Bad news about Mali hostage
 

BBC NEWS | UK | Al-Qaeda 'kills British hostage'

and BBC NEWS | UK | Algerian named in Briton killing

or

Al-Qaeda kills British hostage Edwen Dyer, kidnapped in Mali after music festival - Times Online

AQIM statement
Al Qaeda Islamic Maghreb / / statement regarding the killing of British soldier Edwin Dyer - AQIM - News : WorldAnalysis.net

Ch

Fu--ing bastards!

Pedro

If the statement by AQIM proves to be true, my thoughts are with the family of the victim. This does however raise serious questions about the British government's refusal to pay ransom money or negotiate.

While I am not suggesting that paying ransoms is appropriate in all situations, it seems that the vast majority of recent kidnappings of westerners in North Africa (ie Austrians in Tunisia etc) have been successfully resolved by the payment of a ransom. This suggests that either AQIM, the GSPC, or whichever local variation of these groups is responsible, is primarily motivated by money, rather than political means.

Where hostage death have occured they have generally been by dehydration / stress caused by capitivity, or due to a shoot-out with government forces. This would appear to be a rare case where the hostage takers have executed the hostage.

As travellers we all know the risk of entering regions where the politicial climate is not stable, and therefore we don't necessarily expect a government to bail us out, but it would still be nice to know that government policy is not so inflexible as to rule out negotiation / ransoms, where this may result in successfully freeing a hostage.

I find this approach rather selfish, as paying a ransom to free you--who basically decided to go joy-riding in a potentially dangerous location--puts others at risk, including those in the same area for a better reason (government service, charity work, etc.).

I don't know the particulars regarding this hostage, but it is very possible that he was kidnapped precisely because of the example set by the ransom paid for the Austrians or other kidnap victims.

If you want to go to these areas, more power to you, but I don't think it is reasonable to expect your government to pay for your release.

Click the links above: it was not as simple as just paying up to release Edwin Dyer as with the other hostages who were let go. In his case they wanted a guy called Abu Qatada released from a UK prison.

Ch

They were kidnapped last February provably at Niger by locals tuaregs and then sold to ALQMI for MONEY!
ALQMI are introducing in Sahara being useful the bad situation of tuareg and with money from Arabia Saudi.

Chris,

Agreed, but it is worth noting that the hostage takers of the Austrians in Tunisia also initially demanded the release of prisoners held in Algeria & Tunisia, as per the attached BBC link.

BBC NEWS | World | Africa | Chancellor urges hostage release

Whilst every case is clearly separate, a consistent theme seems to be arising. Kidnap a westerner, demand the release of militants from jail, accept this wont happen and then settle on a ransom in exchange for releasing the hostage.

Motoreiter - my point wasn't whether we should expect to be released by our governments paying a ransom, rather it was that the outright refusal by the British government to pay ransoms is not helpful, and removes a potential bargaining chip, which has successfully been used by several European governments in the past to obtain the release of their citizens.

... a consistent theme seems to be arising. Kidnap a westerner, demand the release of militants from jail, accept this wont happen and then settle on a ransom in exchange for releasing the hostage.

Yes Matt, that seems to have been a pattern before. I do recall that when the Austrians were grabbed I believe it was said that they were disappointed they were not Brits/French/US - possibly because they have more guys like Abu Qatada in custody?

Also, unless it's been verified somewhere (by the already released hostages in Europe who experienced the transaction) I must say do find this 'selling on by Niger Tuareg [rebels] to AQIM' angle a bit fishy. We heard similar with the Austrians.

Either way it is depressing that a regional precedent has now been set to kill the hostage when they don't get what they want.

Ch

You can certainly imagine the Malian/Niger Govt. taking the opportunity to ladle heat onto rebel factions. But on the other hand – a handful of Islamists on tour from Algeria acting alone? Perhaps there is no simple truth, money does a great job of blurring ideology and motive.

Sad news indeed. Sympathies to the family.

how safe do you think it would be for a yank alone in a baja bug? especially if i have to keep my plates of origin on my car? marko

The englishman was kidnapped together with the three other europeans near the Niger border.
The involvement of tuaregs should be questioned - most tuaregs will deny that tuaregs are involved in the kidnappings. Have the canadians that were kidnapped told their story? The Niger and Mali governements are always likely to blame tuaregs,

This was the first killing of a hostage held for ransom in the Sahara I believe. Perhaps this will change the laissez-faire attitude of the French and the Malians.

Apparently there is no advantage having a US or UK passport.

A very sad development.

What about the suisse guy who's kidnapped togehter with the english guy. I suppose he's still in the hands of AQIM. Or not?

Ransoms are not the answer
 

I really don't see how paying ransoms helps the situation. We are all more at risk if any old bandit let alone serious extremists think they can at least earn a good ransom by taking a tourist. Now, if a group of bandits - and lets face it all this talk of Al Q is far fetched, I certainly don't think they were taken initially by Al Q - takes a bunch of tourists they have to be damn sure about their resolve if they take a Brit whereas if they take a Swiss or a German they know they could be in for a big pay day.

Unanswered questions
 

I wholeheartedly agree. I very much doubt that they were taken by Tuaregs, certainly not Malian Tuaregs. I was in Mali at the time in the Adrar des Iforas and no one would accept that it was rebels - even rebels! It wouldn't make sense, and certainly wouldn't help their cause but just allow the government to paint them as extremist. What was odd at the time of the taking was that the vehicles were found with all the luggage. Now if it was bandits or rebels why would they have abandoned the vehicles? At the time I heard that they had come from Niger and were returning to Niger. I havent heard that since so not sure about that, but if that was the case it makes it more worrying because it could suggest that more official people knew their movements. Who would gain advantage by kidnapping tourists and blaming Tuaregs? Who would not care about the vehicles?
I may well be barking up the wrong tree here but this was the talk in mali at the time. Also nobody could understand why the Malian government weren't coming out and insisting that the hostages were not taken in Mali.

And listening to the news you'd think the whole thing took place in Mali.
Tragedy for the family, tragedy for Mali, tragedy for all of us who know how safe Mali is.

What I think:

... a handful of Islamists on tour from Algeria acting alone?

While there are obviously cells in the northeast of Alg, it is my impression that the AQIM are also based in northern Mali - whether it's the Iforhas (Tuareg country) or further west as far as Mori, I've never worked out. And although the BBC report suggests it lazily, AQIM are probably not all 'Algerians' either.

....any old bandit let alone serious extremists think they can at least earn a good ransom by taking a tourist.

In this part of the Sahara (Tuareg/Berabish) there was no precedent for 'bandits' taking hostages for money until 2003 - and GSPC were not bandits. AFAIK, criminal activity in the Sahara is based around far less risky but reliably lucrative smuggling (and the odd heist). Last I knew the south Algerians turn a blind eye to part of it and one good cig run could earn you a 79 pickup. It takes long-term commitment to be burdened with keeping hostages alive and negotiating a ransom with their governments - more than just greed and a handful of Thurayas.

