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more speculation from me
Some of the Berabish I've met around Timbuctu see themselves as part of the Touareg community
Sahara Passion woman's web pages certainly go even further in supporting that interpretation. I read it as simply good for her business, because every LP backpacker loves a real Tuareg but thinks 'Bera... who?'. If there's a real threat of death, then they may as well have a go. You'd think so but until Edwin Dyer was killed (we were not even given his name until after he was dead) there had been no precedent for execution in Sahara so maybe FCO/whoever assumed the captors were bluffing as before. This time they weren't and so it's all changed - but even then I can't see any sort of rescue happening, as with 2003 Group 1. When these dramatic ops go well it's a PR coup like Group 1 or Iranian embassy siege 1980 or recent French thing (didn't follow it) - but when they dont (as often off home turf: US Iran hostage rescue 1980) - it's a disaster. Disregarding the US base in Gao (could be wrong here), you'd think Algeria, Mali's new friend in the GWoT, must have some killer desert unit gagging for action. And what happened to this co-operation we heard about in May, or was that more talk to give the impression 'we're on it'? BBC NEWS | Africa | Algeria and Mali target al-Qaeda "...The aid includes fuel, weapons and sleeping bags, according to reports in the Algerian media... the operation could start within the next month or two." The location of this camp must be known, as they must have known with the Austrians and 2003 Group 2. We're even told the same Abdelhamid Abou Zeid is involved in all three events (though he could be an 'MBM-type' general purpose bad guy). Once an exchange is completed and the hostages are safe, go after them with everything you have, it's not the Hindu Kush out there. Or have I been watching too many films? It never happened after 2003 or 2008, I don't suppose it will happen this time. Does a govt have a duty to help it's citizens in trouble abroad? You'd think so buy I would not take it for granted - it could even come down to cost/benefit. It strikes me there is no will/desire to finish off the AQIM unit roaming around in Mali (you could say the same for OBL I suppose) but then that idea leads in a whole new direction... Either way, I hope that Werner Greiner, the Swiss guy whose wife was released earlier, comes out of it unharmed. Ch |
Actually to read this from Jeremy Keenan
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Regards Ulrich |
Strange guy this Keenan. I liked his book Saharaman, but after that he went a bit crazy, I think. He calls himself a scientist, but when you read his recent articles and books I sometimes get the impression I am reading the Sun or some other rubbish media. He does not in any way manage to prove the statements he's making.
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This time last year, almost to the day, we were discussing on another Sahara Forum thread
http://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hub...ebellion-35973 what the prospects were for kidnappings and worse in N Mali. It makes very interesting reading. |
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I guess you are not the only one to worry. Before leaving for the Gilf last December, we sent a routine email to the UK Consulate in Cairo, just letting them know what we were up to. That would save them guessing in case we followed the fate of the guys kidnapped (and released) in Karkur Talh two months previously. Upon returning from the trip we found in the mailbox an automated "Out of Office AutoReply", telling us to visit the FCO webiste for foreign policy news and travel advice. No-one ever bothered to read our message. There's a saying making rounds that when there's a situation out there, the Italian government will send ransom money, the French will send special forces, and the British will send deep regrets. |
I was at that festival in 2008
Bad news, I noticed the Tureg women would spit on the ground every time they met our eyes....not a great feeling, but was a great concert.
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I think most people underestimate fundamentalist islamic support among the Tuareg in Mali. Maybe 15 years ago it was different, but things are changing. In 2003 I met in Kidal some young Tuareg that were very much against US and the west. Some had studied at Al Azhar University in Egypt. They wanted all western ngo's to leave Kidal, because they were agents of the US, they said. In Menaka some years earlier the house of a World Vision aidworker was burned down after some christian evangelists showed a Jesus film on a big screen in the open air. One of the hostages in 2003 told me the GSPC guys had good relations with many local Tuareg in Mali.
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Talking with tuaregs in Kidal a couple weeks ago, there were several who wanted to fight the Mali government with arms and also some who deeply resented the French. But noone liked al Qaeda and all I talked to disapproved with the kidnappings. I asked if there were any tuaregs involved with the kidnappings and most of them vehemently denied this. Then there were some who said "who is a tuareg? There are all kinds of tuaregs,"
It was a Friday evening and I was very surprised to see the Kidal nightlife. Hundreds of young tuaregs going disco dancing, shouting "liberté!" while dancing their asses off to rap and reggae. I was worried about our safety as we were the only two white people around, but we soon relaxed. One young guy became aggressive when he saw me - turned out he thought I was a Saudi! (that was a first). I have yet to meet any fundamentalist islamic tuaregs, which is not to say they don't exist. But I think one reason we all like the tuaregs are because they are anti-fundamentalist - free-spirited, humble and relaxed, also when it comes to religion. |
More bad news
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BBC NEWS | Africa | Malian al-Qaeda hunter shot dead
This was a surprise. It comes at the same time we are hearing rapports that Al Qaeda is moving training camps to Africa (Somalia) after having been pressured by drone attacks on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/12/wo...somalia&st=cse It appears the Brits were preparing an operation to liberate mr Dyer but it was cancelled Whitehall ‘bottled’ mission to rescue a British hostage | The Sun |News|Campaigns|Our Boys |
Mali army 'attacks al-Qaeda base'
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"The armed forces sent out patrols to try to track down the suspected militants around Mali's northern border region with Algeria, deep in the Sahara, after the assassination this month of the security chief of the Timbuktu region, the source said.
"One of the patrols came across a group of gunmen in several armed 4x4s in the Timetrine sector of Tessalit," the source, a senior military official close to the Malian defence ministry, told Reuters on condition of anonymity." Mali army clashes with al Qaeda suspects - source | Reuters Perhaps the latest developments with the hostage killing and attack in Timbouctou can start a process that, hopefully, will evict Al Qaeda from the Malian desert. |
African Union seeks crackdown on ransom payments
African Union seeks crackdown on ransom payments | Reuters
CAERT: "Mali should do much more to curb AQIM's activities in its country." |
details
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Background/speculation about the assassination in Timbuktu:
maliweb.net :: Salafistes au Nord-Mali : Psychose à Tombouctou Tensions in Tim' Meurtres au Sahel : Jeuneafrique.com Ch |
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