Islamist activity in the Sahara in relation to travel security

[priffe]

They would probably shoot you at sight then, if kidnapping wasn't an option. Like they did with the French journalists when car broke down. But they are slowly being evicted from Mali.
Yesterday Belmohktar's second, a Mauritanian, was killed by French troops west of Tessalit.
Serval | Mali : le bras droit de Belmokhtar tué par l'armée française
And three French soldiers had their ear drums pierced by a mine on the outskirts of Kidal.
Hope they can get to Abdelkrim and his gang of tuareg jihadists.
One had hopes that tuaregs would be wise enough to come together to make their region secure and able to prosper. If the rebellion has taught us anything, it is that, sadly, they are very far from capable of governing their own land.

[cruiser guy]

Originally Posted by priffe

They would probably shoot you at sight then, if kidnapping wasn't an option. Like they did with the French journalists when car broke down.

That is definitely a possibility. I tend to think though, that they would not go out looking for Westerners to kidnap in that case. It would be more crimes of opportunity or simply being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Both of those scenarios can happen elsewhere as well so it then levels the playing field.

One need only to look at the guy in Paris who shot a newspaper photographer. That's not confined to just areas where the AQIM hang out.

Personally I'd be more comfortable with the chance I might be in the wrong place at the wrong time then having the AQIM out hunting for me for a ransom demand.

Remember, all those kidnapped for ransom don't get out alive all the time either. These guys will bump you off once you are no longer worth their while to hold you for cash.

[Richard Washington]

Originally Posted by cruiser guy

Remember, all those kidnapped for ransom don't get out alive all the time either. These guys will bump you off once you are no longer worth their while to hold you for cash.

The first sentence is true - not all make it back. But I don't think the evidence of the many kidnappings in the Sahara since 2003 squares with your second sentence CG. My take is that the executions of Saharan hostages have usually had an ideological/political edge to them. It hasn't been the case that no cash = execution. In the case of the AREVA mine hostages, for example, AQIM were prepared to wait 3 years for the cash.

Also noteworthy, and as you've already discussed, you are very likely to be killed if you put up a fight early on in the drama. Thereafter (meaning a few months on) AQIM have tolerated escape attempts, shouting matches, defiance and so on without executing those concerned. The Austrian couple who were kidnapped in Tunisia and held in N Mali tried to escape several times. Once they got to a nearby village. They were not executed.

[Magoo2]

I still reckon that an insurance payment by all bikers going on a trip that covers even/only the costs of hiring an "independent negotiator" to establishes what "the demands" really are. You hear of all the families in distress (listen to the French families) with their husbands/fathers/sons being taken, not getting clear information of any demands made ie cash, prisoner release/exchange, amnesty etc I accept that prisoner swops have to be at Government levels of negotiations but at least one would then know something concrete is happening.

I hear that at a meeting in Kuwait that it was discussed that anyone who pays a ransom can/should be criminally charged.

[Richard Washington]

Originally Posted by Magoo2

I still reckon that an insurance payment by all bikers going on a trip that covers even/only the costs of hiring an "independent negotiator" to establishes what "the demands" really are.

If I were taken hostage I would be pretty keen to have that insurance paying for the negotiator, if not more. Being held for even a few weeks must be a very, very difficult thing and one that is hard to imagine without the incident actually happening to you. But it is also true that having such insurance is accommodating the kidnapping process - it is ramping up the business model of the kidnappers. It will, for one, institutionalise well paid middle-men for example. It will soon become in the interests of the middle men that kidnappings occur from time to time.

Sadly the only way to ensure that you won't get kidnapped in the Sahara is not to go to the Sahara. Even then, the range of operations of the kidnappers will simply expand in response - as it did in the Indian Ocean piracy issue. There was a time when that piracy was just off the Horn of Africa and only in the transition seasons (March and October) when the monsoon winds are not strong. But then, when navies began making the piracy more difficult in the immediate Horn of Africa, it expanded to the Indian Ocean even south of the equator - e.g. Seychelles. In the case of the Sahara kidnappings, the expansion has taken the form of an arc of kidnapping extending from Chad, Nigeria, Cameroon through Niger, Algeria and Mali and on to the Atlantic coast in Mauri. That's a lot of country. My feeling is that it will take many years for the kidnapping business to recede. So long as we have the ungoverned regions like Libya and N Niger, we will have no improvement. The regime change in Libya was a naive move by NATO. It could not have been worse timing for security in North Africa as a whole.