...and lets face it all this talk of Al Q is far fetched, I certainly don't think they were taken initially by Al Q

I wonder why you say that. Local 'tribesmen' (as the BBC calls them) making an opportunistic grab for a quick buck - that sounds less likely to me than a planned AQIM operation tracking the Oase Reisen tour well away from the better known (and better protected?) music festivals.

... they have to be damn sure about their resolve if they take a Brit whereas if they take a Swiss or a German they know they could be in for a big pay day.

Good point which someone else suggested to me. Following Edwin Dyer's execution Brits may be less valuable as hostages, but I'm not sure I'd want to put it to the test.

Now if it was bandits or rebels why would they have abandoned the vehicles? ... Who would not care about the vehicles?

AQIM. They have all the vehicles and other gear they want and are more driven by ideology and millions of euros than a couple more TLCs. It's the same reason they were abandoned in 2003 Alg and 2008 Tuni: it shows AQIM-type commitment not a run of the mill heist like in the Gilf last year or most years in the Aïr. Vehicle snatching in parts of the Sahara has long been a relatively commonplace activity where the victims were left unharmed.

Who would gain advantage by kidnapping tourists and blaming Tuaregs

We know who - the local govts to have it parroted by the media - but it seems most of us here have not fallen for this line; it's as transparent as blaming Iraq for 9-11.

The whole Niger element could be a red herring IMO. That Anderamboukane is near the border is coincidental but may have helped imply Nigerans (ie: 'Tuareg') were involved while they race back up to the Iforhas or wherever. It is true that when these attacks/kidnappings happen it's normal for the host country to blame bandits from the neighbouring country.

And listening to the news you'd think the whole thing took place in Mali.

My feeling is that it did and it is. Mali is different from Niger in that the Tuareg share the outlaw north Mali with the Berabish who are happy to stay below the radar while getting on with business and who it is said have closer ties with AQIM.

Ch

Eh? One of the articles quotes the British PM as saying "We have strong reason to believe that a British citizen, Edwin Dyer, has been murdered by an al-Qaeda cell in Mali."

If your point is that he could be Welsh or Scottish instead of English, why does that matter?

As I was in Kidal only a couple weeks ago, coming in from Tamanrasset over Timiaouine, I made a lot of inquiries, certainly out of curiousity but also out of concern for our own safety.
Some tuaregs claimed to have actually sighted the kidnapped in the desert. The word at the time was that they were held in the region where the three countries meet. Now I heard that Dyer was murdered in Niger where the Swiss guy is still being held?
Like Chris said, the kidnappings are not random but planned. The odd tourist quickly passing through (like ourselves) is less at risk than people visitng the festivals or staying in the area.
Tuareg involvement - with the criminal activities going on in the desert tuaregs will usually claim that this is run by "arabs" and the role of the tuareg is, as in other lines of business, mostly limited to being a guide or driver.
Then again there are many with mixed arab/tuareg heritage so it is not really a question of ethnicity. The question is if the tuaregs as a group should carry the blame for what is going on, and I think not.
AQIM seems much more like a bunch of criminals to me than people driven by religious or ideological zeal. Their affiliation with Al Qaeda has been questioned.

Eh?.........

Hello Chris,
ok, no bandits, what than? Everybody knows, that they have been used from the algerian generallity for kidnapping us (was 2005 or so, after General Lamari left the army, that in an Algerian online-newspaper was written that our kidnapping was staged by the Army and Lamari was involved. Don't remember which one). And why our kidnapping happened? - Algeria want's to become a better number in the world so they could say to the Americans: Hey, we stay together in our fight against the terrorism in the Sahel, but You must help us.

Ok, now they call themselves "Al Qaeda", but it's still the GSPC and the kidnapping today was made by the same persons as by our kidnapping. So what now, again the Algerian Army involved? May be yes. The only interesting fact is: The Americans want the oil in the Sahel Region.

By the way: Why Abderrezak el Para, the former leader of the GSPC and chef of our kidnapping is in Constaninopel jailed, but stays free and is a well known "businessman"? He was sentenced several times in absence to death and many years of prison, but never arrived in front of the court. - Of course, cause then he could talk things which aren't allowed to be heart.

Regards

Ulrich

P.S.: Just found, read it: RPT-ANALYSIS-Al Qaeda's Sahara wing blend terror with business | News by Country | Reuters

Clearly the AQIM are not operating in isolation in these areas, if they are well-funded why would they struggle like that? They need guides, supplies and co-operation...and Touareg and Berabish people have been offering those services at market price for centuries. That is a million miles away from them being involved or responsible as collectives.

"It takes long-term commitment to be burdened with keeping hostages alive and negotiating a ransom with their governments - more than just greed and a handful of Thurayas."

Surely. Although take a look at Somalia, this kind of industry can develop fast, complete with established brokers and agreed models of exchange. The fact that ransoms are involved at all shows that 'business' is in the mix.

Mali safe? Sadly not everywhere and not all of the time.

Slight correction if I may Caminando re: the above.

Mr Dyer seems to have attended the Festival of Anderamboukane and not the Festival de la Musique in Essakane which is north west of Tombouctou.
Anderamboukane is a frontier town on the Malian side of the Mali-Niger border. It is approximately 450 bumpy Km from Gao and 100 Km past the last major town of Menaka.
Mali is such a wonderful country with mostly very pleasant people. When I was there last, a French Family (bar 1) was murdered near Aleg-
As to whether this will have an effect on the one in Essakane- who knows- we live in a very turbulent world.
Terrible shame for Mr Dyer- condolences to his family

Ulrich, thanks for reminding me that 2003 was almost certainly not how it was presented - or indeed of the Austrians' mysterious transit in 2008 from Tuni to Mali...

Re: Berabish/Tuareg. My point was IMO the Berabish have a lot more going on down there than is commonly assumed (as I learned when they recovered me off SEQ). For example it's often assumed the famous salt caravans in Niger and Mali are Tuareg affairs, but AFAIK they are hired in by Hausa or Berabish merchants.
Fair point about Somali. I wonder if 'established brokers' (doing nicely out of the 'harmless' heists as reported recently) are in on deals like this.

.....Festival au Desert, where it appears Mr. Dyer was coming from.

I did read in one report that the Oase Reisen tour was coming from Essakane and heading for Anderamboukane (and then presumably heading for Niamey to fly back?), but it's not impossible the media got in a muddle over their Malian desert festivals.

Ch

Thanks Bertrand - I thought it was the Essakane one. I've thought about this man's lonely situation and how appalling it must have been for him when no help was forthcoming, if that were even possible. A really bad event.

El Para
 

"Why Abderrezak el Para, the former leader of the GSPC and chef of our kidnapping is in Constaninopel jailed, but stays free and is a well known "businessman"? He was sentenced several times in absence to death and many years of prison, but never arrived in front of the court."

I'm interested where did you find this info, I believed is was jailed in Algeria.

RR.

yes he must have been in a very very 'dark place all alone' - one cannot fathom the terrible shock and fear he must have faced when he knew it was the end- Such a waste of a human life- and for what... may he rest in peace-

Just catching up on this sad news having been in SE Angola for a few weeks.

