I'm trying to picture this. In the US, something like 40% of the adult population is deemed vulnerable by virtue of age and/or health condition. What would their lives look like--for the past 20 months and for an indefinite period moving forward? I can imagine myself in locked-down isolation all this time--not with any pleasure, but at least it's conceivable. I honestly can't imagine how the country itself would function with another 90+ million in the same position.

Yes. My reference to other viruses was merely supposed to illustrate my point. Sounds like it failed to do so.

With all due respect, you live in an island country, relatively wealthy, easily-isolated from the rest of the world, which instituted some fairly draconian lockdowns quite early--including the one which forbids you to visit your son. Furthermore, your NSW government claims an adult vaccine rate well over 90%, which is something much of the world will never, ever achieve. Could that have something to do with those recently-stable rates of illness and death?

It's a far cry from letting COVID burn through the population until natural immunity is reached. If you'd like to know more about what THAT would look like, read up on places where it's been more or less allowed to happen--New York in the early days, maybe India more recently, parts of Brazil at one point, coastal Ecuador for a while...

Well, that's probably enough verbiage out of me for the night. Safe journeys to us all!

I confused (a familiar state of affairs): if you're a Canadian national or resident I believe you've been able to enter the country with or without vaccination, although subject to shifting quarantine requirements. Am I wrong about this?

Assuming I'm correct, it seems to me there is a real possibility that this new variant will be found in Colombia, at which point you really *won't* be able to enter Canada. The effectiveness of this sort of measure might be up for debate--see the posts above--but unless you'd really rather stay in Colombia until that's all sorted, perhaps it's time to head home.

Personally, I'd be inclined to keep quiet about the whole lambs-to-the-slaughterhouse thing until safely thru immigration. Those guys can make anyone's life miserable if they choose to.

Mark

I think it was the correct approach, simply because that choice (imposing quarantines, restricting entry) is what has been used since time immemorial to combat epidemics and pandemics. I support that approach even though it caused me to be trapped in Tunisia for 5 weeks at the start of the pandemic.

What is different today - and it's a relatively recent difference - is the ease and low cost at which people can move around the world. As recently as the 1960s, international travel was expensive and slow (ships, not planes) and few people travelled internationally. When it became necessary to impose a quarantine, no-one really complained, because only a tiny fraction of the population was affected by the quarantine restrictions. Consider also that up until the 1960s, all adults had first-hand experience watching others in their community die from periodic epidemics of typhus, diphtheria, polio... all diseases that most people who are younger than 65 today have no experience of.

Today, international travel is common. Heck, I'm writing this post from southern Mexico, and I had breakfast this morning in Canada. None of my friends or family would consider such movement unusual. Before I retired, it was not unusual for me to be on 3 or 4 different continents in one week.

Hi Mark:

You are correct. It has been almost universally accepted during this pandemic that a citizen or permanent resident of a country has the right to return to their country of citizenship or permanent residence. The only exception to this that I am aware of has been Australia.

I don't think that person who posed the question / raised the topic ('tohellandback') is a citizen or permanent resident of Canada. He or she obviously has some social or occupational interest in going to Canada, but most likely is not a citizen or permanent resident... hence the reason why he/she can't travel to Canada. This is further complicated by the person not being vaccinated with a vaccine that has been accepted by Canada until very recently (he/she was vaccinated with Sinovac, a Chinese product of dubious efficacy).

Michael

I see your point. I tend to agree. However, if that 40% were vaccinated then it is a very, very small percentage that would be vulnerable to serious illness when they catch it. We have had one or two cases of fully vaccinated pro-morbidity individuals die of Covid.

Interestingly, our island has not really done anything to prevent the new mutants. We found the African one the same time as everyone else did.

Anyways, all the best to all.


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I wouldn't be so depressed; omicron strain x5 times more contagious than delta it displaces so it will likely take over the world much quicker..

Whilst the Omicrom variant may be more transmissible than, say, Delta there are initial thoughts at least that the symptoms are milder than Delta at least in non-vulnerable people - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988 - this link is to an interview with the doctor that first identified it in South Africa.

If correct, and applicable to otherwise vulnerable people, this could help in getting back to some sort of normality worldwide - as has been alluded to Spanish Flu still circulates globally but in a very much attenuated form so it doesn’t cause very high numbers of deaths.

Please note I am no virologist so it is all supposition.

All the reports I've seen so far recommend caution, typically saying that Omicron is highly contagious, possibly more so than the delta variant, but it is not yet clear whether Omicron will be able to displace Delta. Where did you see the definitive 5x figure?

The South African doctor who first identified the Omicron variant says in this Telegraph article the symptoms are unusual but mild, however the age demographics in South Africa are that older people only form about 5% of the population, so the effect on older people isn't so clear.

What the epidemiologists are praying for is a super contagious variant with mild symptoms. If this took over completely and spread across the world the dangerous part of the pandemic would be at an end.

