ECOWAS reached an agreement for intervention with 'peacekeeping' troops with the Malian transitional government
Mali intervention

Abou Zeid is running out of cash, finding governing a region is not much fun
Looking for a quick deal w France to release hostages (then they will be looking for more westerners to kidnap)
Nord-Mali : Abou Zeid, l'émir d'Aqmi, est-il fauché?

There are many options on the table
Le Figaro - International : Mali : la France en pointe contre Aqmi
http://www.lefigaro.fr/medias/2012/0...61-493x371.jpg
All in French
The map gives a view of the affected area
one can only hope it will get better w the coming intervention so we can resume desert travel. :thumbup1:

More to read: NORTHERN MALI - A failure of Western policy in the SahelAndy Morgan Writes in English
the touareg leaders of Ansar Dine (French) Les hommes influents d’Ansar Dine : Qui sont-ils ? | Mali Actualités

anecodotal article that gives some impression of what it is like in parts of N Mali now:
Fighters ready for battle in north Mali | News24

"When elephants fight each other, it's the grass that suffers"

United Nations Security Council passed a resolution allowing military intervention in Mali to the north African country deprived Islamic extremists. Authorization for any military action in Mali needed a second Security Council resolution.

Hard to know how seriously to take it but further threats of retaliation right across the region issued by Ansar al Din.

Sahel states confront Mali terror threat (Magharebia.com)

Many-times-dead Moktar Belmoktar is said to be leaving AQIM in order to create a movement spanning the entire Sahara.
MBM's associate says: "It's true. It's so that we can better operate in the field that we have left this group which is tied to the Maghreb."
Mali al-Qaeda leader quits AQIM | News24

The confusing thing about this report is that MBM effectively left the Maghreb franchise of AQIM long ago - even before the 2003 kidnappings (though AQIM was called something else then). That is why, I thought, he headed into the desert in the first place. The worrying thing about the report is that MBM, apart from having more lives than a cat, is normally quite successful at what he puts his mind to. The prospect of a trans-Saharan movement isn't that much of a stretch when you consider that between Somalia and Mauri there are not many missing pieces for MBM to put in place. Northern Chad might be one of them. One upside of this news could be that the business of running a country doesn't appeal to BMB lifestyle. The downside is that we could bump into MBM and his mates anywhere in the Sahara if he sees this through.

Al Qaeda 3.0
 

A CIA view
Al Qaeda 3.0: Terrorism’s Emergent New Power Bases - The Daily Beast

There may be no other factor that will impact African travel more than the ongoing expansion of salafism. The outcome in northern Mali is important.

Btw, I just heard yesterday that a rascal in Tam named Rasta who offered his services to me as a guide in 2009 is in jail for attempting to kidnap tourists. :eek3:

This is exactly what worries me about the guiding requirement in Algeria. You don't know who you are really dealing with and you don't know what anyone else knows about your itinerary. In one of the trips I did in the south in Algeira with complusory guides, we got stuck with a bloke who made it plain he didn't like tourists and didn't think they should be in the Sahara. It made for a worrying few weeks - especially when he went off at night time in his car when we were in the middle of the desert. There were times when I expected the worst.

Africa needs funds for military intervention in Mali. "It does not peaceful operation. This operation will be war.", said in UN Council.

The African Union has asked the UN to fund military action in Mali, after Ban Ki-Moon supported the mission, but without funding. To operations against Islamic militants will not be there for at least a year.

After Malian premier Cheick Modibo Diarra was at home arrested by soldiers former head military coup Amadou Sanogo, is today resigned. Withdrawal is messages in a statement for national TV, considerations, however, did not adduce, reported the French Press Agency AFP.

Now we'll see if it will act resulted resolute military action in the occupied areas under the control of AQIM. In the following days could be very dangerous in Bamako and surrounding areas.

United Nations Security Council approved a resolution authorizing the African countries for military intervention in northern Mali. UN Security Council Resolution established a mission to support Mali (AFISMA). For now, they do not yet know how many units will have a mission, nor which countries will contribute its soldiers. Most likely, it will be from West Africa (ECOWAS) to establish such a mission already calling in the past. Mission was also supported by the African Union. According to the UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Herve Ladsous, should lead to military intervention in September or October 2013.

Soldiers believed to be from the French army's special operations forces destroyed an arms depot in northern Mali in a secret operation carried out on December 13th, El Khabar reported.
The overnight operation targeted hidden anti-aircraft missiles and ended with the destruction of an arms depot 20km east of the Amashash military base [near Tessalit], where unidentified military aircraft and reconnaissance planes were seen flying, according to the Algerian daily.
"The military site, which belonged to the Malian army in the past, was fully destroyed by an unknown armed group wearing military uniforms," El Khabar added. "The guards who were defending the arms depot were killed.

more:
Maghreb countries boost border security (Magharebia.com)

With Sanogo resisting intervention and the Malian army more incompetent than ever, and an Ecowas intervention put off until September 2013, I believe we will see a lot of these undercover operations from Burkina or Mauri. Inaction is not an alternative.

A Frenchman was kidnapped the other day in northern Nigeria. Thatnin spite of being in a heavily guarded compound. It ewas attacked by over thirty armed men.

Some info on current state of affairs from Mali/Bamako from French Foreign Legion (current/former?) based in Bamako working in "security".

scroll down to poster "MAIM" to find it:

Mali & Sahel - the French are back!!

The Government of Mali has declared an emergency in the central part of the country with the help of French army and ECOWAS carried out successfully counter offensive, which prevented the progression of Islamists against the south of the country.

The Malian army has confirmed that took control in Kona from the Islamists. Army representatives have confirmed that the Islamists halt the advance to the south.

France, which has supported the military intervention Malian government against the Islamists, the third day of continued air strikes in the country. Transmission began on Friday, when the Malian army with the help of French combat helicopters and fighters drove out Islamists from Konna strategic position in the center of the country. On Sunday, the French aircraft attacked the city of Gao in eastern Mali, and thus encroach further into the territory of Islamists.

