Horizons Unlimited - The HUBB - Islamist activity in the Sahara in relation to travel security

Horizons Unlimited - The HUBB (https://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hubb/)

- North Africa (https://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hubb/north-africa/)

- - Islamist activity in the Sahara in relation to travel security (https://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hubb/north-africa/islamist-activity-sahara-relation-travel-49806)

A new theme in reporting on Aqim - backlash and collapse.
Desperate AQIM breaks silence on Mali | Magharebia

"The front of the Islamic Maghreb today is in direst need of the support of the sons of Tunisia, Morocco, Libya, and Mauritania, to thwart the attack of Crusader France and defeat its agents in the region, and empower the Islamic project and Jihad,"

Mauritania arrests Mali terrorists | Magharebia

Algerian imams unite against salafism | Magharebia
"Over the coming months, we plan to draw up a map of salafism in Algeria, with the list of imams who are thought to sponsor movements that are foreign to our country. It is imperative for the state to replace them," he said.
Most of the work must be done in Algiers "where the vast majority of mosques are hostages to the salafist imams", he said."

Al-Qaeda in Maghreb near collapse | Magharebia
"But all the fighters who flocked to the Sahel desert and northern Mali are now being picked off by airstrikes and ground troops. Replacing them will not be easy.
"The jihadists aren't numerous enough to send reinforcements to all the fronts in the world," Ould Abah says.
"Syria, Yemen and Somalia already distract their efforts," he adds.
The true abilities and size of al-Qaeda had been exaggerated, observers note. The organisation is now facing a major military offensive from which there is no escape."...
"The inability to draw recruits may prove AQIM's undoing, according to Sy Djibril of SOS Pairs Educateurs Association, a Nouakchott youth development agency.
From witnessing religious revival associations spread jihadist ideology in the 1980's to working today with at-risk youth, he has a unique perspective on the recruitment issue.
"The loss of al-Qaeda's prominent leaders means that the group will lose the networks of relations in the desert, experience, money and ability to convince young people," he says.
There will also be disputes among the likely successors, Djibril adds.
"The backbone of terrorist groups has been broken," he concludes.

Also: UNESCO getting involved in protecting Mali heritage at TB2, Gao, Djenne, Bandiagara
http://magharebia.com/en_GB/articles.../11/feature-03

In addition to the two suicide bombings in Gao last month (Feb 2013) there was an additional suicide bombing in Timbuktu on 20 March. More details here:
BBC News - Mali soldier killed in Timbuktu suicide bomb attack

Suicide bombing is a new peril in the region and one that is hard to be strategic about from the perspective of a traveller passing through.

Hostages the test

There have been several claims by the French politicians that northern Mali will be clear of AQIM soon, even in the next few weeks (so sometime in April 2013). There has also been talk about French troop withdrawl and associated concern from people living in northern Mali that this withdrawl is premature.

Whether the French have truly driven AQIM and affiliated insurgents out of Northern Mali can be measured by one simple test - namely the status of the hostages. If the hostages are still in Mali and are still being held, then we can be clear that the job started by the French is not complete.

If the hostages are moved to SW Libya/NE Niger, then a new chapter in the Sahara starts.

The present eerie silence in reporting from Kidal region is indeed ominous.
According to insiders, the hostages are still in northern Mali but not in Tigarghar.

Verdon was reportedly killed in Ngargaren (with various spellings), is this in Tigharghar, or adjacent to? Anyone knows?

Here's an interesting must-read report on the French hostage negotiations that Maurice Freund promised to comment on later
Grands Reporters - L’histoire secrète des otages.
According to Freund it is all true except for the part about Guy Delbrel, vice president of Freund's airline Point-Afrique.
The touareg intermediary mentioned is Rhissa Ag Boula.

When, and if, the French are done remains the question of the status of northern Mali, and how to reconcile the different ethnical groups. Add to that the general decay of the Malian state. Fixing this is a taller order than dislodging a couple thousand jihadists.

Abou Zeid confirmed dead

Abou Zeid is history.

"The president of the French Republic confirms with certainty the death of Abdelhamid Abou Zeid after an offensive by the French army in the Adrar des Ifoghas (mountains) in the North of Mali, at the end of February," the Elysee presidential palace said.

DNA tests were the basis apparently.

The fate of Mokhtar Belmokhtar has yet to be confirmed.

BBC News - France confirms death of Islamist commander Abou Zeid

French troops have finished combing through Tigharghar
now demining. What next?
Mali : dans le massif de Tigharghar, les militaires français ratissent les caches d'Aqmi - Mali/Reportage - RFI

Hello,

here two uncensored videos from Mali:

Mali | VICE Deutschland

and

Mali | VICE Deutschland

Regards

Ulrich

Very interesting, if a little grisly!

This was from March detailing last sightings of MBM near the Algerian border....anything since then?

Algerian Terrorist Leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar Still Alive, Algerian Newspaper reports - Matthew Aid

Also any news on Iyad Ghali?

The remnants of AQMI, some 400 fighters, are setting up rear bases in SW Libya, Fezzan region, where they are trying to 'regain health'. They appear to enjoy protection by Ubari tuaregs.

Les islamistes battus au Mali se refont une santé en Libye : Lignes de défense

More from southern Libya, several links
http://libyastories.com/tag/abdul-wahab-hassain-qaid/
The region is run by Abdul Wahab Hassan Qaid, brother of Bin Laden's second-in-command Abou Yahya Al-Libi, with support from Qatar.

and so a new chapter starts for the Sahara.

SW Libya is where to look for the hostages now.
SW Libya is also uncomfortably close to Djanet and SE Algeria and takes in N Niger of course. Its within range of Chad as well. On the other hand the pressure will lift in Mauri.

AQIM work in predictable ways.

MUJAO attacks Agadez and Arlit

BBC News - Niger suicide bombers target Areva mine and barracks

so I don't suppose that trans-Sahara route will feel safe any time soon.

As for that Libya article, like some of the commenters below it, I thought it was rather vague.

Targeted Areva in Arlit and military barracks in Agadez. Claimed by MUJWA/MUJAO.
24 killed, 14 Areva employees wounded. Hostage situation in Agadez.

Bombings in Northern Niger | Sahel Blog
http://www.jeuneafrique.com/Article/...-d-agadez.html

MBM said to be the mastermind http://fr.alakhbar.info/6808-0-Les-a...r-le-Sang.html

Very few reporters in Niger or southern Libya these days.