There are many interesting posts on this thread. I wanted, though, to add another angle. I have long worried that the UK Foreign Office would be of no help if a UK citizen ran into trouble in the Sahara. They lack the contacts and an informed approach in these sort of hostage situations. Recall the Iran-UK Navy drama.

But I would not have predicted that the UK govt would simply abandon someone to their death. OK, if their principle is not to pay ransom and that leads to death of the hostage, then why not send in some special forces guys to see if they can do the liberation differently - as the French have done in the Somalia pirate attacks recently. If there's a real threat of death, then they may as well have a go.

Hello RR,

articles from Algeria concerning El Para (in French, translate Yourself with Google):

El Watan :: 4 mars 2008 :: Abderrezak El Para jugé le 24 mars

El Watan :: 26 mars 2008 :: Le procès d’El Para reporté

Echorouk Online - Two dangerous terrorists wanted by Batna’s criminal court

Echorouk Online - Algeria : Abderrazek Al Para, 60 other terrorists before justice in Batna

Algérie 2003*: l’affaire des «*otages du Sahara*», décryptage d’une manipulation

" Al-Qaida au Maghreb ", ou la très étrange histoire du GSPC algérien

Regards

Ulrich

Last December I was told if you want goods transported or guidance from A to B you will be speaking to the Berabish and if you want to make sure those goods arrive safely then you may be speaking to the Touareg. Some of the Berabish I've met around Timbuctu see themselves as part of the Touareg community so it becomes blurry (again!).

The French have their base in Djibouti, so you can see how they do what they do in Somalia, but how would the British go about a rescue in Mali or Niger? Via the US in Mali/Niger?

I agree that there is a clear difference in circumstances between Iran and this sad event. But the point I intended to make was a different one, namely that in my opinion, the UK Government did not handle the negotiations well in the Iran case. In fact Iran seemed to run rings round the UK Foreign Office and Iran was in control until the incident ended. If this was any indication of how well the UK is able to negotiate in these sort of North African/Middle Eastern/Arabic settings (I know Iran isn't Arabic), then you can see why they failed completely in this event in Mali/Niger. The message seems to be that UK nationals are on their own out there. The Foreign Office just takes one strong line and has no Plan B.

Thanks Ulrich or your infos.
I've also heard that El Para had given declarations to give up terrorism against civilians (but I can't find this link anymore).
RR.

more speculation from me
 

Some of the Berabish I've met around Timbuctu see themselves as part of the Touareg community

Sahara Passion woman's web pages certainly go even further in supporting that interpretation. I read it as simply good for her business, because every LP backpacker loves a real Tuareg but thinks 'Bera... who?'.


If there's a real threat of death, then they may as well have a go.

You'd think so but until Edwin Dyer was killed (we were not even given his name until after he was dead) there had been no precedent for execution in Sahara so maybe FCO/whoever assumed the captors were bluffing as before.
This time they weren't and so it's all changed - but even then I can't see any sort of rescue happening, as with 2003 Group 1.

When these dramatic ops go well it's a PR coup like Group 1 or Iranian embassy siege 1980 or recent French thing (didn't follow it) - but when they dont (as often off home turf: US Iran hostage rescue 1980) - it's a disaster.

Disregarding the US base in Gao (could be wrong here), you'd think Algeria, Mali's new friend in the GWoT, must have some killer desert unit gagging for action. And what happened to this co-operation we heard about in May, or was that more talk to give the impression 'we're on it'?
BBC NEWS | Africa | Algeria and Mali target al-Qaeda

"...The aid includes fuel, weapons and sleeping bags, according to reports in the Algerian media... the operation could start within the next month or two."

The location of this camp must be known, as they must have known with the Austrians and 2003 Group 2. We're even told the same Abdelhamid Abou Zeid is involved in all three events (though he could be an 'MBM-type' general purpose bad guy).

Once an exchange is completed and the hostages are safe, go after them with everything you have, it's not the Hindu Kush out there. Or have I been watching too many films? It never happened after 2003 or 2008, I don't suppose it will happen this time.

Does a govt have a duty to help it's citizens in trouble abroad? You'd think so buy I would not take it for granted - it could even come down to cost/benefit.

It strikes me there is no will/desire to finish off the AQIM unit roaming around in Mali (you could say the same for OBL I suppose) but then that idea leads in a whole new direction...

Either way, I hope that Werner Greiner, the Swiss guy whose wife was released earlier, comes out of it unharmed.

Ch

Actually to read this from Jeremy Keenan
Jeremy Keenan: West's made-up terror links to blame for killing - Commentators, Opinion - The Independent

Regards

Ulrich

Strange guy this Keenan. I liked his book Saharaman, but after that he went a bit crazy, I think. He calls himself a scientist, but when you read his recent articles and books I sometimes get the impression I am reading the Sun or some other rubbish media. He does not in any way manage to prove the statements he's making.

This time last year, almost to the day, we were discussing on another Sahara Forum thread
http://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hub...ebellion-35973
what the prospects were for kidnappings and worse in N Mali.

It makes very interesting reading.

Richard,

I guess you are not the only one to worry. Before leaving for the Gilf last December, we sent a routine email to the UK Consulate in Cairo, just letting them know what we were up to. That would save them guessing in case we followed the fate of the guys kidnapped (and released) in Karkur Talh two months previously.

Upon returning from the trip we found in the mailbox an automated "Out of Office AutoReply", telling us to visit the FCO webiste for foreign policy news and travel advice. No-one ever bothered to read our message.

There's a saying making rounds that when there's a situation out there, the Italian government will send ransom money, the French will send special forces, and the British will send deep regrets.

I was at that festival in 2008
 

Bad news, I noticed the Tureg women would spit on the ground every time they met our eyes....not a great feeling, but was a great concert.

I think most people underestimate fundamentalist islamic support among the Tuareg in Mali. Maybe 15 years ago it was different, but things are changing. In 2003 I met in Kidal some young Tuareg that were very much against US and the west. Some had studied at Al Azhar University in Egypt. They wanted all western ngo's to leave Kidal, because they were agents of the US, they said. In Menaka some years earlier the house of a World Vision aidworker was burned down after some christian evangelists showed a Jesus film on a big screen in the open air. One of the hostages in 2003 told me the GSPC guys had good relations with many local Tuareg in Mali.

Talking with tuaregs in Kidal a couple weeks ago, there were several who wanted to fight the Mali government with arms and also some who deeply resented the French. But noone liked al Qaeda and all I talked to disapproved with the kidnappings. I asked if there were any tuaregs involved with the kidnappings and most of them vehemently denied this. Then there were some who said "who is a tuareg? There are all kinds of tuaregs,"
It was a Friday evening and I was very surprised to see the Kidal nightlife. Hundreds of young tuaregs going disco dancing, shouting "liberté!" while dancing their asses off to rap and reggae. I was worried about our safety as we were the only two white people around, but we soon relaxed. One young guy became aggressive when he saw me - turned out he thought I was a Saudi! (that was a first).
I have yet to meet any fundamentalist islamic tuaregs, which is not to say they don't exist. But I think one reason we all like the tuaregs are because they are anti-fundamentalist - free-spirited, humble and relaxed, also when it comes to religion.