As soon as the virus enters the human host it rapidly replicates itself and sometimes errors are introduced into the copying of the RNA, creating a variant (thousands to date). What seems to happen in a few very rare cases, rather than the patient fully recovering, the virus remains active, potentially mutating over and over again as time passes. Some of these mutations are 'drifts' in which a single change occurs, the worrying ones are 'shifts' with many changes and it's thought the 30+ changes to the protein spikes with Omicron variant happened in a single patient. That mutation probably happened somewhere in Africa which is why Morocco suspended flights from six southern countries, but it was South Africa that identified cases in its country through genome sequencing, and gets the blame, just as the UK got the flak over the Kent variant.

EDIT: Jay's post must have come in after I started to type, but our thoughts are the same.

We have been using face masks and border closures more or less for more then a year now, still we get the one variant, or wave, after another. It makes me thinks these steps are not working. The virus spreads over the whole world and if i get infected it doesn´t really care which nationality the one has who infects me.
I live in a island-country, people say just close the border and we don´t have any covid. Maybe that´s right but in our modern world no country is a island anymore, not even the geographic islands. With our modern way of living each country is depending on other countries. We can not close the borders for a couple of months, let alone years.
Each time a new variant get´s detected, countries put in place more restrictions but then it´s already too late because the new variant has already been spreading without us knowing it.

I've not come across anything much in the medical or scientific press or heard anything via my wife's medical grapevine about the Omicron version - other than its been identified and, at first glance, seems to have a number of mutations that give it different characteristics. However I know all about it, from its birthday to its shoe size and how its going to slash and burn its way across the planet leaving only death and misery in its wake, from the popular press. And the more popular the press the more speculative and sensationalist the reporting - exactly as usual!

I have no doubt there are a number of laboratories taking it to bits as I type this, and that in due course some actual information about it will be available, but for the moment it's all not far off guesswork. As Tim mentioned, it's in the nature of viruses to mutate so it's not surprising that new versions pop up from time to time. What we see are the few that prove to be viable. The many many mutations that don't give any survival value vanish without even being noticed. It's a jungle down there at cellular level and the virus is in a fight to the, well, not quite death as it's still a matter of debate whether they qualify as alive, but survival anyway. We're just collateral damage. The virus won't even know we exist.

My wife was making Christmas cards last week, and despite our best efforts there is now glitter round the entire house.

That's viruses for you, especially ones like this coronavirus which has a fairly long latency/asymptomatic period. People spread it before they know they're infected. Measures like closing borders *may* slow it a little, but once it's out there it's gonna get everywhere pretty soon, and there are no evolutionary pressures on this to get less dangerous so you can bet it's just going to get more and more infectious, Darwin #101.

The implications on overlanding are pretty clear - as it stands most borders are closed or about to be, whether or not this is an effective infection control measure. The value of vaccination, previously hoped to be the magic bullet, is in question as the virus mutates faster than scientists can roll out the vaccines. Really, it's difficult to see an end point in this (fingers crossed it isn't a doomsday one either, because another version of SARS killed 70% of those it infected). Certainly until medical science has got a handle on control it makes me reluctant to travel - I really don't want a big dose of vaccine-resistant covid out on the road in the middle of nowhere. I suspect travel within Europe will be viable come next spring, outside that into Asia definitely more questionable. As for Africa, it'll take a huge change of direction from vaccine-hoarding western countries before that has the slightest chance of getting on top of the problem.

You are correct: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...ion-sheet.html

If you are an unvaccinated citizen returning to Canada, you must go into quarantine upon arrival for two weeks. Perhaps that is expensive or difficult for the poster to arrange.

Or that things would be a lot worse if these steps were not taken.

Well, it's better to have Omicron sweeping the world than Unicron, I suppose

Omicron is an eyeopener and is bringing back attention to the world that a vaccine preventing only a severe course of C19 could be fastely turned into a blunt sword.

In Germany we have documented cases in Munich and Frankfurt. Düsseldorf and Essen are awaiting confermation of several suspected cases today(29/11/2021).

Belgium. Netherlands, Austria,Ctech Republic, Danmark, UK, Italy, Israel, HongKong, Australia and Canada have confirmed Omicron cases. Switzerland is waiting for confermation of a suspected case.

Sad to say that I have lost my desire for my RTW planning at the moment. Weird questions are sticking out.
Asking myself how and when can or should I start if I know that a validation of jab certificate of 9 months is in a worldwide discussion?
How will my travel costs rise if I be forced to go into quaratine for several days through border crossings or to fly into countries to get a another jab?
Do I need to do or change a route planing by avoiding infected areas and I how can I plan if healthcare or hygiene rules of different countries changes dynamically?
How will the people, the society in foreign countries react to me as traveller who is maybe seen as a potential risk of carrying a C19 infection?
How can I arrange getting a booster shot after the actual given booster shot? Will I need a 4th or 5th immunisation to reach protection against a severe course of C19? And hwo long will it last?
What about possible future mutations which could come up every time because the world countries have different levels of immunisation rates and periods?

I am everything else than a pessimistic guy by character and I believe into science for finding a worldwide satisfying solution against C19. But in the moment and surely caused by private circumstances I feel inside myself a growing discomfort tackleling my mind with questions about my near future, my execution of my RTW dream and of my idea of the rest of my life.