Islamist activity in the Sahara in relation to travel security

[Richard Washington]

Originally Posted by priffe

Abu Zeid portrayed in an interview with Pierre Camatte who met him four times
Abou Zeid: le stratège froid d'Al Qaida au Maghreb - De Bagdad �* Jérusalem : L'Orient indiscret

These sort of interviews seem very rare these days. After 2003, there were serials, books, TV interviews. Now, a page or so is all we get and usually with the key, informed, interesting questions left out as some journo blunders through. Has anyone seen anything from the Spanish?

[Chris Scott]

I just read the Camatte ABZ interview too. Every time PC crops up in a trenchant article I see a strategic, French govt-sanctioned 'press release'.

Anyone else ('civilians') is expected to shut up and be grateful to be have their lives back.

Interesting that ABZ asked about real time internet sat mapping on the web but can't see that it might work both ways.

Re: smugglers tracking AQIM. I read it as a clumsy bluff to try and shake AQIM up and make them paranoid. AQ and smugglers surely work closely together, no? Some are bound to have a good idea of the AQ network - but will they tell? Maybe for a suitcase of USD.

Ch

[Richard Washington]

Originally Posted by Chris Scott

Interesting that ABZ asked about real time internet sat mapping on the web but can't see that it might work both ways.
Ch

I'm a little confused about what ABZ intended in his query about the satellite imagery. If he thinks US spy satellite imagery is available online, then his grasp on the enemy isn't what it should be. If he thinks such imagery is available, he may have been wanting to access it to figure out where counter insurgency forces are.

He may simply have been fishing - he's an older, non-techie guy who lives a long way from civilisation afterall. He may have heard of google earth, for example, and might have been wanting to find out how often it gets updated.

[priffe]

Algeria and France are struggling for the initiative in the fight against Aqim.
How will Algeria conduct the fight without letting their troops cross the border, even after they are attacked by Aqim and invited by Mali to pursue the offenders?
Mali leader complaining since he feels this is an Algerian problem that has spread to his country
Le Figaro - deficit-de-cooperation-mali

He said that the meeting of the staffs of four countries Sunday "is just one part of a larger plan should be put in place," and recalled that a meeting of intelligence agencies' s was held Wednesday in Algiers. "I called in September 2006, at a conference Sahel-Sahelian for peace and development in the presence of heads of state," he recalls. "But nobody listened to me for four years, four years lost," complains the president of Mali. About the army offensives against Mauritanian AQIM in Mali, he asserts that his country is "open". "We agree that the neighboring states come to us if we can go visit them," he said.

In this struggle against extremist groups, "the role of France should remain in accompanying and supporting the material level," he said. About a possible French military operation, he said that his country would "consider all requests." "But France must listen to us," he added.

Mauri PM chimes in
Alger "peut faire plus" contre Aqmi - Europe1.fr - International

Even Khadaffi joins in and promises money to northern Mali
Kadhafi backs anti-AQIM effort by Mali tribal chiefs (Magharebia.com)

[priffe]

TheMoorNextDoor updated his info re the attacks this July against Tigarghar mtns.
An Algerian source says that the Mauri attack was a decoy and the real attack to liberate Germenau was done by French + Algs using Alg helicopters.
[url=http://themoornextdoor.wordpress.com/2010/08/03/update-re-raids-against-aqim-in-mali/]Update RE: Raids against AQIM in Mali

[Richard Washington]

Originally Posted by priffe

An Algerian source says that the Mauri attack was a decoy and the real attack to liberate Germenau was done by French + Algs using Alg helicopters.
[url=http://themoornextdoor.wordpress.com/2010/08/03/update-re-raids-against-aqim-in-mali/]Update RE: Raids against AQIM in Mali

Most of this makes a lot of sense i.e. Alg+French doing the raid by chopper in NE Mali while Mauri does something else in the west. The conspiracy stuff in the second half of para 4 (i.e. France being shafted by Alg) seems very far fetched. The problem with these raids is most likely quite simply: 1) ensuring surprise 2) getting fresh, accurate intelligence on the camp locations. Taken together 1+2 will explain most of the lack of success.

[priffe]

Wait, the msg was cut in half by the forum's messy editor :/
There was more
TheMoorNextDoor updated his info re the attacks this July against Tigarghar mtns.
An Algerian source says that the Mauri attack was a decoy and the real attack to liberate Germenau was done by French + Algs using Alg helicopters.
Update RE: Raids against AQIM in Mali � The Moor Next Door

Here confusion starts.
The other source for this was Menas

Menas Associates: Menas Reports > Focus Monthly Reports > Algeria Focus > Newsroom

and then it gets Keenanesquely foggy, since Menas expert adviser on Algeria/Sahel is none other Keenan himself.
e.g. - The DRS pulled the French into this to make them look bad??