Reuters

France 24 reporting Diabaly attacked by jihadists - about 400km up the Segou, Nioro road from Bamako. Other sources are reporting French jets bombing in this area too.

Al Jazeera (English) TV are running some detailed reporting and commentary on this.
Various commentators have speculated on the current policy of the French Government, including their "exit strategy" from Mali.

A major shift when the US is pulling out of Afghanistan while the French are moving into Mali.

Avoiding the Wars That Never End | Stratfor

Three terrorists reported killed and two wounded in Algerian Tadrart
Trois terroristes abattus et deux autres blessés à Djanet - International - El Watan

More kidnapping in Algeria!
People killed and up to eight foreigners being kidnapped from an oil installation In Aménas, on the border to Libya.
Attaque terroriste à In Aménas : Trois ressortissants étrangers enlevés à Tiguentourine - Actualité - El Watan

:(

Foreigners 'abducted' by Islamist militants in Algeria
 

BBC:
Foreigners 'abducted' by Islamist militants in Algeria
Algerian security officials say one person has been killed and several foreigners abducted in an attack on a gas facility at In Amenas in the east of the country.

BBC News - Foreigners 'abducted' by Islamist militants in Algeria

More news:

The French army is ready to land a major clash with rebels in Mali. Soldiers were eliminated today from the capital city of Bamako towards Diabaly, which lies approximately 350 kilometers north and taken in Monday by the Islamists, reported BBC.

The convoy, which is designed to Diabaly is about 30 armored vehicles. The French army is attacking rebel positions till now from the air. Land beginning operations was confirmed by the Chief of the French army, Admiral Edouard Guillaud. "In the coming hours - but I can not say whether this will be only one hour or 72 hours - we will deal with them directly," he told for radio Europe 1st.

French travellers here in Rabat, heading for Mali/B-Faso are VERY nervous. French motorhomes seem to trundling around in big convoys.

For details on the In Amenas event in January 2013, please see this thread:
http://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hub...r-amenas-68346

It is still early days in the unpicking of events at In Amenas but already this must go down as the most extreme episode in the Sahara for many years, if not decades. There will surely be severe restrictions on access to the Algerian desert and for a long time.


Given the change in tactics from AQIM, it is difficult to know exactly what to expect next from the perspective of Saharan travel. If AQIM thought they would be able to take dozens of hostages away and blow up the gas plant, then they seriously misjudged things. Recall, though, that Algeria appeared to allow AQIM (as they were later called) to transit the Algerian desert to N.Mali with some 17 hostages back in 2003. If they were expecting the same again in In Amenas, then it seems unlikely they would bring along those explosive belts and gear up for the protracted sit-in. If AQIM planned on a one-way ticket, then they would have known ahead of time that they would lose all hands. The question then becomes who can bear the greatest losses: oil companies/Algerian state Vs AQIM. AQIM I would have thought given the perspective of martyrdom. This, along with the fact that AQIM cannot realistically take on France in a conventional war, means that we should expect more attacks along these lines. In Anemas will force France to firm up its resolve in Mali. French action in Mali will force AQIM to respond with more such episodes. Its a horrible feedback loop.



Why In Amenas? A simple answer is that it is 25 km from the Libyan border, which was their planned entrance and exit(?) point. 'Liberated' Libya is sufficiently lawless not to be able to respond. But some reports say AQIM arrived into In Amenas from N Mali and did not transit Libya. It is far shorter that way (N.Mali - Algeria direct). NATO would prefer us to think Libya played no part - it makes them all feel better about the mess that has been made in Libya. One thing that can't be denied, the weaponry derived from the Libyan mess. Probably some of the recruits too.

Considering what David Cameron has just told the MPs:

"We will contribute British intelligence and counter-terrorism assets to an international effort to find and dismantle the network that planned and ordered the brutal assault at In Amenas. We must work right across the region"

It is not just Algeria but almost all of the Sahara that will soon be too dangerous for bona fide travellers carrying a British passport.

And to expand Roman's thinking further, its not just British. What have the Japanese and Romanians done to AQIM to deserve the treatment they got at In Amenas?

Apart from the tragic loss of lives in Algeria, I suspect it is going to affect us in many different ways across the whole region.

We have grown used to the friendly disposition of local people who saw tourists in the Sahara as a source of income, worth protecting as a kind of business asset. Now, any tourist can be suspected of being an "intelligence and counter-terrorism asset" of this or another government. Attitudes will harden, movement wil be severely restricted, and a chance meeting with smugglers' scouting patol (we once had near the Libyan border) is now less likely to end up with a friendly pat on the shoulder.

I am slightly less pessimistic since Aqim is now for the first time being attacked on a great scale, the way it should have been done years ago, pre-Libya, when the problem would have been more manageable.
The events at In Amenas only serve to deepen the resolve and also hushing all potential critics of the French operation in Mali.
It took the rebellion AND the coup d'etat to make this possible.

Most reports from Mali say that jihadists are on the run and that the population are positive to the French, the Tricolor flying next to the Malian flag in many villages - a most surprising development, unthinkable not long ago. Refugees already start to return.

French troops stop al-Qaeda group in its tracks in Mali - Telegraph

There is little or no local support for the bearded guys, even less after their heavy-handed attempt at laying strict sharia on the population - they should by now be fiercely against those pakistani imams the saudis have been sending their way for many years. And recruiting should become harder.
I hope Qatar is meeting high-level resistance in their scheme to support the jihadis.
With a large but limited number of vehicles, arms and martyrs available, how long will Aqim last?
Why did the beards leave TB2 and Gao? Many said the problem with this war would be fighting in city streets and the unavoidable collateral damage, but Mujao and Aqim seem to have solved that problem by leaving voluntarily.

We are all targets now. I am often thinking of the Swedish biker who was just spending a day or two in TB2 fourteen months ago on his way across the continent. It could happen to anyone.

