Nicosia - Al-Qaeda's branch in North Africa has vowed to do everything in its power to help an uprising against Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi, according to a statement posted on Thursday by the SITE monitoring group".


2) It has been the case that countries ruled by very effective military/police, once liberalised, become a lot more unsafe (e.g. Russia, South Africa).


So while many will be pleased to see Mr Gaddafi gone, it will almost certainly change things for desert travellers (this post is not meant as a justification of the green flag in any way).

[priffe]

There has been warnings of the possible takeover of islamists in the popular uprisings in the arab world, but so far they have been either unsuccessful or kept a low profile.

In the long run, introduction of democracy is the best cure against extremism, military pressure is not. But short term there will be turmoil as the influence of Qadaffi and his money suddenly disappears. He has been supporting dictators like Mugabe and also Aziz in Mauritania.

The Libyan islamists were almost wiped out in prison massacres by Qadaffi in 1996.
In Libya's Escalating Chaos, an Opening for al-Qaeda?

[Yves]

Hi,

read in Liberté-Algérie:

"...Large groups of foreigners, traveling in Libya (tourists and visitors), are also supported on their return to the checkpoints Tarat (Illizi) and further south of Tinalkoum (Djanet), the source said . The Minister of Interior and Local Government, Daho Ould Kablia, said Wednesday on France 24 that Algeria had opened its borders to foreigners unable to leave Libya by air to their countries of origin."

LIBERTE, QUOTIDIEN NATIONAL D'INFORMATION -

[roro]

Thanks Yves for this info.
I was almost sure that they tried to go away through Algeria but no reliable info before (As far as I know).

RR.

[bobrayner]

Originally Posted by Richard Washington

I expect that the situation will be different after the dust settles in Libya

Pragmatically, I think there's a tradeoff. Without such strict state control over various areas of society, maybe some of the more dangerous elements might raise their head above the parapet; but on the other hand Libya becomes more accessible to outsiders.

Try drawing a scattergraph of countries; the X axis is a measure of how free the citizens are, and the Y axis is a measure of how easy it is (in terms of paperwork, fees, official escorts &c) for a tourist to bring in a vehicle and spend 2 weeks roaming around the wilderness. I think we'd find a positive correlation...

I hope this is over sooner rather than later. The longer Gaddafi tries to cling on to power, the more people suffer.

[Richard Washington]

Originally Posted by bobrayner

Try drawing a scattergraph of countries; the X axis is a measure of how free the citizens are, and the Y axis is a measure of how easy it is (in terms of paperwork, fees, official escorts &c) for a tourist to bring in a vehicle and spend 2 weeks roaming around the wilderness. I think we'd find a positive correlation...

As we know Morocco and Tunisia are the easiest countries in North Africa to travel in. You can pitch up and roam round. Morocco isn't really characterised by the deep, wide-open Sahara and Tunisia may still restrict movement where the country starts to look like the Sahara. As we've learnt, the people in Tunisia were not so free.

Most 'deep' Saharan countries (Algeria, Niger, Libya, Chad, Mali, Egypt) impose restrictions on travel. Of these Libya and Egypt are arguably the most restrictive (paperwork, fees, official escorts etc) but are also the safest historically from the perspective of kidnappings.

One day these 'deep' Saharan countries may be more like Morocco in the sense that they may be more relaxed about paperwork, fees, escorts and so on. But there is no example to hand of any 'deep' Saharan country that has made this transition. My main point in the earlier posting is that in the course of the transition to a free country, with fewer restrictions, Libya will become more unsafe as this has so often been the case where the lid has been lifted on repressive regimes. A part of me also wonders whether the deep Sahara will ever (meaning next 10-15 years) return to the situation where unrestricted travel will be allowed (as it was in Libya in 1999, Algeria up to 2003).

[Roman]

Originally Posted by bobrayner

Try drawing a scattergraph of countries; the X axis is a measure of how free the citizens are, and the Y axis is a measure of how easy it is (in terms of paperwork, fees, official escorts &c) for a tourist to bring in a vehicle and spend 2 weeks roaming around the wilderness. I think we'd find a positive correlation...

Bob,

Observation not quite based on scientific rigour. Less bureaucracy in Tunisia was not a sign of political freedom but high dependence on tourism. In Egypt, freedom of movement in the desert was extremely bureaucratized, because of its irrelevance to mass beach tourism (governed by a diferent set of rules altogehter). In Libya, desert tourism was also considered a nuisance, but bureacracy was bearable compared to Egypt, etc...

Your reasoning is, of course true, but only in relation to that part of the world that has embraced the concept of tourism as part of public diplomacy.

Some time ago, while in Italy I was required to produce my passport to exchange a hundred quid at a cambio (long before the money laundering regulations were introduced). I had no passport on me so I had to take a long walk to the hotel before being able to buy lunch. That was an act of an "oppressive regime" by my standards

[priffe]

Must be tempting for young touaregs, money and adventure. Worrisome report from Kidal
AFP: Kadhafi recruiting hundreds of Tuareg fighters: Mali

At the same time, thousands of subsaharan africans in Libya, many working in construction or oil, are fleeing or hiding as they are attacked by Libyan rebels, accused of being mercenaries.

[Richard Washington]

here's hoping that Budrinna, long time poster on the Sahara forum, is safely in the desert somewhere....

[Richard Washington]

more on the recruitment of Tauregs as mercenaries in Libya. The article below talks of 800 with some of the recruitment being done from a Libyan owned hotel in Bamako.

Gaddafi recruits 800 Tuareg mercenaries: News24: Africa: News

[wywial]

Hi Guys,

I have just returned from Libya. We crossed border in Wazin (Nalut) on 2nd of March. Since 23rd of Feb we were going through deserts from Al Uweynat to the western border with Tunisia. 2/3 of the country is safe, quiet and very friendly. Police is friendly and supportive but military checkpoints are sometime a problem as those guys are very nervous. Leaving the country we had to pass through Nalut road and rebel checkpoints. They were also easygoing and friendly despite being surrounded by Ghadaffi units that we had to pass through as well.

All in all, safe and quiet in desert, mess in few cities in the north. Looks like Libya will be out of tourist destination list at least for 6 months.

Cheers,

Jarek