Algeria is in charge of the southern desert by controlling water and fuel supply (ancient desert strategy, I reckon).
Applied to Mali that would mean taking control of Araouane - Tessalit - Aguelhoc - Kidal (there may be a few more reliable waterholes) and not worrying too much about the rest of the territory - correct?

[Richard Washington]

Originally Posted by priffe

and then it gets Keenanesquely foggy, since Menas expert adviser on Algeria/Sahel is none other Keenan himself.

That's really funny. We can spot Keenan even when he's invisible......
Time for Keenan to retire.

[Chris Scott]

Menas Associates on AQIM means Jeremy Keenan, who for all his area expertise is slightly unhinged on these issues. It’s all AQIM = DRS = CIA with that guy.
[from TMND]

A relief to see they are no more persuaded by JK than JK Rowling's yarns. Your average newspaper hack is alas less well informed and therefore more credulous.


TMND says: “Russian machines” were used, which would suggest they were Algerian) from southern Algerian positions (likely from Bechar, Tindouf or Tamanrasset...

As we know there are big Russian machines at BB Moktar, surely in range of Tessalit and Kidal.

reliable waterholes [in Mali]...

I believe there are many many more out there (like Timetrine where the Areva people are said to be)
The ones listed are merely along strategic and well-known caravan or trade routes which therefor support settlements.

Ch

[priffe]

You are right, but Keenan's presence and the influence of his conspiracy theories is so prevalent it isn't really funny. MBM and Abou Zeid are both DRS agents, you know.
You'll find loads of Keenaniana here https://www.menas.co.uk/sahara_focus/home.aspx
His four decades of experience have given him outstanding knowledge and he must be very well connected, one would think. But when it comes to facts, he seems to be as dependent on the websites you and I and everyone can read for themselves, as in this article about a recent murder.
I think over the last decade or so he has lost the grip over his presumed area of expertise.

[Chris Scott]

I think over the last decade or so he has lost the grip over his presumed area of expertise.

Before the last decade his expertise was Ahaggar Tuareg courting rituals circa 1965.
Till 99 He had not been in the desert since then but was an ordinary academic, as he admitted himself. Then he became a born-again Saharan, and JK would know well what born agains can be like.

As mentioned in my PM, priffe, you may have been influenced by JK's energetically promulgated agendas which only took form less than a decade ago.
It's an easy mistake to make but just because he chooses to shout louder and further does not make him knowledgeable, merely someone who craves attention and to be taken seriously, as that book review quote I sent you suggested:

....But to see it, you have to look past the marks of an outsider, the signature of one who likes to say, all too often, "Jeremy Keenan was here."
time.com/time/pacific

I say all this because the suggestion of his regional expertise ought not go unchallenged. Level headed TMND see though him, as does anyone who takes an interest because most of them (us) do not get 99 by adding 2 + 2 ;-)

Time for Keenan to retire [RW]
That's the problem, he has, and has nothing better to do, IMO.

Ch

[priffe]

I am glad we can jointly challenge mr Keenan's assertions.
Here's how he is introduced by Menas:
"Our speaker, Professor Jeremy Keenan is the editor of Menas Associates' weekly Algeria Politics & Security report. He is a university professor of social anthropology whose experience in advising on strategic risk, security and the political economy of the Sahara region extends over 40 years. As the author of six books on the subject, he provides briefings for the UN and other international agencies, the US State Department, FCO, a number of EU governments and, most importantly, multinational companies."

A slight exaggeration, then.

Too bad the waterhole strategy may not be leak-proof.

[Chris Scott]

Many interesting articles at Malijet (not a new airline).

Article here about Mali must act against AQIM (dream on).

And another about Ikhalil (just opposite Bordj Moktar but in Mali). Certainly not how I remembered it a couple of years ago which shows how bad it's got there.


Death threats on the security forces and customs officials in Mali, rackets of all kinds of carriers, escorts for drug shipments, firing bursts at each nightfall ... I was so startled that I wondered if we were in an organized country.

And here about the feud between ABZ and MBM (as we heard, MBM's brother in law was killed in Timbuktu by ABZ guys - or something like that) And also how mobility for MBM's group has been restricted. So maybe something is being done.

Meanwhile, ABZ waits with his 7 human shields, knowing that as soon as he lets them go - even for free - it could be all over for him.

Ch

[Dave The Hat]

What's peoples take on this article? Will the Malian and Nigerien governments be keen to pursue the option of getting Tuaregs to oust AQIM?

D'ex-rebelles touareg attendent de combattre Aqmi au Mali - Temoust.org | Le portail du peuple touareg berbère Kel Tamasheq

[CaBRita]

News about the same topic released today in Courier International:

"La présence des terroristes islamistes d’AQMI dans le Sahara indispose de plus en plus les nomades. Ces derniers sont prêts 'a s’engager aux côtés des forces gouvernementales maliennes pour les chasser de leur territoire."

MALI • Les Touaregs s’en vont en guerre contre Al-Qaida | Courrier international

Best Regards,
CaBRita