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-   -   Is there really an (general) economic crisis? (http://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hubb/the-hubb-pub/there-really-general-economic-crisis-59853)

estebangc 24 Oct 2011 18:31

Is there really an (general) economic crisis?
 
Rolls-Royce Posts Record Sales In First Half Of 2011

Swiss watch industry sees record sales for 2011

I have always thought that in general terms, but especially in the so-called economic crisis, money worked on the basis of the communicating vessels of Blaise Pascal, or paraphrasing a famous phycisist, "money can neither be created nor be destroyed: it can be transformed from one form to another or transferred from one POCKET to another" (change only money ca be created by the bank from nothing, except for your commitment to pay it back in [the form of a] 20 years [slavery]). I mean, your loose is their gain, just that. No less purchasing power in this world, it is only you can buy less 2nd hand crap while others will buy more RR. More harshly, your grandpa will have to sell his golden teeth at a ridiculous price since his pension fund collapsed and the guy fleed to Grand Cayman and so that others buy their Patek Philippe Grande Complication watch. What I mean is that "there is only a crisis for the many negatively affected", but not at all of those who are making the huge profit (exactly equivalent to those other's looses).

My girlfriend's best friend was fired today, because the (very stupid missmanaged) economic crisis we Spaniards are suffering. This looks like the film the "Highlander": "only one can survive", the richest among the rich (aka the big banks and the like). Then I was reading the news about the great success of the luxury industry in this times of recession. And I was considering...

Am I the only one thinking that this sort of economic crisis are just planned, guided, designed well in advance in order to destroy all the middle class and the small and medium enteprises?

Just a thought, I am not going to stop working tomorrow, I won't cancel my bank account or credit card, or will stop refuelling in the gas station, nothing will be changed, but it seems to me that this predatory system is already going too far and things may change abruptly as it has always happened all along the human history...

MarkShelley 24 Oct 2011 20:58

An interesting theory.
Have you watched Zeitgeist? It claims that the Worlds governments are effectively powerless. Power lies with the banks. Watch it if you can. It is very thought provoking.

Keith1954 24 Oct 2011 21:38

The Game (Capitalism) is up mates. IT'S BLOODY OVER!

I won't go into my background, there's no point. BUT just trust me, if you want to go for a long overseas ride, then DO IT NOW .. before it's too late!

Take a look at this for a tiny-weeny introduction into what's coming your/our way: The Crash Course

See you on the other side.

.

spooky 24 Oct 2011 22:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkShelley (Post 353551)
An interesting theory.
Have you watched Zeitgeist? It claims that the Worlds governments are effectively powerless. Power lies with the banks. Watch it if you can. It is very thought provoking.

That's the one you have to get hold on to... very much recommended to watch !

Socks 24 Oct 2011 23:00

Hey estaban, should this poll be split into regions of the world?

?c?

spooky 24 Oct 2011 23:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith1954 (Post 353556)
The Game (Capitalism) is up mates. IT'S BLOODY OVER!

I won't go into my background, there's no point. BUT just trust me, if you want to go for a long overseas ride, then DO IT NOW .. before it's too late!

See you on the other side..

well yeah... you are dead right...

wasn't there a study from the MoD a few years back, where they tried to find out where and how future threat's are to be spotted.. ?

subserviently the result wasn't a 3rd world war or such... no the most likely threat's will be riots and demonstrations looting and hunger of the masses of poor and mistreated population all over in any country, but specially in the so called industrialised world... yeah didn't we just see the start of it... just a little taster in London this year... just look at the growing "occupied movements"... it's just the beginning of much more to come...
anyway the MoD study recommend to target just this in the coming years as the main threat politicians have to deal with...

YES... I only can confirm... you are right... "DO IT NOW .. before it's too late!" rather sooner than later...

MountainMan 25 Oct 2011 01:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by estebangc (Post 353541)
Am I the only one thinking that this sort of economic crisis are just planned, guided, designed well in advance in order to destroy all the middle class and the small and medium enteprises?


