Georgia / South Ossetia
 

Its all booting off now in Georgia ... The Georgian military have stormed into one of the two wannabe breakaway zones, South Ossetia ... and the Russians are vowing to defend their "compatriots". Russian peacekeepers have been among the casualties. President Medvedev has summoned his security council, PM Putin has vowed there will be a response from Russia. Georgian President Saakashvili has called up all reservists.

Might be an area to avoid.

Reminds me of Sudentenland.

Ukraine is next.

Yeah except the Georgians were silly enough to start this one.

Its very difficult to see the difference between South Ossetia and Kosovo. If Kosovo is granted independence because they are ethnically different to the Serbs, have been the victims of Serb military aggression, and the majority of the population wants to separate from the Serbs ... then you can basically say the same thing about the Georgians and the South Ossetians.

And the Russian logic, which quite frankly is very difficult to argue against, is that if its enough for Kosovo to be granted independence on those grounds, then its enough for South Ossetia as well.

Only I am not sure the Russians actually want South Ossetia to be independent. If they did that the North Ossetians (currently a part of Russia) may well want to join them. It would open up a can of worms for Russia's North Caucasus area, which is already messy enough as it is.

Abkhazia tho, is a different story ... far more likely to try and exist as an independent state. And far more likely to get Russian support on those aims. All they need is for the Georgians to be militarily aggresive against Abkhazia and all the criteria will be met. (Abkhazians would probably argue that the Georgians have been doing that in the disputed upper Kodori valley / gorge for years)

Probably unlikely now ... as the Russians have taken control of the border towns near Abkhazia, and have offered the Georgians an armistice, provided the Georgians sign a non-aggression pact with South Ossetia.

But going forward, its Abkhazia that the Russians (the government and the population) actually care about.

Braking news
 

Julian and Lorena

An Argentinean Traveller on an Africa Twin, his Girlfriend and his dog are stuck there.

The bike is broken and they are dealing to get a Carnet de Passage from the Argentina Automovil Club (they are asking to make it here in BA) because if not they can not cross to a safer country…..

From the Argentina Media:
"Está todo muy tenso: dormimos pensando en las bombas"

Russia says Georgia can forget about regaining lost territory.

Russia tells West to 'forget' Georgian rule in enclaves - Europe, World - The Independent

Russia threatens Poland with nuclear weapons strike.

Russia could strike Poland over U.S. shield - Ifax | World | Reuters

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I'm in Georgia at the moment - working, and it's completely safe (well, except for the standard of driving which is abyssmal!)

Even if you wanted to drive into the Russian Buffer Zone or into South Ossetia you would be stopped at the Russian Check-points & politely turned away. If you are transiting through Georgia then you wouldn't even know that there had been a problem.

But watch out for the herds of cows which wander over the main roads - people don't do fences here much... and in towns, watch out for all the BMW X5s and Hummers being driven by teenagers - almost every car has front-end damage - after a few days you can see why!

I went up into the mountains a few days ago - beautiful place, and excellent wine to be bought from family vineyards!

Tony