I agree with pf. The situation Roman describes largely existed (or could have) long before In Amenas. And encounters with smugglers are always initially to be feared - usually by both parties.

It may take a while but at least the long awaited pushback has begun - given extra impetus by In Amenas. The problem of course will be keep them out of north Mali - a tall order. In the old days I imagine the Kel Ifoghas quietly got on business via Ikhalil. Now it's become rather a lucrative route/region.

I was wondering that too - seems as suicidal as In Amenas. Did they did not anticipate the French response? The old govt is long gone. (This article makes the former links clear).

I have seen no mention of the ~10 hostages still up there. That could be their final gambit I suppose, when the time comes.

Added a few days later:
http://www.france24.com/en/20130201-...n-human-shield

Ch

I think the analysis above by Chris Scott and Priffe makes a great deal of sense. It is better than a lot of the stuff you read in the media at the moment which is, I suppose, quite natural as last week those guys were reporting on and writing about Iraq or Syria and have had a week to learn what we have been following here, in the Sahara, for years.

I do have one point of departure which stems from Priffe's points:
"The events at In Amenas only serve to deepen the resolve".
This I agree with.
and
"There is little or no local support for the bearded guys, even less after their heavy-handed attempt at laying strict sharia on the population - they should by now be fiercely against those pakistani imams the saudis have been sending their way for many years. And recruiting should become harder. "
Which I also agree with.
and
"Aqim is now for the first time being attacked on a great scale"
which again I agree with.


All these observations make it clear that AQIM is under stress for the first time. It is also for the first time that they have done something on the scale of the events in In Amenas. In my mind the two (AQIM under stress and radical response in attacking In Amenas) are connected. It is as though AQIM know their options are narrowed with airstrikes now aimed at them. They can't fly their own airforce in response. But they can up the stakes and do things like the In Amenas attack. So there is cause and effect going on here. While AQIM is being dealt blows for the first time since 2003, they are also lashing back in a more desperate way. We can expect an escalation as part of this process. In that sense I think Roman's pessimism might have a case. If so, let's hope it is very much time-bound.

I heard yesterday that they banned music. In Mali.........

Someone else is the optimist, too...
Al-Qaeda's grip on Mali will be broken, thanks to the errors of terrorists – Telegraph Blogs
Hubris precedes a fall

Here's a post using common reason why Jeremy Keenan and others believing the algerian secret service are running everything are wrong https://vivalalgerie.wordpress.com/2...he-drs-really/

Drones?
 

Perhaps this article provides valuable additional considerations toward understanding another point of view...

[url=http://www.prisonplanet.com/here-come-the-drones-or-the-true-reason-for-the-mali-incursion.html]Prison Planet.com

xfiltrate

Can you please add a [/url] tag at the end of your post to make our lives a bit easier...

As usual the moor has done a good synthesis of Jihadi opinion on Mali as appearing on internet forums. Its a good read.

There is an emerging narrative that depicts France and her allies as Crusaders

There is a call out to support the Mali elements with parallels to Afghanistan

And a call out to expand the conflict

Early Perspectives on the Mali Crisis from a Jihadist Forum (II) | The Moor Next Door

Nope xfiltrate muy amable, no value added from that surly misinformed conspiracy thinker, quote:
"Next we need a little dose of the perpetual “Al-Qaeda” bogeyman in Central, Eastern, and finally South Africa and the US will have military control over a continent that China is rapidly doing all it can to colonize from the ground up"

US is using satellites rather than drones to monitor the chinese

They've had problems with their base in Ouagadougou but the planned move to Agadez (of all places) is a surprise. The stated mission is to monitor jihadist networks in the Sahara with unarmed drones.
Plans for US Surveillance Drones in Niger | Sahel Blog
U.S. expands secret intelligence operations in Africa - Washington Post
some reactions
Le Pentagone compte stationner des drones au Niger

I think the jihadists are in for their biggest setback so far, and all of WA is now thoroughly against wahhabism, and the Qatari-Saudi influence. In Bamako, people are taking it a bit too far, forcibly cutting the beards off islamists.

Closing off the borders
Mali : l'impossible contrôle des frontières | Jeuneafrique.com

http://www.jeuneafrique.com/photos/0...C%80reMali.png

Algeria patrolling borders with Mali and Libya with 17 batallions, 10000 men. They say it would take "two NATOs" to really keep the borders safe. Just the other day they surprisingly signed a security contract with the Brits.

Mauretania with the longest (2240 kms) Mali border have established 48 guarded posts.
Libya closed its borders with Algeria-Niger-Chad-Sudan December 16.
Debdeb, entre menace terroriste et contrebande - Actualité - El Watan
The huge increase in military control should make smuggling along the old routes more difficult than ever?

With 2000 seasoned Chadian soldiers on the ground, 400 from Niger and 4400 French the jihadists should be facing some resistance. Now retreated into the Tigharghar, what can they do? MNLA touareg fighters may make the final move against them, if they can somehow strike a deal with Paris/Bamako.
I can't find an good assessment of what resources the jihadists have. I believe every experienced bomb maker and every seasoned field commander they loose, they are really hurting. This besides the fact that they would have a terrible time trying just get along with themselves, when their movements are restricted.
Guerre au Mali : le Tchad et le Niger veulent couper toute retraite aux jihadistes | Jeuneafrique.com - le premier site d'information et d'actualit� sur l'Afrique

Not meant to be conspiratorial
 

Thanks Priffe, it was the New York Times article referenced in the last link I sent.:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/29/us...rica.html?_r=0

Not the conspiracy, that I did not even notice until you pointed it out.

Could you please explain the difference between the "jihadists" also called Al-Qaeda being fought in Mali and Al-Qaeda, also called "jihadists" being supported in Syria?

