Quote:
Originally Posted by Laser Jock
Reminds me of Sudentenland.
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Yeah except the Georgians were silly enough to start this one.
Its very difficult to see the difference between South Ossetia and Kosovo. If Kosovo is granted independence because they are ethnically different to the Serbs, have been the victims of Serb military aggression, and the majority of the population wants to separate from the Serbs ... then you can basically say the same thing about the Georgians and the South Ossetians.
And the Russian logic, which quite frankly is very difficult to argue against, is that if its enough for Kosovo to be granted independence on those grounds, then its enough for South Ossetia as well.
Only I am not sure the Russians actually want South Ossetia to be independent. If they did that the North Ossetians (currently a part of Russia) may well want to join them. It would open up a can of worms for Russia's North Caucasus area, which is already messy enough as it is.
Abkhazia tho, is a different story ... far more likely to try and exist as an independent state. And far more likely to get Russian support on those aims. All they need is for the Georgians to be militarily aggresive against Abkhazia and all the criteria will be met. (Abkhazians would probably argue that the Georgians have been doing that in the disputed upper Kodori valley / gorge for years)
Probably unlikely now ... as the Russians have taken control of the border towns near Abkhazia, and have offered the Georgians an armistice, provided the Georgians sign a non-aggression pact with South Ossetia.
But going forward, its Abkhazia that the Russians (the government and the population) actually care about.
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