AQIM activity in the Sahara in relation to travel

[Richard Washington]

Mokhtar Belmokhtar has been sentenced to death by Algerian courts for behaving badly. He has twice been sentenced to life in prisonment and Algeria has had a moratorium on the death penalty since 1993. The sentence was handed down in absentia so not much has changed really.

[sherifsalem]

Magharebia link

Al-Qaeda issues demands for captive gendarme (Magharebia.com)

[priffe]

Here's a rundown on all foreigners held hostage around Africa at this moment
FACTBOX-Foreigners kidnapped in Africa - AlertNet

Reuter's analysis suggesting abruptly ending Qhadafi's rule wasn't a good idea
Sahel scrambles to avert slide "into hell"
"Chadian General Adoum Ngare Hassan told a security conference in Morocco at the weekend that if Maghreb states span out of control their neighbors could face "a descent into hell".
The general, responsible for protecting Chad's borders with Niger, Libya and Sudan, suggested the West bore much of the responsibility for regional disarray through its support for the revolt in Libya, a country now risking "general collapse".
While there is agreement in the international community on the urgent need to help Sahelian states with security, in practice it is proving very hard, analysts and diplomats say.
The principal reason is a long-standing rift between Arab Maghreb neighbors Algeria and Morocco, a fact that frustrates many in the region because by common consent these two countries are best qualified to help their weaker southern neighbors.
Both countries are heavyweight intelligence and military powers, but they are also rivals, and an impasse in relations means they do not operate the sort of joint security cooperation in their Saharan backyard that could really make a difference.
Speaking on the sidelines of the conference, Jean-Francois Daguzan of France's Foundation for Strategic Research told Reuters: "If there is no Algerian-Moroccan agreement on the security of the Sahel, there cannot be true security, simply because the terrorists will use this fundamental fault. It's a major problem.""

Therefore the ongoing efforts to resolve the Algerian-Moroccan conflict, at the heart of which is the WS impasse.

[Richard Washington]

I have been wondering when AQIM would be implicated in the Taureg rebellion in Mali. Following the apparent success of the rebellion over the last few days (taking 5 towns in a few days - see Tuaregs attack 5th town in Mali | News24)
the Malian government is now complaining about the involvement of AQIM on the Taureg side.
Mali slams Qaeda as rebels launch attacks | News24

Its not much of a surprise and some saw this coming many years ago. Mali has never seemed properly bothered by AQIM. If they perceive a Taureg/AQIM aliance, it might be one of the few things that get them to dedicate the resources needed to combat AQIM.

If the Tauregs and AQIM succeed in N.Mali, then there is only a bit of Chad across that latitude left for AQIM affiliates to deal with. That strip would cover many countries and even more longitudes - even if there isn't one mastermind behind the project.

From the perspective of Saharan travel, the good thing is that it will now be harder for Mali to ignore AQIM. But I can see that AQIM and the Tauregs have several reasons to be allies and, on balance, I think this latest insurgency in Mali is taking us further away from an easy return to the desert, even if viewed a year or more into the future.

[priffe]

What needs to be clarified is if there is a growing jihadism within the touaregs.
Nord-Mali : qui sont les rebelles du MNLA ?
There is the 'touareg islamiste' Abdelkrim - with his own katibah - he is a cousin of rebellion leader Ag Ghali. The big question is where Ag Ghaly is at - ideologically. Until that is clear I would like to think that touaregs are by nature and tradition anti-fundamentalist, meaning tolerant and pragmatic. If they form a temporary strategic alliance with Aqim, well maybe. In the long run, they won't co-habit well.
From Bamako we can only expect propaganda.

There is an obvious (to me) 'solution' - the next malian president should elect a touareg as governor for Kidal region, like Issofou did for Agadez in Niger. Then the touaregs can fight it out between themselves. Problem 'solved'! But one wonders if Bamako will ever have the guts to do that.
Of course I could be totally wrong about all of this.

[Chris Scott]

From Bamako we can only expect propaganda

That's how I would read it. For the Mali govt you'd think there is much to be gained by linking the dreaded 'AQIM' to any Tuareg rebellion. The later would otherwise have some support overseas as a legitimate uprising - as has been the case in the past.

The news24 report mentions Tuareg have attacked Lere - that is quite a way SW of Timbuktu, iirc...

I like to think AQIM don't have much chance catching on in north Chad. It was the Tubu to caught and handed over El Para after all (or so it was said) - even if that was nearly 9 years ago. Just getting to that bit in this book which was mentioned here a few months back.

Ch

[priffe]

Mokkadem isn't exactly a truth seeker, but it may be a good read.
Anybody familiar with both tuaregs and tubu care to tell if they share many traits?

I guess the touaregs will raise hell for a while and then look to negotiate.
Clearly they can move freely and attack from Mauretania to Niger. Wonder if either side is strong enough to actually hold the region? If the tuaregs, then for how long? Where will they get money and supplies from?

good to have u back cs

[Richard Washington]

Originally Posted by priffe

Wonder if either side is strong enough to actually hold the region? If the tuaregs, then for how long? Where will they get money and supplies from?

AQIM - the millionaires of the region and not far off being richer than the government.

[sherifsalem]

Algeria freezes Mali military support (Magharebia.com)

[Chris Scott]

No real news value this, but a well-shot French film posted recently about the journey across the Tenere to make the (Paris Match?) interview with El Para in his Tibesti cave back in 2004 (before AQIM, even).
I presume it was on French TV years ago, but even if you don't speak French you can get the gist.

Couldn't make a direct link but it's halfway down this page.
It lasts 30 mins and the audio comes in after a minute 15.

Ch

[priffe]

Security offensives trigger AQIM rift (Magharebia.com)

Mauritanian president rates Sahel security (Magharebia.com)

AQIM leader thought to have been killed in Mali border skirmish
http://fr.elkhabar.com/?Un-emir-terr...abattu-dans-un

Large arms cache found south of In Amenas; 30 smuggling corridors blocked by Alg army
http://www.elwatan.com//une/in-amena...159729_108.php

[priffe]

Slate Afrique has some new and old info on kidnappings
AQMI et ses rançons à 100 millions d'euros | Slate Afrique
AQMI, multinationale de l'enlèvement | Slate Afrique
more links in the articles
+ two French hostages nearly made an escape
http://www.lexpress.fr/actualite/mon...s_1088231.html

[priffe]

Suicide attack against gendarmerie in Tamanrasset
Un kamicaze fonce sur le siège du grouppement de la gendarmerie de Tahaggart à Tamanarasset: 23 bessés dont trois grièvement - Actualité - El Watan
Qui est derrière l’attentat de Tamanrasset ? - Actualité - El Watan
bombers were a sahraoui (from Western Sahara) and and an azawadi (from north Mali) وكالة نواكشوط للأنباء::ونا::

surprisingly claimed by the new acronym and alleged splinter group MUJWA
Big Happenings in a Big Desert � al-Wasat – الوسط
also going into the release of hostages, the Mauretanian gendarme and Italian Urru.

[Dave The Hat]

Mauritania says air strikes hit Al Qaeda in Mali | News by Country | Reuters

[Dave The Hat]

BBC News - Al-Qaeda in Maghreb 'threatens Germany over hostage'