At this time is there an advisable land route from Morocco to Tanzania ?

xfiltrate

Oh no! Don't go there!
Various media and pundits in the UK are asking this question, including a certain MP in the UK parliament just a couple of days ago, but no one from the UK government has produced an answer so far; not even the Prime Minister at his weekly question time in Parliament.

It is complicated though. :innocent:
And I mean that; it is really complicated.

When facing a greater common enemy, your enemy may (temporarily) become your friend. Shifting alliances; the way it has always been and always will be - no mystery there, really.
But that discussion would take us off topic.
xfiltrate, no good short land route to Tanzania now.

Now I hear from the grapevine Aqim and MBM are moving operations to Libya - the next large unstable territory where they can move around and entrench themselves. Are they giving up on Mali already?
We will see.

As you say, shifting alliances have occurred throughout recorded history.
But in this case, the point refers to the support, by "western" nations, of what amounts to more or less the same group at one and the same time in geographical locations which are not all that far separated; there lies a problem for governments and their spokespersons.
And the questions on those lines continue on the basis of "one mans terrorist is another mans freedom-fighter".

I don' see how it goes off topic either; the thread might be better labelled as being related to the Sahel rather than the Maghreb, if only because lots of these terrorist/freefighter groups do not work within the national borders of any single country - a bit like those pesky lapplanders who wander around and across national borders in the north :innocent:

Anyway, what is the Swedish government's policy right now about the Sahel?
(France is reported to be calling for a UN peacekeeping force for Mali, which would be their means of dis-engaging from their ex-colony).

Might as well say it:
Syria; the aim is regime change and the downfall of a dictator.
Mali; the aim is to prop up a military-based government that is in place as the result of a recent coup against an elected government.

Discussion??

No. This is the Sahara Travel Forum and the thread: 'AQIM activity in the Sahara in relation to travel'. Following complaints we were warned by admin to keep to that topic and not discuss politics here, far less international politics, at risk of having STF broken up.

Who mentioned the Maghreb? The thread is correctly titled.

Many like to express their opinions on global events, but STF is not the place to do it. It is a resource for independent travel in the Sahara - what little of that can be done these days - and is recognised as one of the best around. Within reason, the current activities in north Mali - and in particular their long term outcome - all relate to that.

Thanks for everyone's co-operation.

Ch

Chris, I was discussing as per post number 1 from nearly 3 years ago.
The nuances to which you refer are not made plain in here, nor do they make much sense to me:-
There is much discussion in here about military matters which are totally part of the politics and the political aims of governments.
To not consider the politics of a region in regard to travelling there is akin to driving with ones eyes wide shut IMO.

It's just a view of mine, and matters not a jot in the end.

French president Francois Hollande in the society of temporary Malian President Dioncoundoe Traore experienced enthusiastic welcome when visiting the historic town Timbuktu liberated by French forces from the hands of Islamic militants, report Reuters.

Traveling in areas of Sahel should be a bit safer. For my point of view, crossing Mauritania on coastal highway seams safe now. When ECOWAS peace-keeping forces will join French forces, the situation should calms down.

There is indeed much discussion of Saharan politics and the military in this thread. Almost all of it pre-dates the time when the Hubb owners made it clear that the postings were becoming too political. As Chris has pointed out, several modifications were made at that time in an effort to fix things, including the renaming of this thread and the split of Morocco from the Sahara forum so that those interested in Morocco did not have to see this thread at the top of the board on many days. Those changes were made so that information on AQIM could still be posted as Chris and I argued it was the leading issue with regards to safe travel in the Sahara. It still is. There is always going to be something of a blurred line between a posting that is purely political and one that relates to travel in the Sahara given what AQIM have done in the Sahara since 2003. The test of whether a post is reasonable/helpful/acceptable or not includes whether:
a) the information posted can be applied in some practical way to travel advice and also whether the post attempts to do that.
b) the focus is on the Sahara
c) it is calmly and objectively written
Of these (a) is the key.

I hope this helps and I hope that those posting will keep things on track because of the importance of knowing what AQIM are up to and second-guessing what they might do in the near future.

Hubb owners may also have noted that this thread is one of the most read on the entire forum.
So it should hopefully have some merit. :)

The French are now bombing the Ifoghas mountains heavily, using thirty aircraft targeting "logistics bases" (fuel and arms) and "training camps". Hostages are said to be alive (but in a terrible situation).
French planes pound Islamist camps in north Mali desert | Reuters

"Never has a foreign intervention in Africa been as popular as the French one in Mali" said Niger president Issofou.
Those Frenchies if they do it right this time could really boost their international image.
If they manage to broker a working and lasting agreement between touaregs and Bamako, with autonomy for the north. They are in a unique position to twist arms right now.
If they help rebuild the tombs of islamic saints the beards wilfully destroyed in Timbuktu - after the Arab League and in particular Egypt would not lend Mali a helping hand or give their support for intervention. What a setback for islamism that would be.

Issofou: "The object of this war should be not just to liberate Mali but to free the whole Sahel from this menace, which threatens not just us but also Europe, France and the world."
That would be the best news for WA travellers for years.

When did the French EVER successfully intervene in a conflict on foreign territory before? Kolwezi?

French warplanes attacked this night north of Mali, in order to do their three-week offensive finally subdued the last rebel stronghold in Kidal. Thirty aircraft were targeting Islamists training and communication centers around Tessalit - mountainous area near the Algerian border, reports the BBC.

So final push off terrorists from Mali is on the way. Their next destination should be in north Niger or south Libya. Allies should run Aqim in Maghreb till it's end. Does anyone know Belmoktar hostages destiny?

Upss: Priffe already wrote something about that.

"When did the French EVER successfully intervene in a conflict on foreign territory before?"

Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast)::
"
La Force Licorne en 2011[modifier]

Au mois de février 2011, la Force Licorne a été renforcée et passe à 1 100 hommes[5].
En avril 2011 suite à la résolution 1975 du Conseil de Sécurité de l'ONU, la Force Licorne est redéployée dans le but de protéger les ressortissants français, d'apporter un soutien à l'ONUCI[6] et de détruire les armes lourdes des forces pro-Gbagbo utilisées contre des civils. Depuis le 2 avril, des éléments de commandement et trois compagnies, issues du 2e REP, du RMT et du 3e RPIMa, ont été projetées afin de renforcer les effectifs de la Force Licorne. Ils sont alors de 1 650 militaires français à Abidjan[7].
Le 11 avril 2011, les FRCI avec l'appui indirect de l'ONUCI et de la Force Licorne, ont arrêté Laurent Gbagbo[8].
Fin 2011, suite à la résolution de cette crise, les effectifs sont en baisse et passent à 450 personnels[9] puis à 300 début 2013."


See Opération Licorne - Wikipédia in French.

"That would be the best news for WA travellers for years."

Sorry, I'm French , what is WA?

West Africa

Thanks Roger, I've learned something today!

Ok Ivory Coast was not an outright disaster but tainted as 'neocolonialism' and did see some hiccups like French troops shooting unarmed protesters in the streets 2004.
Opération Licorne | Slate Afrique

WA = l'Afrique de l'Ouest

In Mali, the French are on their own on the ground as a Western power. They have taken great care to avoid collateral damage. Interestingly they are only using Special Forces for combat, together with Malian soldiers.
A model for the future?

"Ok Ivory Coast was not an outright disaster but tainted as 'neocolonialism'"
I don't agree with this opinion, the French intervention was supported by ONU ans his aim was to enforce the election of Ouatara recognized by international community .
RR

That is something I try to do EVERY day!! :-)

..... although I don't think I will EVER understand why Gambian military checkpoints are sometimes 100metres apart, asking the same questions! :rolleyes2:

If anyone would like a good introduction to the complexities of the Saharan situation regarding AQIM and kidnapping of tourists in recent years, or a condensed (all things being relative!) take on many of the topics we have been discussing over the years in this and Chris Scott's old kidnapping thread, they could do worse than to read

Mali | Andy Morgan Writes

All the usual suspects rounded up and poked at as it were.

Thankyou very much for that link - invaluable and highly detailed.

A lot is going on in Mali now
some of it outrageous
some of it lacking credible sources
some of it probably pure desinformation

Exclusif maliweb: Gao – Suspicion de complicité pour la libération de deux narco trafiquants - maliweb.net
Mali Deux avions qataris à la rescousse des djihadistes au Mali - Malijet
etc follow the links
BBC News - Why the Sahara is not the 'new Afghanistan'
BBC News - Mali conflict: French ransom cash 'funded militants'

This is a comment on the BBC article BBC News - Mali conflict: French ransom cash 'funded militants' that Priffe posted above.

The aricle is of interest because if one is kidnapped in the Sahara then one's fate is determined more by the governments at home than by AQIM. As we know, there is a greater probability of being freed if one is Italian or Spanish, for example, than British or French. The attitude of one's own government to the ransom demands is therefore key to controlling how things are likely to turn out.

The article has, as its leader "A former US ambassador to Mali has told the BBC that France paid ransom money to free hostages and the funds ended up bolstering Islamist groups it is now fighting."

This thread on the Hubb is reaching 68 000 views. Let's be conservative and say that 1000 unique people have read the thread. I would wager that at least 90% of those people will know that European governments pay ransom money. The only reason this is news is because the former US ambassador has said it. Unfortunately the article stops short of any interesting analysis. This is fairly normal for the mainstream media like BBC.

The interesting detail about the article is that the French are reported as having paid $17m to free 3 hostages. There are still several French citizens from the Arlit kidnapping still being held - four I think. Their names are Daniel Larribe, Thierry Dole, Marc Feret and Pierre Legrand. So why has the French government not paid for these 4? Elsewhere it is reported that the ransom for these 4 is 90m euros. The difference between $17m and 90m euros is not large to a government looking to end an awful chapter such as this. So why not pay? One reason which applies currently is that ransom money would essentially mean arming those who are now fighting other French nationals in Mali. And the consequence is therefore that as long as French troops are in Mali, those who are held in captivity cannot be freed on AQIM's terms. The only way is by force.

24 Tchadians killed north of Kidal (unconfirmed!)
Tchad - Mali : 24 soldats du contingent tchadien tués et 11 blessés dans une embuscade au nord de Kidal - Le site Ndouné | Toute l’actualité en temps réel
Street fighting and suicide bombers in Gao
Mali: un commando islamiste attaque Gao après deux attentats suicide - Dépêches - El Watan

Above report of Chadian deaths was fake but this one isn't
Chadians attack Islamists' Mali mountain hideout | Reuters

Also of general interest GCTAT Excellence and Expertise in Terrorism Analysis
Analysis Al-Jazeera interviews AQIM hostages - GCTAT sample analysis - YouTube
US Troops On The Ground In Niger - Business Insider

Abou Zeid reported among 40 dead near Tigharghar
http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/articl...0892_3212.html

Wonder how will this affect the hostage situation.
Leaves MBM as the uncontested emir in the Sahara/Sahel.

And Algeria is to confirm his ID with DNA tests as they have five of his family in jail.But then again, how many times has El Para been killed? :)

DNA tests to confirm death of al-Qaeda chief in Algeria

Sky breaking that MBM believed killed

I think you may have meant MBM, budric, but looks like he's got it too. These Chadian soldiers have had a successful week, though at no small cost. And what of the hostages, I wonder.

If it's all true you'd hope this could be the beginning of the end of the whole 'AQIM' business out there. Just wonder what will replace it, if that happens.

Ch

Hopefully nothing and we can go back to visit like before.

https://twitter.com/search?q=%23BelMoktar&src=hash

Amazing, if true. In one week, the Tchadians put the Malian and Algerian armies to shame, and the touaregs who could not overcome their inner division and finish off the jihadists.

The Chad press service seems to be falling over itself to get the big news out while the French coolly ‘cannot yet confirm’.