More bad news
 

BBC NEWS | Africa | Malian al-Qaeda hunter shot dead

Ch

BBC NEWS | Africa | Malian al-Qaeda hunter shot dead

This was a surprise. It comes at the same time we are hearing rapports that Al Qaeda is moving training camps to Africa (Somalia) after having been pressured by drone attacks on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/12/wo...somalia&st=cse

It appears the Brits were preparing an operation to liberate mr Dyer but it was cancelled
Whitehall ‘bottled’ mission to rescue a British hostage | The Sun |News|Campaigns|Our Boys

Mali army 'attacks al-Qaeda base'
 

More news

BBC NEWS | Africa | Mali army 'attacks al-Qaeda base'

"The armed forces sent out patrols to try to track down the suspected militants around Mali's northern border region with Algeria, deep in the Sahara, after the assassination this month of the security chief of the Timbuktu region, the source said.

"One of the patrols came across a group of gunmen in several armed 4x4s in the Timetrine sector of Tessalit," the source, a senior military official close to the Malian defence ministry, told Reuters on condition of anonymity."

Mali army clashes with al Qaeda suspects - source | Reuters

Perhaps the latest developments with the hostage killing and attack in Timbouctou can start a process that, hopefully, will evict Al Qaeda from the Malian desert.

African Union seeks crackdown on ransom payments
 

African Union seeks crackdown on ransom payments | Reuters
CAERT:
"Mali should do much more to curb AQIM's activities in its country."

details
 

Background/speculation about the assassination in Timbuktu:
maliweb.net :: Salafistes au Nord-Mali : Psychose à Tombouctou

Tensions in Tim'
Meurtres au Sahel : Jeuneafrique.com

Ch

my question is this , if a country was to pay ransom, wouldnt that increase the number of kidnappings? it is sad that this man was killed, true. but, if we chose to go into places that we know are a bit doggie for the adventure, then we must also accept the risk and except the fact we might not make it out of there alive. as for me ,i understand and am debating if he risk is worth the reward. i think it is

Escalating fighting near Tessalit
 

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L6169976.htm

"Dozens killed, 20 soldiers missing"

Regarding ransoms
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L4512141.htm

"The 53-member African Union adopted a resolution against ransom payments at a summit in Sirte, in Libya. Some countries worry ransoms paid to hostage-takers in Somalia and the northern Sahara could fall into the hands of al Qaeda and its allies.
"The (AU) vigorously condemns the payment of ransoms to terrorist groups to secure the freedom of hostages ... (and) asks the international community to criminalise the payment of ransoms to terrorist groups," said the resolution."

Al-Qaeda 'releases Swiss hostage'
 

Finally some good news
 

For the first time in a while, noone is kept hostage in the desert.

UPDATE 3-Swiss hostage held by al Qaeda in Sahara freed-Mali | News by Country | Reuters

"This release brings to an end the process of returning the foreign hostages held in the Sahel-Sahara region to their families," according to a government statement read on state radio on Sunday.

The statement thanked the Swiss government for its understanding and patience and noted efforts by community leaders in Mali's remote north but gave no details on how or why the Swiss was freed.

Greiner will meet Mali's president on Monday before returning home, a security source told Reuters.

Swiss radio reported that Greiner was in good health, but was exhausted and it was not sure when he would return to Switzerland.

"The official line is that no ransom was paid and his release was secured solely through negotiations," Swiss radio reported on Sunday.

3 million euros ransom paid?
 

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/CHI327625.htm
Al Qaeda's North African wing was paid a 3 million euros ($4.17 million) ransom for the release of Swiss hostage Werner Greiner, an Algerian newspaper said on Monday.
"The money was transferred a few days ago and was handed to a Tuareg middleman in northern Niger, the Arabic language daily El Khabar added, quoting an unnamed security source."
"The West is a hypocrite. It wants to fight terrorism but it pays ransoms to free its hostages. This is not the best way to combat Al Qaeda,"

I am sure that everyone on this board will be rightly thankful that the Swiss hostage has now been released.

Since this situation has been favourably resolved we need to ask some difficult questions:

1. does the payment of a ransom by European governments secure the release of hostages taken in the Sahara?
2. does the payment of this ransom increase the risk for other travellers in the area
3. does this payment then create further "terror" / political instability beyond the area where the hostage was taken (ie are the funds used to develop an insurgency culture)

The (anecdotal) evidence suggests that Edwin Dyer was killed as a result of the British government's refusal to pay a ransom and release a named terrorist suspect. It seems that all other western hostages taken in the region over the last few years (a mix of Swiss, Germans, French and Italians) have been released as a result of ransom payments in the range of €3-€5m, without the need to release certain political / terrorist prisoners, despite this being stated in the original demands. This suggests to me that money, rather than political / ideological / religious views is the primary motivator of hostage taking, and that political demands originally made by the hostage takers will be relaxed or accomodated if the money is forthcoming.

Does this potentially increase the payoff for future kidnappers? Clearly the answer to this has to be yes, but in my view, this risk can be reduced, not by restricting ransom payments, but rather by either investing in local security forces or promoting political automonomy (ie taureg regions in Mali) to reduce the risk of hostage taking.

Given that each of us generally buys an expensive travel insurance policy, you have to question whether the cost of purchasing a hostage's release is really significantly more than a medical repatriation from the Sahara with a broken neck. I suggest the cost is relatively similar, and therefore financial considerations should not dictate the decision to pay ransoms.

Whilst ransom payments to Somalian pirates have clearly increased the general wealth of the Somalian coastal community, it would be difficult to suggest the same has occured in Mali, Niger or Tunisia. Therefore I remain to be convinced of a causal link between ranson payments and the development of future terrorist / insurgent cells in the Sahara.

There have also been some earlier threads were it has been questioned whether the Algerian authorities were involved in some of the kidnappings earlier this decade, on the basis they must have been aware of large movements of kidnappers or hostages through their territory. Whilst this does sound plausible, perhaps we should remember the situation where the Chadian / JEM rebels managed to get to Omdurman in Khartoum in a bunch of 4x4s without being noticed. This suggests to me that it is entirely plausible for groups of kidnappers to operate independently in the desert without wider support and thus remain outside a larger organised group.

I am interested in alternative views on this.

Matt,

It takes little convincing that terrorism of this kind is just like any other capitalist venture, only less legitimate. Ideology is useful insofar as the selection of the business model is concerned, but not essential. And the dilemma how to react to kidnapping is not new, neither is the range of options faced by the two parties. What is changing is perhaps our perception of justified risk versus anticipated reward and the way such risk is underwritten by different political systems.

If there were no single individual or government willing to pay a penny in ransom, there would be no kidnappings, only murders. But kidnapping for ransom has been around for millenia, so the British government's refusal to pay any ransom money is a rather disingenous effort to convince the world of it's high moral stance and an attempt to persuade British nationals not to engage, for health and safety reasons, in anything even remotely risky. BTW, Richard the Lionheart would be still languishing in captivity after the Third Crusade if England did not pay his personal enemy, Leopold of Austria, the sum of £60,000 for his release.