In short, planned - no, predictable - yes.

The starting point is the following quote:

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing. "

We, the people, vote in the governments that allow this all to happen.

Bad governments make bad policies reacting to short term incentives.

The people (who are consumers) live beyond their means and push the government and their policies to their limit to allow them to do so.

Too much debt in government, too much debt in business, too much debt for individuals.

Normal economic shocks happen and an overly burdened government, business, or person will collapse under the weight.

Threewheelbonnie 25 Oct 2011 06:10

Sorry guys have to disagree with all the doom and gloom. I work in manufacturing just over 100 miles from where the industrial revolution started. We've seen it all before. The US civil war cut off our raw material, we switched to army blankets made from rags (recyling before the word was invented) even though people starved during the switchover. The money markets wents bad in the 1930's and we suffered. Same again in the 80's but the recovery was in China and India.

Manufacturing here is now lean and only has the high value jobs. No recession here, we can't make the stuff fast enough. The wealth stays here too.

This recession is just the movement of low value, low skill jobs in other sectors and the same in manufacturing that was falsely protected in the '80's. Sure, the bankers will scream as their 2 hour a week paper shuffling jobs are moved to India and the media will sulk as paper goes the way of the dinosaurs but people adapt. India call centres are now for the Indian market who has money and love their accents. The printers will have to move into IT or plumbing or something someone else can't do remotely for less.

It's just a recession caused by a reshuffle of wealth made worse by panic spread by better communication. It will end when people decide to end it. Resources are not short, peak oil, when we'll have the most ever is 20 years away. The next recession in the 2030's could be about resources when all those Indian insurance companies have power cuts and realise they've sold pyramid schemes.

Andy

*Touring Ted* 25 Oct 2011 06:55

There are just too many people in this world.... It's not sustainable.

Everything has to be fought for. Jobs, resources, land, fishing rights etc etc.

It's not going to get better until something DRASTIC is done about world population. If we don't sort that ourselves, then it will be left to war, famine or an epidemic to correct.

:frown:

johan&ils 25 Oct 2011 09:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Keith1954 (Post 353556)
The Game (Capitalism) is up mates. IT'S BLOODY OVER!

I won't go into my background, there's no point. BUT just trust me, if you want to go for a long overseas ride, then DO IT NOW .. before it's too late!

Take a look at this for a tiny-weeny introduction into what's coming your/our way: The Crash Course

See you on the other side.

.

I agree with that! We leave in December for the American continent, comming from Europe.
Wathever their will be happening, it will be Something. I believe there will be a big chance in the world. For me, I think it is important to make shure that you know what is really important for you and to stick on that. I mean, do you know your values in live? Are you able to chance it? Can you hold on on it when al your "material power" is gone? Each morning when I wake up, I try to do it without "craving" for something. Even not a cup of coffee.
Beside that, I am shure that the power in the world for this moment is on a very small group of families, how al depending on each other. And I believe that we, concience-(travel)-people can chance this power, if we hold on on our one values. bier

leevtr 25 Oct 2011 15:08

If the press would shut the f**k up about it ......
 
....Things would be nowhere near as bad as they are.

The most damaging factor is the ' FEAR FACTOR '.

If the TV and press were to shut up about it, things would be nowhere near as bad, people would just go about their lives, treat themselves to the odd little luxury, new car or kitchen, and things would move, money would circulate, and so on.

But, as we all know, the only news is BAD NEWS, so looks like my wish wont be granted!!

estebangc 25 Oct 2011 16:05

So, we all agree: some people say it was planned in advance, others vote is was planned now! (SORRY, I MEAN NO, OBVIOUSLY).

I’ll have to watch Zeitgeist, although I tend to avoid thinking too much: do not watch TV, no read papers, only read some news on line. It gets too sad. Recommendation: documentary “Money is Debt”, about the basis of the capitalist system.