I wonder whether, rather shrewdly, the French arranged it so the Chadians got to do the gritty, frontline ‘Tora Bora’ work** while letting them have the glory when it went well.
a. because the Chadians (presumably hardcore Tubu) are well up for a fight while being better trained and equipped than the Malian army (or so we’re told).
and
b. because, as these headlines of 'Chadians get ABZ/MBM' catch on, it makes it look less like the French (‘ex-colonial power/imperial western aggressor’ etc) went in there and cleaned up, even though you’d imagine they were right there ‘softening up’ the battleground from the air in advance.

So it looks more like the ideal scenario: fellow African nation sorting out an African problem.
(Let's not forget how it ended for El Para and his crew in the Tibesti in 2004.)

Ch

PS: a day later: 'This is the eighth time' – caution greets reports of Mokhtar Belmokhtar's death - Africa - World - The Independent

** Actually, from what I read a few days later, the French were as involved in the ground assault in Ametetati as the Chadians.

Another possibility is that hostages, who usually are kept close at hand, have been hurt in the campaign and the French would rather let the Chadians claim it.
From Chadian reports they have soon overrun the Tigarghar.
Then what?

I would suggest that this area is dangerous for travellers now and for a long time to come; From a French military source, some with family in the FFL in this place who report that the famous 2nd REP are doing a "full tour" of the country!

The Chadian army are by all accounts, extremely good soldiers but will steal anything and everything they can from the French army!


All the communications on the ongoing operations is strictly controlled by the French Army Staff, but it's the most detailed I've read so far. The author, Jean Guisnel, is one of the few journalists having real insight into military matters. I put up a rough English translation below :

Mali: Third French soldier killed in “fierce combats”
By Jean Guisnel
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

The French have been shocked by the resistance of the jihadists, who are waging a guerrilla war in the Adrar des Ifoghas, mountainous region in north-eastern Mali. A third French soldier from the 1er Régiment de Chasseurs Parachutistes was killed Saturday evening, the Élysée Palace said Sunday in a statement. Around 1800 hours, while he was storming with his platoon a jihadist position, this paratrooper was hit by enemy fire a weapon, said the Army Staff. During the day of Saturday, the French killed 15 jihadists destroyed three pickups and collected large stocks of ammunition. They also found numerous weapons "heavy", ie mortars and 14.5 mm machine guns.

A castle
The Adrar des Ifoghas is much better defended than what could be expected from assumed aerial and satellite observations. French soldiers have been faced with extremely well prepared positions, with pick-up mounted 14.5 mm Russian machine-guns protected - including against air strikes - by important embankments, behind which they hide. As behind the walls of a castle. As a result these positions are hard won, and the fights are "bitter," according a military source. Another amazement is that the jihadists not only to defend, but attack their assailants courageously with simple infantry weapons. An entrenched French position has been the object of an assault, easily pushed back without doubt, which left no survivor among the attackers! This overlap between fighting units prevents the French to deploy all their firepower. For this officer knowing the current conditions of the fighting, it is striking to see that the jihadists don't attempt to flee the war zone. Instead, says the military source: “We do not know if they defend anything but their sanctuary, but they fight! They vowed not to let anybody get into their place, and yet we will do it... and if they want to die for it, we will help them!”

2,000 men engaged
Two thousand men are engaged in the take of the Adrar des Ifoghas, including a battalion of 800 Chadian elite soldiers belonging to Chadian FATIM/ICAFIM (Forces Armées Tchadiennes d'Intervention au Mali / Intervention Chadian Armed Forces In Mali), commanded by the son of President Idriss Deby, and 1,200 French soldiers. These fall into two units: the 3e GTIA/JTBG (Groupement Tactique Interarmes / Joint Tactical Battle Group), formed around elements of the 1st RIMa (Régiment d'Infanterie de Marine), and the GTIA-TAP/JATBG (Groupement Tactique Interarmes-Troupes Aéroportées / Joint Airborne Tactical Battle Group) whose frame is provided by the 2nd REP. Elements of COS/SOC (Commandement des Opérations Spéciales / Special Operations Command) are also present locally, in an indeterminate number, but quite low. The command post of the ‘Brigade Serval’ is installed in Tessalit, where are also based staffs of JTBG 3, JATGB and ICAFIM. Medical teams belonging to a forward surgical unit are also in Tessalit, as well as SGAM/AMSG (Sous-Groupement Aéromobile/AirMobile Sub Group), a SGL/LSG (Sous-Groupement Logistique / Logistical Sub-Group) and a platoon of the Malian army.


A ‘Wasps' Nest’
The military intelligence services, but also all the international intelligence community, believe that the ‘boiler’ of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb is installed in the Adrar des Ifoghas. According to our information, the operations began on 18.Feb with a complete closure of an area of ​​625 sq.km in the Adrar des Ifoghas by French and Chadian elements, probably supported in the north by the Algerian army blocking the border with Mali, all pick-up seeking to leave the area being systematically hit. According to our information, very incomplete, two mighty columns, one French the other Chadian, penetrated by different routes into the massif, these two elements benefiting from support provided by French aircrafts.

In contact with the ground troops, the Air Force aircrafts and Tiger helicopters of the Army Light Aviation provide CAS (Close Air Support), while ‘strategic’ strikes are delivered in depth by jet fighters out of reach of ground forces. On the evening of Saturday, 2.Mar the French and Chadian troops, progressing on different ways made their junction in an area considered the heart of the implementation of AQIM. “We are in the wasps' nest, where we wanted to go. Striking the terrorists at heart, this is a tremendous blow against the enemies of France”, said a source close to Paris intelligence.