What seems a particularly perfidious aspect of the kidnapping business is the role of intermediaries. These guys are not highway robbers, they are dressed in pinstripe suits, run respectable law offices in the City and are far from engaging in any illicit business. But it's them who laugh all the way to the bank every time a ransom note is posted somewhere in the world.

Should we blame them? After all they pay taxes and contribute to the wealth of this country, while other governments cough up the money :thumbup1:

Read/listen to these:

BBC NEWS | Africa | How do you pay a pirate's ransom?
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/...0604-1040a.mp3

No reason to in any way condone piracy or kidbnappings.
No, it is not just another line of business.
And no, piracy and kidnappings is not a way of generating wealth or development.

The Brits are damn right in refusing to pay any ransom. Problem is that it is futile unless EU gets together with a common policy of refusing to pay. Until that happens, Brits would be well advised to stay away from the danger zone.

Until we get the inside story, I don't think we can know much about the alleged involvement of Algerian military in what is going on in the desert, only speculate. And whether the kidnappers are only motivated by money, who knows.
I read that four men have now been arrested for the killing of an American in Nouakchott last month. The alleged Al Qaeda members are said to have come from Mali. Was it a planned assasination or an attempt at kidnapping gone awry? Who knows.

Another coming development. The recent revolt by the muslim uighurs in western China give ideological motivation for the so inclined to start kidnapping Chinese in the Maghreb. I wonder how the Chinese government will respond? They have already issued a warning to Chinese citizens on foreign soil -
albawaba.com middle east news information::China warns Chinese in Algeria of al Qaeda threat
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/new...cle6704812.ece
"Al-Qaeda has issued its first threat against China with a vow to attack Chinese workers in North Africa in retaliation for Beijing’s treatment of Muslim Uighurs."

Mali Tuareg at peace talks
 

News associated with the area.
http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/sct_n/

I would agree these Sahara kidnappings are not 'just another line of business' in the way of Somali pirates or even Yemen (until recently, that is).

Ch

Hi all,

Another interesting analysis of the subject: a Radio 4 report "The kidnap threat to Britons abroad"

The Report

[Edwin Dyer] ... emir wounded in clash with Algerian troops
 

Maghreb News

2009-11-05 The al-Qaeda emir responsible for executing British hostage Edwin Dyer last May was gravely injured in a clash with Algerian troops in Adrar, El Khabar and Journal Tahalil reported on Wednesday (November 4th). Hamid Essouffi, aka Abdel Hamid Abou Zeid, leads the "Taregh ibn Ziyad" brigade. The katibate is one of four such brigades operating in al-Qaeda's Southern Zone, the Sahara-Sahel region stretching from northeast Mauritania to Somalia. Essouffi allegedly ordered the beheading last September of 11 Mauritanian soldiers kidnapped in Aklet Tourine.

Hello,

2 interviews with Jeremy Keenan on YouTube.
Oh, good old Jeremy!

YouTube - Algerian Authorities Kidnapped EuropeanTourists in 2003 P1

YouTube - Algerian Authorities Kidnapped European tourists in 2003 P2

Regards

Ulrich

Thanks for pointing this interview out Ulrich. They are always interesting to hear.

One point of frustration is how poor the line of questioning is. Keenan presents his story as pure fact. I would have been asking him what evidence he had to support his story.

One important contradiction from Keenan is that in Part 2 Keenan argues that Algeria kidnapped the 32 tourists in order to prove to America that Algeria had a problem that America should help with. In Part 2 Keenan argues that it was the Americans that set about organising the kidnapping. It is not clear to me whether Keenan thinks it was the Algerians or whether he thinks it was the Americans. He doesn't exactly say it was both of them. He trades them off against each other.

There was, to be sure, a lot going on behind the scenes in the kidnapping of the 32. But I think it is the evidence in support of these theories that should get air time. That's the only way more clarity will emerge. Stories without evidence are just free to get wilder by the day.

Richard,

I appreciate your concerns, but what kind of eveidence should we expect in a matter such as this? Would a signed confession from the perpetrators be more credible than JK's concusions based on the info from people speaking to him in private? Are JK's findings generally ureliable/disputable ?

...Are JK's findings generally ureliable/disputable ?

Many genuine Saharan experts seems to think so. A recent paper he wrote for MENAS on, AFAIR, the Austrian situation (just before the execution of Edwin Dyer) being a good case to point.

I rather like this prescient quote from Time mag about a less controversial earlier book of his:
But to see it, you have to look past the marks of an outsider, the signature of one who likes to say, all too often, "Jeremy Keenan was here."
time.com/time/pacific

and as priffe notes elsewhere on the HUBB:

... Keenan speculates wildly and assumes the part of spokesman for Africa and he does give the impression of someone who's lost it.

"Just because I don't have any evidence doesn't mean there is no involvement".
Not the words you want to hear from a scholar...

Ch

Maybe the British are safer now because there is no financial gain from kidnapping a British person.

Hello, twenty4seven

I think You have too much dewy-eyed optimism.

Do You think they look first Your passport before they catch You?

Regards

Ulrich

They might not look at your passport, but if the kidnappings are planned at all (as I suspect they are) I would guess the kidnappers know something about the victims, including nationality, before they take them.

In the case of the Canadian diplomats, AQ-M definitely knew who they were and what their travel plans were and staged the ambush on this info which ironically was meant to make the travel of the Canadians safer. I reckon in the case of the tourists taken after the music festival, their nationality might not have been that well established - just that they looked European. Kidnapping of europeans is part of the business plan now all the way from Somalia, through Chad to Niger/Mali.

It is strange that they just report that he was "gravely injured". Doesn't even mention if he was captured? I have found no other infiormation.

It appears that most kidnappings are well planned and not random. In the case of the Canadians, there are even reasons to believe the Niger governemnt was involved to some degree.
Some nationalities should be more desireable to kidnap, such as germans/austrians/swiss - their governements will pay up without quibbling like the brits do. :/

what area to avoid?
 

Hi,

Planning a trip (independent by 4x4) to WA first half 2010, including Mauritania and Mali. What area should I avoid to minimise the risk of encountering these Al-Q chaps?

Cheers,

Noel

Agree that some nationalities will be more desirable to the kidnappers in monetary terms. But I think GB nationality stiil remains desirable for other reasons, like political leaverage and reputation of AQ-M. Being able to demand release of prisoners must help AQ-M to be perceived as politically motivated rather than just simple bandits - regardless of what their actual status and motive is. It would be harder for them to recruit their well disciplined rank and file and to keep their rank and file under harsh conditions in the desert during the long kidnappings if it were clear to all that their sole motive was banditry.

I agree that the kidnappings are well planned and not random but the issue of nationality may still not be a key part of the planning exercise.