Great approach: go for the trip, a big tsunami is getting ready to hit.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Socks (Post 353561)
Hey estaban, should this poll be split into regions of the world?

?c?


I see your point. I am not meaning general growth, but equitative growth: are rich Indians becoming extremely rich while poor Indians struggling so much to buy 1 kg of rice due to food speculation? Macroeconomic statistics would hide huge micro-economic differences. Isn’t it sad?

Food speculation: 'People die from hunger while banks make a killing on food'
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global-development/2011/jan/23/food-speculation-banks-hunger-poverty

Low and middle class was affected here one way; a different and much harder way on other areas.
Quote:

Originally Posted by MountainMan (Post 353569)
In short, planned - no, predictable - yes.


Same same, but different? Stupid example: let’s say you work in real estate and you have a crystal ball to know there will be an earthquake in 2 years. You start buying, you fuel the bubble as much as you can. Then you sell 2 months before the earthquake and make huge profits (1st round). After the earthquake, when everybody needs the cash, you buy really cheap again (2nd round of profit). Isn’t it the same predictable and planned?

Quote:

Originally Posted by *Touring Ted* (Post 353579)
There are just too many people in this world.... It's not sustainable.
:frown:

True, there is only a cake to share. Apart from inefficiency dealing with the resources available and the fact that the West is in regression, some dudes are just taking your part. I mean that the gap top-base of the pyramid is getting bigger anywhere, not only here in the West, but everywhere (I mean proportionally).

I find extremely sad and disgusting to see how OUR States get to the “markets” to sell OUR debt as if they were prostitutes, selling our future pensions, kids schooling, etc, so that the politicians (aka the pimps) can pay their debt to those “richest of the rich” who fund their campaigns (of all parties). Oh yes, as we say in Spanish, “estás cogido por los cojones”.

Quite interestingly, in our very own crisis in Spain, all SME are falling down, receiving no support by the government, while the big ones get non-refundable credits paid by all of us. “To big to fail”, funny story they want us to believe.

What about general population? Let me write even longer: Common Law (UK and ex colonies) is based in jurisprudence, but (our) continental system is based on regulations, and far back in Roman Law. Yes, these guys understood justice and invented almost all, included the mortgage: if you cannot pay the credit, then we get the property (real state), end of the story. Well, in my beloved country, mortgages are not any more like that: you were fired and can’t pay any more, then you give the house back. End of the story? Nooooo… Your house will be valued again (1st time value was inflated, so you got a bigger mortgage) and it happens it’s worth, let’ssay, ½ its original value. Oh man, you still have to pay more: no job, no house, but a debt to pay.

And it is more important that the capital keeps on making money, squeezing most of the population, than providing a shelter. And still we accepted, we that supposedly decide who’s going to the ruling your f**king nation, country, homeland! Isn’t it amazing?

Sorry to be so long, when I was in Nepal last December I wrote to my friends saying: nobody is going to do anything, nobody will go to the City Hall to say enough? I seems it finally happened.

PS: Ruled by bipolar investors: (today) markets are very optimistic after the European Central Bank said that it will buy Greek debt. (tomorrow) Desperation in the markets, massive looses after Standard & “Richs” said Greek debt is “junk”. AREN’T WE EVER GOING TO TAX STOCKS BUY/SALES TO STOP SPECULATION?????? You pay taxes for every damn transaction of property and you do not pay for buying/selling stocks???? Come on… (I've got friends working in banking, I am not meaning anyone in the field is evil, only that it needs more regulation).

Keith1954 25 Oct 2011 16:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by leevtr (Post 353614)
The most damaging factor is the ' FEAR FACTOR '.

If the TV and press were to shut up about it ..

But, as we all know, the only news is BAD NEWS, so looks like my wish wont be granted!!

@ leevtr – Emotions (fear, lust, envy .. indifference, et al) has nothing to do with our current predicament. Forget all about that stuff.