Operation Serval - video from the French Armee de Terre:
Opération Serval, prise à parti dans la région de l'Adrar le 26 février 2013 - YouTube

Thank you Fastship
the French Forces own Youtube channel
Armée Française (chaîne officielle) - YouTube

there are no journalists allowed in the area
But there is a Chadian journalist reporting
https://twitter.com/nassergarboa
Now the Chadians are backstepping on MBM's death
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/04/wo...=tw-share&_r=0
and an Aqmi member says MBM is near Gao

Confusion still
SCOOP. Guerre au Mali : La photo de Mokhtar Belmokhtar, mort ! | Allain Jules
Abou Zeid. La photo qui confirme sa mort - ParisMatch.com
as Idriss Deby Tchadian president confirms the death of both emirs
Tchad : Idriss Déby Itno confirme la mort d'Abou Zeid et de Mokhtar Belmokhtar
Pic taken by Nasser Garboa
but is it MBM or Abou Zeid?
Mali : Abou Zeid et Mokhtar Belmokhtar, une photo pour deux cadavres?

I fear MBM is still around.

Ametetai
 

I think they are getting their ABZ and MBM mixed up, though the grizzly Paris Match images look more like ABZ to me. Unlikely the two would be at the same place at the same time (assuming we're talking about one battle).

Fyi, I located this 'Ametetai valley' that many reports mention as the location of the battle. According to IGN the well is around here. There are more images here where for once in the Sahara, Bing (link above) is far superior than Google and posibly newer.

Video here from Chad TV. thanks for passing it on
Detailed report of the events (Le Monde)

Ch

Now Iyad is said to have been killed in Tigharghar
http://www.malijet.com/en-direct-du-...hali-mort.html

also
LA VOIE DE L’EPEE: La victoire du Tigharghâr

The hostage negotiator's perspective
Sahel: Moustapha Limam Chafi, les secrets d'un sauveur d'otages - L'EXPRESS
on the differences between MBM and AZ

Also: the current French Foreign Office travel advisory

"The number of restrictions have exploded in recent years". Benin president is pissed.
Terrorisme : l'Afrique dans le rouge

Les liasions dangereuses
 

Interesting on Libya and MBMs connections. He no longer needs Aqmi or Droukdel. Or Mali.
Terrorisme : la poudrière libyenne
hope you read French - if you use google chrome, you get automatic translation

http://www.jeuneafrique.com/photos/0...47_info_OK.jpg
Thus the urgenzy of the US drone base in Agadez.

Report and video here from an Ifoghas front line a couple of days ago - with talk of holding back [air strikes] in case hostages are close.

Its ominously quiet news-wise from Mali for the moment. I wonder if there are hostage exchange discussions going on.....

or if AQIM have cleared off to SW Libya and NE Niger.

The media are quiet, however serious combat is continuing, now in the Hàdes valley. MBM may have moved in time to Libya.

http://www.opex360.com/2013/03/19/ma...region-de-gao/

All best, Yves

I think any discussion opportunities dried up once 4000 Frenchies touched down and headed north. Plus sounds like these guys would sooner die fighting. You do wonder if the fate of the hostages might be secondary to the greater plan. Not unlike In Amenas.
Ametetai was too good publicity to miss; now they are back on to the slog.

Another French soldier died on Sunday and this recent report claims AQIM are inviting like-minded youths from the Maghreb to come and join the cause. And here it's reported that Ag Ghali himself is leading the fight in the Ifoghas.

Fyi, ‘Djebok’ mentioned in the article is only 40km east of Gao.
Next to In Kak and near Imenas (also mentioned), bottom left of this map or see below. Close to Keraten too, where there was a battle a few days after Ametetai.

‘Hades’ could be the next valley below Ametetai. Lots of well used tracks link the two valleys.

A new theme in reporting on Aqim - backlash and collapse.
Desperate AQIM breaks silence on Mali | Magharebia

"The front of the Islamic Maghreb today is in direst need of the support of the sons of Tunisia, Morocco, Libya, and Mauritania, to thwart the attack of Crusader France and defeat its agents in the region, and empower the Islamic project and Jihad,"

Mauritania arrests Mali terrorists | Magharebia

Algerian imams unite against salafism | Magharebia
"Over the coming months, we plan to draw up a map of salafism in Algeria, with the list of imams who are thought to sponsor movements that are foreign to our country. It is imperative for the state to replace them," he said.
Most of the work must be done in Algiers "where the vast majority of mosques are hostages to the salafist imams", he said."

Al-Qaeda in Maghreb near collapse | Magharebia
"But all the fighters who flocked to the Sahel desert and northern Mali are now being picked off by airstrikes and ground troops. Replacing them will not be easy.
"The jihadists aren't numerous enough to send reinforcements to all the fronts in the world," Ould Abah says.
"Syria, Yemen and Somalia already distract their efforts," he adds.
The true abilities and size of al-Qaeda had been exaggerated, observers note. The organisation is now facing a major military offensive from which there is no escape."...
"The inability to draw recruits may prove AQIM's undoing, according to Sy Djibril of SOS Pairs Educateurs Association, a Nouakchott youth development agency.
From witnessing religious revival associations spread jihadist ideology in the 1980's to working today with at-risk youth, he has a unique perspective on the recruitment issue.
"The loss of al-Qaeda's prominent leaders means that the group will lose the networks of relations in the desert, experience, money and ability to convince young people," he says.
There will also be disputes among the likely successors, Djibril adds.
"The backbone of terrorist groups has been broken," he concludes.

Also: UNESCO getting involved in protecting Mali heritage at TB2, Gao, Djenne, Bandiagara
http://magharebia.com/en_GB/articles.../11/feature-03

In addition to the two suicide bombings in Gao last month (Feb 2013) there was an additional suicide bombing in Timbuktu on 20 March. More details here:
BBC News - Mali soldier killed in Timbuktu suicide bomb attack

Suicide bombing is a new peril in the region and one that is hard to be strategic about from the perspective of a traveller passing through.

Hostages the test
 

There have been several claims by the French politicians that northern Mali will be clear of AQIM soon, even in the next few weeks (so sometime in April 2013). There has also been talk about French troop withdrawl and associated concern from people living in northern Mali that this withdrawl is premature.