[cruiser guy]

Originally Posted by Richard Washington

The first sentence is true - not all make it back. But I don't think the evidence of the many kidnappings in the Sahara since 2003 squares with your second sentence CG. My take is that the executions of Saharan hostages have usually had an ideological/political edge to them. It hasn't been the case that no cash = execution. In the case of the AREVA mine hostages, for example, AQIM were prepared to wait 3 years for the cash.

I agree, if they think there is a chance to get some cash they will keep holding you. If there is NO chance of any cash forthcoming they will either dump or execute hostages.

If there is NEVER a chance for financial profit I think the total number of kidnappings would decrease. In that case those at risk would be political or ideological targets not your average guy out on vacation (unless they come from or are connected with a country/concern the kidnapper has issues with).

Originally Posted by Magoo2

You hear of all the families in distress (listen to the French families) with their husbands/fathers/sons being taken, not getting clear information of any demands made ie cash, prisoner release/exchange, amnesty etc I accept that prisoner swops have to be at Government levels of negotiations but at least one would then know something concrete is happening.

I think the French have a reputation for paying ransoms which means the French have a higher chance of being kidnapped for financial ransoms. The same goes for any businesses operating in the Sahara.

Then you have things like InAmenas where they attack a gas plant, that's an ideological target, cash is not important and hostages lives are not important. They simply are out to make a political statement.

[priffe]

Mauretania and Chad are good destinations to visit now if you wish to see the Sahara.
Point-Afrique Voyages
There are tourists in Djanet at the moment, but still waiting to hear if the plateau will be open this season.

I think the French are in for the long haul now, not leaving north Mali to the Minusma African forces. And the Malian army is still in shambles. But the French just signed a counter-terrorism deal with Mauretania Mauritania, France sign security agreement | Magharebia
also working with Dakar and Bamako
I think the jihadist criminal networks are facing a hard time now in Mauretania, Mali and the rest of West Africa. Remains the north of Nigeria, most of Niger and Libya that are out of control. If something positive happened with the Western Sahara situation, that would also improve security.
And lead to open borders between Morocco and Algeria. Which would be a wonderful opportunity for desert travel, while also posing new security challenges.

[Richard Washington]

Britain has submitted a draft resolution to the UN Security Council that calls on countries to prevent the payment of kidnap ransoms to extremist groups, like al-Qaeda, which have earned hundreds of millions of dollars from such crimes.

Don’t pay ransoms to terrorists, UK urges | News24

My reading is that hostage negotiations will become more sticky in the future, even if the resolution isn't taken forward. If the UN resolution is successful, for the tactic of not paying ransoms to have the effect of driving down the kidnapping rate, someone, somewhere who is kidnapped will have to sit for a long time to prove the point. I wouldn't want to be that person.

[cruiser guy]

Originally Posted by Richard Washington

...someone, somewhere who is kidnapped will have to sit for a long time to prove the point. I wouldn't want to be that person.

NO ONE "want's" to be that person but everyone would be grateful if the kidnapping rate/threat was severely reduced by the non-payment of ransom demands.

[steview]

The BBC's Frank Gardner on payments made for hostages. Lots of interesting stuff in the report including

They believe the number of groups doing it is up and so is the going rate - from $4m per hostage in the Sahara in 2010, to well over $5m today.

They point to recent events in Mali as the clearest illustration yet.

This year's fighting there followed last year's near-takeover of the whole country by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) - an al-Qaeda franchise grown rich on ransoms paid for Spanish, Swiss and Italian hostages.