I remember reading in one of the press reports that the kidnappers were disappointed at finding out the nationality of some of the kidnapped. To me that suggested that the kidnappers were aiming at European tourists generally but didn't know their precise nationality. Also, taking several at once helps to spread the likelihood of payment, however complicated that makes the negotiations.

Seems that overall the best tactic to minimise kidnapping is random travel plans the details of which are kept a very close secret. Hard to do when vehicle tracks are obvious and when replenishing fuel, food and water in small settlements.

Five Million dollar question!

If you take a look at the kidnappings that have happened so far, we see that the modis has been different.

1. 32 kidnapped in 2003 seem to have been taken from bottleknecks/defiles or well known waypoints, with a strong hint that the position of the tourists was posted on ahead from checkpoints. Others were simply discovered by chance getting something to eat on the side of the piste. But a particular area was definitely chosen not too far from the kidnappers HQ which had been carefully planned and set up over several months. The area was close to the start of the desert pistes when entering from N Algeria/Tunisia

2. The taking of the Austrians in Tunisia was quite a surprise to me because of the difficulty of transporting them all the way through Libya/Algeria to N Mali. Like those in (1), the Austrians were guide free. AQ-M seemed to like the proximity to the Libya/Algerian border, so they could perhaps dip in and out knowing that by the time Algeria and Libya got into dialogue, they'd be in N Mali. But the disadvantage of having to traverse several thousand kilometers set against the advantage of finding tourists in Tunisia is something I dont understand. They could also have found tourists near Tam in Algeria.

3. The Canadian diplomats got taken on the back of leaked travel plans.

4. Those kidnapped from the music festival must have been generally earmarked as good potential - i.e. the place & time of the festival was known and fixed. Intelligence from the festival would no doubt have fed through as to when they were leaving and on what track. They were taken close to the Mali-Niger border/


So what are the common threads?
a) being close to borders
b) known events or known travel plans or areas which are popular through which tourists pass reasonably frequently -i.e. some element of predictability
c) big bad luck


I have not exactly answered the question about where to avoid. But if I were AQ-M I'd hang out in the east of Mauri waiting for tourists on the eastern most tracks to Mali. Close to the borders, predictable, some traffic if you wait enough and lots of open space not so far away.

Mali north of Gao and Timbuktu is the short answer to the question of where not to go.

Depressingly, incidents over the last few years has shown that you can encounter these AQIM guys anywhere between Nouakchott and Tunisia.

Behaviour is important. It was pointed out to us by the locals last trip that we were hanging around Tamanrasset area for too long (11 days, involuntarily), and that people were talking. Our guide told everyone we were going to Mali over Tin Zahouatine, Then we went over Timiaouine instead.
We encountered people in the Mali desert that could be best described as "Arab businessmen". The guide said after they left that they would now be on their cell phones making our presence known.
No reason to be paranoid, but every reason to be cautious.
Contrary to some list members, I don't think it adds to the excitement of being in the desert.

Did you change plans because the guide had made your route too well known or was this change part of the plan that your guide was aware of?

Back in November 2001 we were two bikes going from Djanet to Tam.
This was shortly after USA invaded Afghanistan and the rumors said that AQ had established training camps north of Djanet.

When we passed the fort in Serouenout we were stopped and the army asked a lot more questions then they usually do. They were very interesting in where we were going and where we would camp.
Anyway, we passed the fort and continued driving. Directly before it got dark we left the piste to camp. Since we hadn’t seen people for the entire and it was getting dark we parked pretty close to the piste.
After a few hours we saw the lights from a car approaching slowly. The piste is not that good and it must be a nightmare to drive after dark. We regretted that we had parked that close to the piste but decided not to move.
We sat in the dark and watched the car approaching very slowly, a few hundreds meters away the car stopped and we saw people (civilian) getting out. They where standing in the front of the car watching the piste (or our tracks). This happened several times and suddenly they stopped maybe 25 metres away from us. We could see that they carried guns and we sat totally quiet, partly behind a big rock. They where staring at the ground before they started to stare directly in our direction, luckily it was completely dark.
After a while they continued…

When we got to Ideles the next morning people knew that we were going to Tam via Assekrem. This info must have come from the soldiers in Serouenout. For some reason people were tense and it was not a very friendly place but we stayed for a few hours to get petrol (petrol station had no petrol and people told us there were no petrol in town). We tried to buy some food but it was impossible, everything was sold out. That’s strange, it has never happened to me before or after.

We sat beside the bikes trying to figure out what to do when we couldn’t get any petrol when some kids came along and started to chat. My friend told them that he would pay them if they could get petrol and after a while they brought us to a guy who sold us 13 liters. He didn’t seem happy about it…

Because of the shortage of petrol we decided to skip Assekrem and went to Tam.via In Amguel.


So why do I write this? What does it mean?
To be honest I don’t know but I learned a few things:

-Don’t tell people where you are going
-Park far from the piste
-Don’t camp before it’s getting dark
-Be careful with lights

This was the way our guide planned it - he didn't tell the gendarmes or even us that we were going over Timiaouine instead of Tin Zahouatin until we were well on our way.
The tour operator we contacted for assisting with finding the right guide broke a nervous sweat when I showed him pictures of my kids (after he had showed pics of his). "We will do our very best".
The guide in this area should be a touareg from Kidal.

Been quite a lot of military focus on this region in N and NE Mali recently. Hard therefore to tell whether strongholds have been dislodged. But the advice is well good - steer clear!. Again, if I were AQ-M i'd be thinking E Mauri.

Good thinking.
Honestly we also didn't know what was going on exactly. Or who to trust 100%.

Wouldn't it be nice if you could feel secure enough with your campfire that when strangers suddenly appear out of the dark you would simply be happy to have someone to drink tea with?

Was it ever like that in the Sahara?

Sophistication of AQIM
 

Here's how they spent some of the ransom money.

‘We don't want to become a second Afghanistan' - The Globe and Mail

"The insurgents had night-vision goggles, bulletproof vests and rocket-propelled grenades. The soldiers carried amulets and Koranic verses for protection. They were also outnumbered 3 to 1. Two hours later, almost half of the 60 soldiers were dead, and the rest were fleeing for their lives."

clearly no one is going to be able to get hold of a piece of paper which proves US-Algerian involvement in the kidnappings in 2003. And even if that piece of paper existed and was found, its authenticity would be quickly denied. So I understand why you asked the question Roman. The problem I have with Keenan's argument is that his proof rests with the argument that is was convenient for US + Algeria to get involved together - that mutual rewards would flow from their collusion. It is a huge leap to go from this convenience of outcome to claiming that there was actually direct collusion in making that outcome happen. And second problem I have with Keenan is that he makes no distinction between these huge leaps and simple real fact. So the US involvement in the kidnapping is presented by him in quite the same terms as the fact that Obama was elected as President. And the trouble with this is that he comes across as ungrounded and eccentric.

He needs to make a distinction between the leaps of faith and the real facts. There are inconsistencies in the kidnappings in 2003 which are quite pointed and revealing and these suggest certain things. The more we focus on inconsistencies and trying to understand them, the clearer the picture that will eventually emerge. I think that's what I meant by evidence.