It’s the mathematics my friend. You just cannot argue with the maths. I don’t care about the economists, the banksters, the politicians, the press, the financial commentators and all the doom-and-gloomers out there. Forget all about them too.

See, you just cannot escape, change or alter the basic principles of simple Grade 5 arithmetic. It really isn't any more complex than that.

I really hope I'm wrong btw.

Time for me to STFU, I think! :frown:

PS - THIS LINK is a highly appropriate to the issue.
.

estebangc 25 Oct 2011 18:41

Coming back to the Cash "Pocket Swap" approach.
 
If my maths and data are correct (Forbes does not publish any more this "useless" info), the 25 richest people in 1997 made a total of 381.7 Billion USD.

The 25 richest in 2011 made 793 billion. That means 207% total increase, or 5,36% steady average annual increase. Those look quite good results, don’t they? So, is it possible that all that cash came from someone’s else savings?

I should quit this line of thinking and focus on trips, brakes and valve clearance… it's much more enjoyable. My head’s been a little too hot yesterday and today (I knew someone else was fired here in Switzerland too :frown:).

But it’s nice to share some other thoughts here as well.

Birdy 25 Oct 2011 20:23

I worked on a car today that costs £74000. When you open the door, the steering wheel moves upwards eight inches to accomodate your hefty diabetes inducing gut, then when you put the key in, it moves down to stop you straining your weak and useless excuses for arms. I tried to move the 4.5 litre waste of finite resources forwards later, and couldn't find the gearstick, before realising it had paddles behind that oh so accomodating wheel, because changing gear traditionally takes time and effort that our busy days just don't have any room for nowdays. Then I had to reverse it back to where I started, and was surprised when the behemoth spoke to me, and blared through the workshop too. It told me to watch out for obstacles, because the manufacturers probably didn't want to get sued for not warning me things could be behind me, or warning the hypothetical pedestrians that walking into a moving car could hurt.

Being fit and healthy, using old technology that works, and using the neck and eyes that we used to use to look where we were going, not to mention the brain held up there, is so 20th century. We can buy our way out of our stagnant pit. Can't we?

While I was working on this car (if you are interested, a new rear bumper at a cost of £687 (part only) and a rear left hand light cluster at a cost of £224 part only) I was listening to the radio. Japanese Ragweed was the hot topic, which was described as 'terrifying,' 'your worst nightmare,' and 'something that should never happen to anyone.' I daydreamed happily about sending these useless mouths to Afghan to teach them the meaning of terror. The news was describing a bunch of overpaid and over important stuffed suits with nice houses as 'rebels,' for mildly dissenting over irrelevant financial matters. 'Fluff you Che, get out of here Von Stauffenberg, up yours Lenin, the tory conference is here and they are rebelling while they eat their cakes and drink their tea.' I turned to a commercial station, and was told that my 'Shopping Soulmate' is coming soon in town. It's a new shopping centre, like the old one, but bigger, and sells more stuff so we can work harder, for less money, for longer, to buy more stuff we don't need. I hope if I have a soulmate out there, she's not such a b**ch.


It sickens me that £74000 of intrinscially worthless paper give the owner of this car respect in our society. We seem to be progressing with no regard for where we are going, or slowing down to ask 'why?'

I'm a little bit sick of a society that is of no more innate worth than the corrupt and childish fuel that runs and motivates it. I've barely set foot back here and I want to leave again.

Oh, but I can't yet, as the bits of paper have taken a mind of their own, and the men in control of them have lost that control. While somehow they still get richer....? real life; stranger than science fiction.

I think that was my way of saying, 'yes, I fully agree with you Mr Estebangc!'

I'm off traveling for a long period, then returning to Spain to live on my mountain, herd goats and sit at my typewriter until the planet chokes on our filth and sends us the way of the dinosaurs.

Birdy

(Btw, it's good to be back people!)


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