When French forces entered caves abandoned by jihadist fighters in the north of Mali, they found a letter from the regional al-Qaeda commander Abdulmalik Droukdal to his counterpart in Yemen, in which he declared that "most of the battle costs were met by spoil from the hostages".

[priffe]

Well it is a damn shame that they are paying out these HUGE ransoms; that policy is bound to draw attention from entrepreneurs all over the globe, not least in the Sahara and Sahel where making a fortune in any other way seems near impossible, and feeding your family and at times even mere survival is a challenge.
At least this time they are not just handing over the cash; they are also going after the crooks. Enfin.
Just wish they could do something about SW Libya also, preferrably empower the local good forces to throw the bandits out. Or that will become the new world capital of Breaking Bad. Well there is also Benghazi. Hopefully those guys will go after each other instead of bothering peaceful travellers.

And south of Algeria, who knows what is really going on? No tourists, no journalists, no foreigners, noone is keeping an eye on the situation. Statoil released a report on the In Amenas incident, that showed they haven't understood much, going to rely even more on private security providers.

Bouteflika is dying in Algiers, like Castro in Havana. French and Americans are trying to deal with the ageing leadership of the country, the guys who started a revolution half a century ago. Same thing happened all over Africa, but all those guys are long gone, Mandela being the last, and he was buried the other day. Only parallell to Algeria is Cuba in that sense. Something is about to change, quite soon, but what is it? What is the new thing that will emerge?

[Richard Washington]

The In Amenas gas plant crisis happened a year ago tomorrow. Alg is still struggling to put security in place and get foreign workers back on site. Meanwhile there are reports of what else is happening in the country - for example:
"Military sources, cited by independent Algerian daily El-Watan, indicated recently that 20 000 troops had been deployed along the country's eastern and southern frontiers, with another 1 500 combing the region day and night, assisted by continuous air cover.
"Military command has sent the majority of its aircraft to Ouargla and Tamanrasset [in southern Algeria] as the main bases for intervention," said one of the sources.
Helicopters and Seeker II drones equipped with hi-tech reconnaissance equipment are able to carry out surveillance missions and precision air strikes.
There are indications that Algeria's heightened security arrangements are paying off, with several Islamist convoys having been destroyed between Tamanrasset in the far south and Illizi in the southeast, according to the military source."

Fears linger at Algeria gas plant | News24

The last paragraph is helpful in understanding the issues of travel in the south. It is clear that the last thing the Alg Military want is tourists travelling around on pistes between Djanet/Illizi and Tam.

[Richard Washington]

There is news of another land mine exlosion in Mali - this one 30 km from Kidal.
More details here:

5 injured as UN vehicle in Mali hits landmine | News24

And another posting on this thread about land mines in Mali.
http://www.horizonsunlimited.com/hub...-35#post442577

Until recently, it was thought that Mali is clear of mines.
Now we know Mali is not free of landmines.
The reason for the landmines are in Mali now relates almost certainly to the insurgency of AQIM and its splinter groups (whether or not AQIM placed the mines).
The landmine posting here is highly relevant to overlanders notwithstanding the lack of current travel in N Mali because
a) landmines remain active for decades
b) information on them is scarce.
c) The area was thought to be mine free

[Richard Washington]

The Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa have claimed responsibility for kidnapping 5 people, 4 from the Red Cross, on the piste from Gao to Kidal.
"Thanks to God we seized a 4X4 [vehicle] of the enemies of Islam with their accomplices," Mujao official Yoro Abdoulsalam said, confirming it was the ICRC team reported missing in recent days.

More here:
Mali: Jihadists claim kidnap of ICRC team | News24

[priffe]

So Red Cross thought an escort was optional.

Here some tidbits about kidnappings: who, how, etc.
Interesting how they have set up chains of informants
with hotels, agences de voyages, etc, to receive
information. Using money and intimidation to get
what they want. Perhaps better NOT make reservations?! :/
Diplomates enlevés : Les difficiles négociations d'Alger - Actualité - El Watan

This is especially damaging as any agency or individual guide/driver
may be targeted. And all they have to provide is a time and location.