Could well be
but Mauritania has done slightly more to clamp down on Aqim than Mali has
after the French family was attacked just before xmas 2007
the president and the imams were all denouncing violence
they have a good number of suspects behind bars
AFP: Mauritanian Al-Qaeda detainees renounce extremism

some of these guys may well be not guilty of more than associating with Aqim - which is natural since they are intermarrying and establishing themselves in the Mali desert for a decade or more now.

AQ can get about anywhere as we know but as for bases, I agree with priffe's assessment - they prefer to be in far north Mali. Even before it all kicked off the Mori army had bases up at Gallouiya and even way out at Chegga - + that patrol that got done at Tourine. So FWIW the army is up there (and often paying the price...)
Setting aside the supposed infiltration mentioned on the Globe report, what has the Mali army got based up north? Tessalit maybe? Apart from the army/militia raids mentioned (where we read they're so fatigued from the chase they rest up before the attack - and consequently get wiped out!) there is no great risk of resistance in north Mali.
I also suspect the FN Mali terrain is easier to get around on fast; it's been a contrabanders corridor for years. The big band of the Ourane erg in east Mori makes a speedy north-south transit difficult and I believe most wells north of Ouarane are occupied by nomads and close to those Mori bases.

When we crossed this area in 2006 (heading Mori-Mali-Alg) it was notable that the first track we saw after Richat was once we crossed into Mali days later - a clear piste ran N-S soon after the border but well before the salt piste (and not on any map of course).

While GSPC/AQIM have certainly raided into east Mori, based on all my conjecture I cant see them being based there, assuming that is what is being discussed.

Ch

Interesting discussion this.

This is what we seem to agree on:
1) N Mali is hot at the moment
2) AQ-M have their bases in N Mali and have settled in
3) its *objectively* the most dangerous place to go to, esp at the moment

This is where I seem to differ:
1) I expect that AQ-M won't make their next kidnapping in N Mali
2) I expect instead that they will make a move in Mauri

I'm sticking my neck out and given time we will be able to tell either way.

This is why I think N Mali is not the next place for an event to happen:
1) Its getting more difficult for AQ-M to operate in N Mali.
The US is donating kit:
BBC NEWS | Africa | US arms Mali to battle al-Qaeda
and so is Algeria:
Algeria and Mali Join Hands in Combating Terror
2) AQ-M have always been quite versatile and unpredictable with their hits. Who would have thought Tunisia was somewhere you'd be kidnapped and taken to N Mali? Not me. Thinking N Mali is thinking that AQ-M are predictable. To me, their record shows that they like to spread things around.
3) there's lots more tourists going through Mauri than N Mali - easy pickings.

The weakness in this argument are:
1) the water problem in E Mauri which Chris has pointed out and which may well be crucial + distance and terrain
2) the Mauri army may be better than Malian army - I just don't know - priffe has argued thet are.
3) N Mali is very convenient and this convenience might be worth making a stand for.

In the end we are all second guessing what AQ-M want - what they like the most. If they stay in Mali and have a scrap with the Mali army, then its a scrap with Mali that they're after. I don't have any proof for this, but my hunch is that they'd prefer not to have a conventional scrap. Perhaps I'm wrong but scrapping with Malian troops doesnt seem to fit ideologically or with their history. The only reason it seems to happen is that the Malian troops aren't leaving AQ-M alone in N Mali. Given enough heat from the Malian army, I think AQ-M are likely to find somewhere else.

Anyone got any feel for what was going down west of Serouenout with Alibaba? Any AQ-M reading this that can give us a heads-up? (And BTW my real name is Indiana Jones and I've retired to Pitcairn Island).

Could someone remind perhaps - any kidnappings at all took place in N Mali recently?

none - but some on the Mali-Niger border. On the other hand, 3 separate parties (4 if you include 2003) ended up in N Mali. So the assumption is that if you go strolling through the lions den, you'll get eaten.

To clarify: no one's ever been grabbed in north Mali as virtually no one goes there (same as east Mori north of Nema, IMO). But wherever you're grabbed by them in the Sahara, you seem to end up in north Mali -that is Mali well north of Timbuktu.

That BBC report ends with: "... He says the gift from the US and talk of co-operation with other countries in the region may mean the battle is about to begin in earnest..."

Good luck to them. It may explain the (mostly successful) Algerian army attacks on AQIM bands in the Grand Erg Occidental region lately. It could be interpreted as AQIM fleeing north Mali back to NE Alg to sit it out/step up local mayhem.

Ch

I wouldn't place a bet on where the next incident will take place. After the Tunisia kidnapping, it appears it could happen almost anywhere
If there hasn't been many kidnappings in Mali desert, one reason could be that there aren't that many tourists around to kidnap.
We somewhat reluctantly went through Kidal region in May, and it did feel strange being there while not far away there were westerners held for ransom.

If you read the above article, I think it shows how poorly trained, motivated and equipped the Malian army is. A posse was sent out from Timbuktu after the colonel was assassinated. This was a local militia that were angry because one of their leaders was murdered. They tracked down and killed a number of AQIM rebels. Then the Malian army took over the operation and it became a disaster.
I think the US (and Algerians) may be able to train and equip the Mali soldiers, but will they ever be motivated to fight in the hostile desert?

Bamako is far away and they don't seem to care much about Aqim - very different response when the rebels are touaregs looking for autonomy.

What Bamako should do is set up a division of touaregs to defend the desert, armed to the teeth and trained by the best ;o)

49 sentenced to death in Algeria.
Ennahar Online - Capital punishment in absentia for Droukdal and 48 defendants
Among them yet again Abdelmalek Droukdel.
Death sentences are not carried out in Algeria, but they may serve to make amnesty seem more palatable.
Droukdel showed weakness seeking support from the mufti
Al-Qaeda's Droukdel seeks religious support for terrorism (Magharebia.com)

What is the true relationship between Aqim desert and Aqim north? Same guys?
Sorry if I am straying OT.

Another news story out today from the BBC


BBC NEWS | Programmes | From Our Own Correspondent | New realities for ancient Timbuktu

Article on the BBC website:

BBC NEWS | Programmes | From Our Own Correspondent | New realities for ancient Timbuktu

R

Lotsa guys listening to the beeb...

Here's a recent congressional hearing dealing solely with the Aqim and desert security. I'd say it shows US sensitivity to the situation at hand. And there is no talk about kidnapping foreigners in collaboration with the Algerian government to achieve....huh, what was it now again mr Keenan?