Whether the French have truly driven AQIM and affiliated insurgents out of Northern Mali can be measured by one simple test - namely the status of the hostages. If the hostages are still in Mali and are still being held, then we can be clear that the job started by the French is not complete.

If the hostages are moved to SW Libya/NE Niger, then a new chapter in the Sahara starts.

The present eerie silence in reporting from Kidal region is indeed ominous.
According to insiders, the hostages are still in northern Mali but not in Tigarghar.

Verdon was reportedly killed in Ngargaren (with various spellings), is this in Tigharghar, or adjacent to? Anyone knows?

Here's an interesting must-read report on the French hostage negotiations that Maurice Freund promised to comment on later
Grands Reporters - L’histoire secrète des otages.
According to Freund it is all true except for the part about Guy Delbrel, vice president of Freund's airline Point-Afrique.
The touareg intermediary mentioned is Rhissa Ag Boula.


When, and if, the French are done remains the question of the status of northern Mali, and how to reconcile the different ethnical groups. Add to that the general decay of the Malian state. Fixing this is a taller order than dislodging a couple thousand jihadists.

Abu Zeid
 

France24 reporting Abou Zeid confirmed killed.

France confirms death of top al Qaeda leader Abou Zeid - MALI - FRANCE 24

Also of general interest

http://www.france24.com/en/20130322-...ty-amputations

Abou Zeid confirmed dead
 

Abou Zeid is history.

"The president of the French Republic confirms with certainty the death of Abdelhamid Abou Zeid after an offensive by the French army in the Adrar des Ifoghas (mountains) in the North of Mali, at the end of February," the Elysee presidential palace said.

DNA tests were the basis apparently.

The fate of Mokhtar Belmokhtar has yet to be confirmed.

BBC News - France confirms death of Islamist commander Abou Zeid

I recommend GCTAT's analysis of Aqim and related stuff
Celui qui parlait au désert: Abdulhamid Abou Zaid, nécrologie du silence
http://www.gctat.org/images/site/Inf...bm_etude_2.png
Algerian Djamel Okacha named new leader after AZ (unconfirmed)
Djamel Okacha named as new leader of AQIM | The News Tribe

French troops have finished combing through Tigharghar
now demining. What next?
Mali : dans le massif de Tigharghar, les militaires français ratissent les caches d'Aqmi - Mali/Reportage - RFI

Hello,

here two uncensored videos from Mali:

Mali | VICE Deutschland

and

Mali | VICE Deutschland

Regards

Ulrich

Very interesting, if a little grisly!

This was from March detailing last sightings of MBM near the Algerian border....anything since then?

Algerian Terrorist Leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar Still Alive, Algerian Newspaper reports - Matthew Aid

Also any news on Iyad Ghali?

The remnants of AQMI, some 400 fighters, are setting up rear bases in SW Libya, Fezzan region, where they are trying to 'regain health'. They appear to enjoy protection by Ubari tuaregs.

Les islamistes battus au Mali se refont une santé en Libye : Lignes de défense

More from southern Libya, several links
http://libyastories.com/tag/abdul-wahab-hassain-qaid/
The region is run by Abdul Wahab Hassan Qaid, brother of Bin Laden's second-in-command Abou Yahya Al-Libi, with support from Qatar.

and so a new chapter starts for the Sahara.

SW Libya is where to look for the hostages now.
SW Libya is also uncomfortably close to Djanet and SE Algeria and takes in N Niger of course. Its within range of Chad as well. On the other hand the pressure will lift in Mauri.

AQIM work in predictable ways.

MUJAO attacks Agadez and Arlit
 

BBC News - Niger suicide bombers target Areva mine and barracks

so I don't suppose that trans-Sahara route will feel safe any time soon.

As for that Libya article, like some of the commenters below it, I thought it was rather vague.

Targeted Areva in Arlit and military barracks in Agadez. Claimed by MUJWA/MUJAO.
24 killed, 14 Areva employees wounded. Hostage situation in Agadez.

Bombings in Northern Niger | Sahel Blog
http://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/...-d-agadez.html

MBM said to be the mastermind http://fr.alakhbar.info/6808-0-Les-a...r-le-Sang.html

Very few reporters in Niger or southern Libya these days.

Document suggests $1.1-million paid to free Canadian envoys from al-Qaeda group - The Globe and Mail
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/shor...tar-belmokhtar

Very interesting read about Belmokhtar and his relationship with the AQIM hierarchy well worth your time:

AP Exclusive: Rise of al-Qaida Sahara terrorist

not surprised the mali soldiers were running out of ammo, they do like a bit of automatic fire!

They didn't look too convincing as a force who could maintain the peace without the French. Appeared poorly trained and illdisciplined with poor drills.

USA for the first time, offered a cash prize for Islamic extremists in Northern and Western Africa: Rewards for Justice-main - english

The highest prize, $ 7 million, is scheduled for the head of the Nigerian sect Boko Haram, Abubakar Shekau. Five million dollars for information that would lead to Mokhtar Belmokhtar and Yahya Abou El Hammam, high master of AQIM. Three million is earmarked for information on Malik Abou Abdelkarim, AQIM press officer for the group MUJAO (Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa).

Now, hunt is open.

Some Sahel/Sahara reading in the doldrums of Summer

Sing me a song! | sahelsounds
Samuel Laurent: «Le désert libyen est devenu un haut lieu de la contrebande et du terrorisme» - Terrorisme - RFI
Hot Spot: Mali — Cultural Anthropology
http://elwatan.com/actualite/sur-la-...216525_109.php
http://maliactu.net/les-dynamiques-t...a-ouagadougou/
http://www.rfi.fr/afrique/20130605-m...acko-gamou-att
French and English.
Negotiations are proceeding in Ouaga between Bamako and MNLA (and the newly formed HCA, High Council of Azawad), as the Malian army is attempting to retake Kidal.