Opening Remarks for Hearing on Counterterrorism in Africa (Sahel Region)
One-Clip Player (BETA)
"The United States can play a helpful supporting role in the regional effort, but we must avoid taking actions that could unintentionally increase local tensions
or lend credibility to AQIM’s claims of legitimacy. First and foremost, we must be sensitive to local political dynamics and avoid precipitous actions which exacerbate long-standing and often bloody conflicts.
AQIM’s ideology and violent tactics are antithetical to the vast majority of people in the region and the group’s ability to mobilize significant popular support for its objectives has been largely frustrated. It has failed to build and sustain meaningful alliances with insurgencies and criminal networks operating in the region. In fact, AQIM’s murder of a Malian military officer this summer, the unprecedented execution of a British hostage, and the murder of an American citizen in Mauritania may have caused some groups in Northern Mali to sever opportunistic economic arrangements occasionally established to supplement local groups’ efforts to survive in the region’s austere environment. By contrast, the perceptions of the United States have been generally favourable throughout the Sahel, even during periods when our popularity around the world declined. It is instructive that a 2008 poll involving 18 Muslim countries revealed that Mauritanians had the highest opinion of the United States.

The countries in the region continue to demonstrate the political will to combat terrorism and trans-national crime. They have explicitly stated that the Sahel’s security is the responsibility of the countries in the region. They have not asked the United States to take on a leadership role in counterterrorism efforts and have, in fact, clearly signalled that a more visible or militarily proactive posture by the United States would be counterproductive. We fully concur that the appropriate roles for the United States and other third countries with even more significant interests in the region must be to support regional security efforts while continuing to provide meaningful development assistance to the more remote areas. Moreover, we have emphasized that while the United States will do its part, the burden must be shared.

We recognize, however, that the security environment in the Sahel requires sustained attention to address a wide range of vulnerabilities and capacity deficits. There is insufficient capacity to monitor and protect immense swaths of largely ungoverned or poorly governed territory. The arid northern half of Mali alone covers an area larger than Texas. Niger is the poorest country in the world according to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and Mauritania and Mali rank near the bottom of the Human Development Index scale.
The vulnerability of the northern Sahel has not only led AQIM to seek out safe-havens in the region, but has also enabled the operations of a range of trans-national criminal networks. Criminal traffickers in human beings, weapons, and narcotics also exploit parts of the region. West Africa has emerged as a major trans-shipment area for cocaine flowing from South America to Europe. Narco-trafficking poses a direct threat to U.S. interests since the proceeds of cocaine trafficked through the region generally flow back to Latin American organizations moving drugs to the United States.
...
Although AQIM’s attempts to recruit in Mali and elsewhere in the Sahel have been largely unsuccessful, its limited successes in countries such as Mauritania can largely be traced to its ability to capitalize on the frustration among the young over insufficient educational or vocational opportunities. AQIM has also attracted recruits and material support from isolated communities or neighbourhoods in Mauritania and elsewhere that lack alternatives to schools, media or networking centers that promote violent extremism."

Hi priffe,
I don't like Jeremy Keenan cause he is a bullshit speaker. But one thing he wrote is correct. The Algerian government was the initiator of our kidnapping of 2003. This fact is true.

2007, after General Lamaris dead, he was the chief of the DRS, El Watan, a news paper which is normally the "speaker" for the government, wrote in an article that Lamari, respective Algerian authorities have been behind our kidnapping.

Regards

Ulrich

Involved, probably, but who and to what extent?
Algeria remains a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.

Here's an example of what Mauri is doing to secure the desert

Mauritania touts counter-terror operations near Mali border (Magharebia.com)

"Mauritanian security forces took reporters on their first-ever tour of counter-terrorism operations in the restive desert region of Adrar on Friday (November 13th), ANI reported.
Adrar is the country's most popular tourist destination but also the infiltration point for Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb terrorists from Mali. The 2008 kidnapping and subsequent beheading of 11 Mauritanian soldiers in Aklet Tourine spurred Mauritania to create a special military unit in the north-eastern province. Ever since the Mauritanian Special Forces (GSI) cordoned off the area, "all infiltration areas have been fully identified [and] illegal activities have come to a complete halt," said GSI Commander Sidi Ahmed.

To handle the difficult desert conditions, GSI operatives receive special survival training and learn to master driving in the sand dunes without GPS navigation. An outreach strategy with nomads has also benefitted military counter-terrorism operations in the sparsely-populated region, the GSI officer explained.

"To ensure that the nomads provide information to the army, not the enemy, a support program has been implemented. The GSI facilitates their access to water and medical care and buys their livestock, which dispenses with the need for them to make long trips to the city and ensures their income," he said. "Our intelligence capabilities are enhanced."


It is partly the tense relationship between touaregs and Mali government that makes the Mali desert unpatrolled and unsafe, allowing the Aqim to establish themselves.
The outreach program in Mauritania is probably more important than the military presence in the long run. This is what the Mali governement should do, too.

That is the way to do it (assuming it's not all spin and the GSI are not beating it out of the nomads and stealing their cams). Mori was the most nomadic desert country of all until 40 years ago and today still benefits from the govt and nomads being the same people - Moors. Any internal unrest is just the Moorish clans fighting it out for power as we see once in a while.

The thing is I suspect far N. Mali is a bit like the Libyan Desert - less arid sure but there are no wells or the ground water is too bad and so, apart from the salt mine, there are no nomads to outreach too until you get to the east where they're Tuareg. And as we know Tuareg have their own separate issues with the predominately Bambara Mali govt (who of course despise nomads). Same story in Niger (and up to a point, Sudan): it's post independence payback for the bad old slave trading days - hence the rebellions.

So good on the Moris. In Mali you get a feeling elements of the army are in business with AQIM - like that pile of coke that disappeared off the badly landed plane near Gao the other day...

Ch

Maybe change is real in Mauri
 

Another article dealing with the change in Adrar.
Mauritanian counter-terrorism effort gains ground in Adrar (Magharebia.com)

"Mauritania's measures to bring peace to its restive Adrar region, where terrorists beheaded 11 soldiers last year, are earning positive reviews in the local press and appreciation from the general public.
...
Experts say Adrar, an area known for tourist attractions, has been a key infiltration point for al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) terrorists from Mali. It is also a hotspot for trafficking of people and drugs. Army efforts to deal with such problems have included recruiting Adrar's young people for special anti-terrorism units that scour the region for illegal activity.
...
"Since the deployment of the anti-terrorism units to the area, AQIM-linked gunmen have stopped their attempts to ... cross onto Mauritanian soil," Major Sayyid Ahmed Ould Amhimed told the touring journalists in Atar.
...
Journalist Mohammed Al Moukhtar Ould Mohammed praised efforts to keep reporters and the public apprised of developments in Adrar.

"As journalists, we needed to know the details of what's going on in the Mauritanian desert," he said, adding that previously, the army alone gave accounts of events in the region.

"It seems that the national army has understood the importance of involving the press in the battle they are waging in the heart of the desert, something that will add a new dimension to the so-called 'War on Terror'," Mohammed added.

In connection with the counter-terrorism efforts in the Adrar region, Mauritania is also deeply troubled by the loss of the Paris-Dakar Rally, which was relocated in 2008 after four French tourists were slain in the desert. Eight of the rally's 15 stages previously took place in Mauritania, and the event brought enormous economic rewards."

wondering what the level of danger is in the Goundam - Gargando area... I need to go there in Feb / March, but I'm getting conflicting advice, both from people in the region and from Toubabs:-- some say Ok to go, others say dont even think about going. Anyone got any informationn/ advice to help make the decision? Thanks